Your wall-to-wall Iowa men's wrestling NCAA championship preview

A challenging season for Iowa men’s wrestling could be remembered much more fondly depending on what transpires this weekend in Cleveland, Ohio.

There, the 2026 NCAA Championships will be held – featuring 9 Hawkeyes who’ll lay it on the line against the country’s best.

As much as it can as the highest-profile (and most scrutinized) program in the sport, Iowa enters these championships flying under the radar.

A six-loss dual season marked the program’s most since 2005-06 – the year before Tom Brands assumed the head coaching role. And with only Michael Caliendo reaching the Big Ten finals earlier this month (finishing runner up), Iowa hasn’t produced an individual conference champion since 2023.

All of it leaves one last bite at the apple for these Hawkeyes.

Wheels 🆙 pic.twitter.com/LJ4UqXNUEn

— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) March 17, 2026

Can guys reach their peak level of performance that may’ve only shown up in flashes this season? Can they avoid the dips/lulls which may’ve previously cost them in matches otherwise expected to be smooth sailing?

And perhaps the biggest question: can they combine both of those elements in one weekend?

Because they’ll surely need to if a deep, much less championship run is going to be in the cards.

This is your 2026 NCAA Men’s Wrestling Championships preview. And it’s my pleasure to be your introductory guide for all things Iowa-related as one of this sport’s greatest events arrives yet again.

Planting the seeds

Following its fourth-place finish at Big Tens, Iowa’s fell just short of sending its entire 10-man postseason lineup to the national tournament.

(Penn State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa State and Virginia Tech were the only schools to go 10/10.)

Even so, the Hawkeyes will have at least nine wrestlers competing at NCAAs for the 14^th-consecutive year – and for the 18^th time during the 20-year tenure of Tom Brands.

Based on seeds, 7/9 are projected to finish as All-Americans – which would tie for the program’s most since 2021.

Having said that, if every team wrestles to seed the Hawkeyes would also record their lowest finish since 2007.

Here are the projected team scores for this weekend (not including bonus points):

• 1^st – Penn State (157)
• 2^nd – Oklahoma State (90.5)
• 3^rd – Ohio State (89.5)
• 4^th – Nebraska (74)
• 5^th – Iowa State (58.5)
• 6^th – Iowa (58)
• 6^th – Virginia Tech (58)
• 8^th – Cornell (56.5)
• 9^th – Lehigh (41.5)
• 10^th – NC State (41)

Those same projections would have Iowa without a finalist – breaking a streak of 34-consecutive NCAA Championships with a Hawkeye wrestling on Saturday night.

But then again, wrestling matches aren’t won on paper.

The destiny for these Hawkeyes is and always has been in their own hands.

What they do with it is up to them.

When/How to watch

**all times Central Standard**

March 19-21 (Thurs/Fri/Sat) – @ NCAA Championships

• Location: Cleveland, OH (Rocket Arena)
• Time(s): All day
• TV/streaming: ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN+
• Radio: AM KXIC, Hawkeye Radio Network, YouTube
• Live brackets/alerts/mat assignments: FloWrestling
• Printable brackets available HERE

Thursday, March 19

Session I: 11:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m.

• Preliminaries and First Round
• Broadcast on ESPN2 (streaming on ESPN+)

Session II: 6:00 – 9:30 p.m.

• Second Round and Consolation Matches
• Broadcast on ESPN (streaming on ESPN+)

Friday, March 20

Session III: 11:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.

• Quarterfinals and Consolation Matches
• Broadcast on ESPNU (streaming on ESPN+)

Session IV: 7:00 – 10:00 p.m.

• Semifinals and Consolation Matches
• Broadcast on ESPN2 (streaming on ESPN+)

Saturday, March 21

Session V: 10:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.

• Medal Matches
• Broadcast on ESPNU (streaming on ESPN+)

Session VI: 5:30 – 9:00 p.m.

• Championship Finals
• Broadcast on ESPN (streaming on ESPN+)

As usual, ESPN will be the broadcast/streaming partner of the NCAA championships.

That means multi-mat/whip-around style coverage for the early sessions, with uninterrupted semifinal/finals matches on your television on Friday/Saturday night.

Individual mat feeds will be available on ESPN+ throughout the tournament, as will a ‘MatCast’ feed with well-known wrestling voice Shane Sparks doing play-by-play.

The MatCast typically shows every match in a multi-screen setup, so if there are multiple Hawkeyes competing concurrently that’s the easiest way to make sure you don’t miss anything.

For more details on the broadcast/streaming setup, check out ESPN’s press release for the NCAA Championships.

Steven Grace and Mark Ironside will have their usual Iowa radio coverage throughout the weekend. And I’ll be live-tweeting results/analysis as well – in addition to my daily recaps published on the site.

125 pounds – #8 Dean Peterson (14-6)

A three-time NCAA qualifier before transferring to Iowa, Dean Peterson has yet to make the podium during his college career.

And that means this is his last chance.

Seeded eighth at 125 pounds, Peterson will be tested in his opener against #25 Kael Lauridsen (Nebraska) – whom he recently defeated 4-3 in a one-takedown match at Big Tens.

With a victory, #9 Maximo Renteria (Oregon State) – a Pac-12 champion and NCAA qualifier from a year ago – presumably awaits in round two.

Win that, and the reward figures to be #1 Luke Lilledahl (Penn State) – whom Peterson did defeat 4-1 last season (while at Rutgers). Of course, their two most recent meetings have both gone comfortably in favor of the Nittany Lion (11-5 and 8-3).

A loss in the quarterfinals leaves a wrestler one win shy of All-American honors.

That’s exactly where Peterson found himself a year ago, when he fell via 6-4 decision in the bloodround.

This time, as a senior in the Black & Gold singlet, I think Peterson secures his spot on the podium. And I think his final collegiate match is a win, too.

Finals Prediction: #1 Luke Lilledahl (Penn State) over #2 Eddie Ventresca (Virginia Tech)

Hawkeye Finish: #8 Dean Peterson – 7^th place

133 pounds – #6 Drake Ayala (13-8)

Arguably the weight to watch in Cleveland, 133 pounds is no less than an absolute meat grinder.

It’s why you see the returning national finalists seeded sixth/seventh respectively – the former being Iowa’s Drake Ayala.

For the Fort Dodge native, this is his last hurrah in a Hawkeye singlet. And with back-to-back runner-up finishes on his ledger, a key to his swansong performance could be using that experience to combat any anxiety/pressure brought on by this one last NCAA opportunity.

The good news is that Ayala has been wrestling his best down the homestretch of this season.

I like the odds of it carrying him through to the quarterfinals with wins over #27 Marcel Lopez (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville) and either 2025 NCAA qualifier #11 Tyler Ferrara (Cornell) or #22 Zach Redding (NC State) – a former two-time qualifier for Iowa State.

The trouble is that #3 Marcus Blaze (Penn State) presumably awaits next – and the star freshman has defeated the Iowa senior in both of their meetings this season.

Both have been one-takedown matches, to be fair, with the latter going to sudden victory in the Big Ten semifinals.

As much as I’d like to, I can’t bring myself to pick Ayala in a potential ‘Round Three.’ But I do think he rattles off some consolation wins to get on podium – ultimately finishing sixth, as seeded.

The only wrestlers ahead of him would be a quintet of talented freshmen who’ve taking this weight class by storm – and have yet to lose a contested match against anyone but each other all season.

Finals Prediction: #4 Aaron Seidel (Virginia Tech) over #2 Ben Davino (Ohio State)

Hawkeye Finish: #6 Drake Ayala – 6^th place

141 pounds – #7 Nasir Bailey (14-7)

One of the Hawkeyes in sharpest form entering NCAAs is Nasir Bailey – who returned from injury to place third at the Big Ten Championships.

During his third-place run, Bailey showed both consistency (defeating a pair of All-Americans) and an ability to finishes matches (scoring several third-period takedowns) – two elements that haven’t always been there during his first year in Iowa City.

His only loss was against two-time national champion Jesse Mendez – who’s crushed just about everyone this season.

At NCAAs, he’ll face two-time qualifier #26 Braden Basile (Army) in his opener, with ACC champion #10 Jack Consiglio (Stanford) likely up next.

If Bailey’s in form, I think he advances to Friday morning’s quarterfinal – where he could get another crack at undefeated Oklahoma State freshman #2 Sergio Vega.

If you’ll recall, Bailey and Vega met at National Duals back in November. There, the Cowboy won 3-0 in sudden victory – fending off a standing single leg for 40-plus seconds and then countering the Hawkeye for the winning takedown.

That should give Iowa fans some optimism for a potential rematch – not to mention the fact that Vega also wrestled a nip-and-tuck match with Kale Petersen for six-plus minutes at last month’s dual in Stillwater.

(Vega did ultimately pin Iowa’s backup 141-pounder with a counter cradle.)

Even so, I can’t quite pick Bailey to spring the upset – leaving him a win away from his second career All-American honor.

I think he does get the necessary win – plus one more – en route to a seventh-place finish.

Finals Prediction: #1 Jesse Mendez (Ohio State) over #2 Sergio Vega (Oklahoma State)

Hawkeye Finish: #7 Nasir Bailey – 7^th place

149 pounds – #15 Ryder Block (13-8)

Your guess is as good as mine which version of Ryder Block we see at the NCAA Championships.

Will it be the guy who very nearly defeated #1 Shayne Van Ness (Penn State) in the Big Ten quarterfinals?

Or will it be the guy who has losses against a non-NCAA qualifier from Minnesota and the #24 seed from Rutgers?

I don’t have the answers for you. But what I do know is that this weekend Block will have every opportunity to reinforce and/or dispel any notions as to his true abilities.

As the #15 seed at 149 pounds, Block draws #18 Eugene Harvey (Morgan State) in Round 1.

Harvey is a great story for the recently revived Morgan State program – which is led by wrestling legend Kenny Monday.

With a victory, #2 Jaxon Joy will presumably await – a dangerous, lanky freshman from Cornell.

A loss there would leave Block three consolation wins from making the podium.

I remained convinced that he has the talent to pull it off – or even upset #2 Joy for that matter. But the redshirt sophomore’s match-to-match variance has been too great all season long to reliably predict anything different at the national tournament.

(If it’s any consolation, I think Block’s second round foe actually goes on to win the whole thing.)

Finals Prediction: #2 Jaxon Joy (Cornell) over #1 Shayne Van Ness (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish: #15 Ryder Block – DNP (2-2)

157 pounds – no qualifier

Finals Prediction: #1 PJ Duke (Penn State) over #3 Meyer Shapiro (Cornell)

165 pounds – #3 Michael Caliendo (18-4)

It should surprise no one that my most confident prediction for NCAAs comes in the form of Michael Caliendo.

He’s been ‘Mr. Consistency’ ever since stepping on campus in Iowa City – and produced at the highest level to boot.

His biggest ‘flaw’ has been that he can’t crack the code that is Mitchell Mesenbrink.

(Not that anyone else has fared any better than the Hawkeye in that regard.)

And in an equal parts impressive yet disappointing prediction for Caliendo, I think a similar story plays out yet again for the Iowa senior.

I like him to navigate to the semifinals with relative ease – potentially winning a pair of Big Ten rematches along the way.

Caliendo defeated both of his projected second round/quarterfinal foes – #14 Andrew Barbosa (Rutgers) and #6 LJ Araujo (Nebraska) – via major decision earlier this season.

That could set up another intraconference rematch – this one a payback opportunity against #2 Joey Blaze (Purdue).

The Boilermaker defeated Caliendo, 7-4, in a February dual matchup, but was upset in the Big 10 quarterfinals to nix an earlier sequel.

Should things go to form at NCAAs, the returning national finalists (Blaze at 157) will meet with another spot in the finals on the line.

I think Mikey makes the necessary adjustments this time around, much like he did against Oklahoma State’s LaDarion Lockett in the regular season finale.

And for as cool as it would be to see Caliendo pull a stunner on Saturday night, the most probable outcome is the continuation of an eight-match trend to date – another loss to his Penn State nemesis.

Finals Prediction: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State) over #3 Michael Caliendo (Iowa)

Hawkeye Finish: #3 Michael Caliendo – 2^nd place

174 pounds – #5 Patrick Kennedy (18-4)

Among four Iowa seniors concluding their careers at the national tournament, Patrick Kennedy certainly has an argument as the ultimate Hawkeye.

All about the work and always charging forward, ‘PK’ will finish a six-year journey this weekend in Cleveland.

His quarterfinal path feels straightforward enough, with an opener against #28 Holden Garcia (Princeton) followed by either #12 Carter Shubert (Oklahoma) or #21 Lenny Pinto (Rutgers).

Shubert is a first-time NCAA qualifier who placed fourth at Big 12’s for the Sooners. And Kennedy just majored Pinto at Big Tens (9-1).

Make it through unscathed, and a familiar foe could very well await.

That opponent, #4 Carson Kharchla (Ohio State) owns a 3-2 series advantage over the Hawkeye.

Kharchla won both meetings last season (7-3 and 4-2). And Kennedy responded with a pair of wins (4-1 and 2-1) this season at dual events.

It was Kharchla, however, who emerged victorious (7-3) in their latest clash at Big Tens to regain the all-time advantage.

With a win, #1 Levi Haines (Penn State) looms large in the semis – having outscored PK 21-6 in two prior meetings. And with a loss, Kennedy would still need one more win to become a two-time All-American.

However the quarterfinal shakes out – should he make it that far – I think PK reaches the podium once again. And for someone with his attitude and determination, there’s no way I’m picking him to lose his final collegiate match.

Finals Prediction: #1 Levi Haines (Penn State) over #3 Christopher Minto (Nebraska)

Hawkeye Finish: #5 Patrick Kennedy – 5^th place

184 pounds – #7 Angelo Ferrari (11-3)

There isn’t a more dangerous #7 seed at the national tournament than Angelo Ferrari at 184 pounds.

That feels like an appropriate statement when one’s only contested losses are both in tiebreakers to the undefeated #1 seed – not to mention you’ve already defeated the #2 seed (and likely quarterfinal foe) this season.

But this is where Iowa’s redshirt freshman finds himself – as a matter of circumstance – after missing a-month-and-a-half of competition due to injury and then medically forfeiting out of Big Tens upon securing his qualification spot.

And maybe I’m crazy, but that’s the same guy I’m picking to win the national title despite a brutal draw.

• Round 1 against #26 Chase Kranitz (Pittsburgh) – whom Gabe Arnold majored 15-5 in November (check)
• Round 2 against either #10 Caleb Campos (American) or #23 Ceasar Garza (Cal Poly) – both first-time NCAA qualifiers (check)

From there, all that’s (likely) left is arguably the most difficult three-match run any wrestler in the field could have en route to a championship.

• Quarterfinal – #2 Aeoden Sinclair (Missouri)
• Semifinal – #3 Max McEnelly (Minnesota)
• Final – #1 Rocco Welsh (Penn State)

To run that gauntlet, you’d need to be tough as nails – both physically and mentally.

You’d need to be unafraid of the moment.

And you’d need to believe that you were the brutal draw for everyone else – not the other way around.

I think Angelo Ferrari is that guy. And I think he puts together an all-time championship run, culminating in a table-turning victory on Saturday night.

Finals Prediction: #7 Angelo Ferrari (Iowa) over #1 Rocco Welsh (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish: #7 Angelo Ferrari – 1^st place

197 pounds – #27 Gabe Arnold (18-7)

How can you not be impressed with Gabe Arnold?

Not only has he turned around his standing with the Iowa team and perspective of the sport, but he’s been the ultimate teammate all season long.

To start at 184 pounds, descend to 174 at the New Year, then climb all the way up to 197 by season’s end – all in search of the best way to help the team – is something which can’t be lauded enough.

Now, Arnold finds himself at his second NCAA Championships. And while the affable redshirt sophomore is fond of saying, “There are no weight classes in the jungle” – there’s a reason they exist in the sport of wrestling.

And the sheer physics at play could make for a tough road to hoe at the national tournament for Iowa’s newfound 197-pounder.

Arnold’s lone matches against NCAA qualifiers this season were the following:

• Lost 4-1 in sudden victory to #15 Remy Cotton (Rutgers)
• Lost 4-1 to #16 Brandson John (Maryland)
• Won 17-4 against #30 Kade Rule (Chattanooga)
• Won 4-2 against #31 Kael Bennie (Utah Valley)

Even at a massive size disadvantage, it seems like Arnold can hang with the bottom half of the field – as evidence by his defeats to Cotton/John at Big Tens.

But guys of that caliber (and better) will litter his path to becoming an All-American – which will be a long one if he loses his opener against reigning U20 World Champion #6 Justin Rademacher (Oregon State).

However the chips fall, one thing is for certain: Gabe Arnold has earned himself a whole lot of respect and admiration from Iowa fans (and beyond) this season.

Finals Prediction: #1 Josh Barr (Penn State) over #6 Justin Rademacher (Oregon State)

Hawkeye Finish: #27 Gabe Arnold – DNP (1-2)

285 pounds – #8 Ben Kueter (9-7)

Assuming Ben Kueter wins his opening bout against first-time NCAA qualifier #25 Alex Semenko (Brown), there’s a decent chance just about every single match he wrestles from there on out could be categorized in the vicinity of a 40-60 percent win probability.

And that’s more or less been the Iowa sophomore’s reality all season long.

Carrying a 9-7 record and a #8 seed into the NCAA Championships, Kueter has always shown himself capable of competing with most heavyweights in America.

But so many close, low-scoring matches have led to inconsistent results.

Last postseason, a promising Big Tens (3^rd place) gave way to a mixed NCAA performance (8^th) – albeit one which ended with Kueter on the podium. And it feels like something similar could be in store this go around – especially after Kueter placed fourth in State College two weeks ago.

In the second round, #9 Cole Mirasola (Penn State) would be a rubber match of one-score bouts between the two this season – the latest a 2-0 victory by Kueter.

Win that, and #1 Yonger Bastida (Iowa State) is the favored quarterfinal foe.

Every bit the NCAA title favorite/co-favorite at 285, Bastida is 2-0 all-time against Kueter, including an uncompetitive 11-4 win at the Cy-Hawk dual in November.

Besides that, there are only 1-2 other wrestlers in the field (both on the other half of the bracket) against whom I’d make the Hawkeye a sizable underdog.

Every other match could very well be in the margins. And with that likelihood, I’ll say Kueter wrestles exactly to his seed – placing eighth just as he did a year ago.

Finals Prediction: #2 Isaac Trumble (North Carolina State) over #1 Yonger Bastida (Iowa State)

Hawkeye Finish: #8 Ben Kueter – 8^th place

Short time

There you have it, folks.

I came. I saw. And I previewed.

The hay is in the proverbial barn, and all that’s left is to bask in the glory that is the NCAA Men’s Wrestling Championships.

Have an awesome next three days – whether you’re at Rocket arena in Cleveland or tuning in from home.

We’ve spent all season building up to this very moment. Now it’s time to watch some of the toughest, most dedicated people on the planet chase their dreams – among them, nine Iowa Hawkeyes.

Thank you as always for spending the time reading/following along. And don’t be a stranger throughout the weekend to our daily NCAA coverage.

I promise I’ll do my best here to match the championship effort you’ll see on the mat.