Iowa Baseball Big Ten Tournament Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini

Welcome to postseason baseball. The Big Ten Tournament gets underway on Tuesday with a quadruple header of games and it’s time for Iowa to get their stay in Omaha started. As the eight seed, they open play today with a matchup against the 9th-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini.

The Hawkeyes enter the postseason with a 32-21 overall record, including a 15-15 mark in Big Ten play, which was good enough for their 11th consecutive Big Ten Tournament appearance. This past weekend, in their regular season finale series, Iowa swept Purdue in Des Moines, racking up 39 runs on 52 hits over the course of three-game series at Principal Park, the home of the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

First pitch for Tuesday’s game between the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini is scheduled for approximately 1:00pm CT on the Big Ten Network. It will be the 235th all-time meeting between the two programs. Iowa won two out of three in Iowa City just a couple weeks back, winning the first two games of the series before dropping the series finale. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 all-time against Illinois at the Big Ten Tournament, while they are 6-4 in Big Ten Tournament openers under Rick Heller.

Illinois Fighting Illini (28-25, 14-16)

Picked 11th in the D1Baseball preseason poll, Illinois finished the regular season with a 28-25 record, including a 14-16 mark in Big Ten play, which was good for a ninth-place finish in the standings. They didn’t finish the regular season with the best form, winning just one of their last six Big Ten series, including dropping two of three against Indiana this past weekend. Despite that, they have wins over #24 Coastal Carolina, #14 Oregon, #20 Nebraska and Purdue, so that shows what they’re capable of.

The Fighting Illini offense ranks in the lower half of the Big Ten in most categories, averaging 5.9 runs and 8.4 hits per game. They ranked 14th in conference play in batting average (.257), 15th in slugging (.401), 16th in home runs (29) and 16th in extra base hits (81). That being said, the Illini rank second in walks (151), fourth in fewest strikeouts (217) and sixth in on-base percentage (.374).

As for their pitching staff, Illinois has a 5.84 team ERA, which ranks 9th in the Big Ten. They rank fourth in walks per nine (3.8), seventh in hits per game (9.63), ninth in WHIP (1.55) and 15th in strikeouts per nine (7.1). The Illini have given up five runs or less in seven of their last 12 but allowed 28 runs in three games against Indiana to finish out the regular season.

In games against the RPI Top 100, Illinois has a 9-15 record, with the offense averaging just 5.04 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 6.21 runs per game. The Fighting Illini are 11-13 against common opponents of Iowa. Against those same teams, the Hawkeyes have a 17-12 record.

Projected Starting Pitcher

LHP Regan Hall – A veteran on the pitching staff, left-hander Regan Hall is set to make his third appearance at the Big Ten Tournament and his eighth consecutive start at the front of the Illinois rotation. In 14 starts, Hall has a 5.77 ERA over 73.1 innings, including 69 strikeouts to 25 free bases and 92 hits allowed. Very similar to what the Hawkeyes saw from the Purdue staff, Hall allows 1.26 hits per inning but gives up just 0.34 free bases per inning. In Big Ten play, he posted a 7.28 ERA over 50.2 innings, giving up 1.52 hits per inning. Back on May 1st, in his start against Iowa, Hall allowed five runs on eight hits over 4.0 innings, including five strikeouts to one walk.

Fighting Illini Players to Watch

1. OF Nick Groves – A former Niagara transfer, outfielder Nick Groves has been a strong contributor, now in his second season with the Illini. In 52 starts, Groves is slashing .321/.458/.434, with a team-high 63 hits, 11 doubles, four triples and 26 RBI’s. He’s the top on-base threat for the Illini, tallying 51 walks/hbp, with a 20.7% walk/hbp rate and a strong 10.1% strikeout rate. Over his last ten games, Groves is batting .394, with 13 hits, four extra base hits and 12 walks/hbp.

2. 1B AJ Putty – A true freshman, first baseman AJ Putty is a name to file away for next season and certainly for today’s game against the Hawkeyes. One of four players to start all 53 games, Putty is slashing .301/.389/.488, with a team-high 63 hits, 13 doubles, eight home runs and a team-high 50 RBI’s. His 22 extra base hits and 102 total bases are both second on the team. His 19.0% strikeout rate isn’t crazy, and neither is his 13.6% walk/hbp rate, but it’s third lowest amongst the normal starters on an Illinois team that has a 16.6% walk/hbp rate. Over his last 12 games, Putty is batting just .174, with eight hits and nine strikeouts.

3. OF Collin Jennings – The most dangerous bat in the Illinois lineup when it comes to power potential, outfielder Collin Jennings is a possible game-changer with his bat. In 53 starts, Jennings is slashing .251/.392/.560, with 48 hits, eight doubles, a team-high 15 home runs and 46 RBI’s. His 23.7% strikeout rate is the second highest amongst starters, but he also has a 19.1% walk/hbp rate, racking up 45 walks/hbp, which is second most amongst normal starters. Over his last ten games, Jennings is batting .286, with ten hits, seven extra base hits and eight free bases.

4. LHP Reed Gannon – It’s always hard to get inside the head of an opposing coaching staff and guess who might make an appearance in a single game setting. If this game is close into the late innings, it’s hard to imagine they won’t turn to left-hander Reed Gannon for 4-6 outs. In a team-high 20 appearances, Gannon has a 4.38 ERA over 37.0 innings, including 29 strikeouts to 14 free bases and 34 hits allowed. Gannon has allowed one run or less in 17 of 20 outings this season and would have a 2.70 ERA if it wasn’t for his outing against Oregon. He tossed a scoreless inning against Iowa with one hit and one strikeout.

Iowa Hawkeyes (32-21, 15-15)

The Hawkeyes enter the Big Ten Tournament trending in the right direction, having won 14 of their last 20 games, including sweeping Purdue in Des Moines to close out the regular season. The lone blip during that stretch was a three-game sweep in Lincoln, but they won four of their final five series, grabbing two sweeps over that stretch.

Through the latter half of the regular season, the Hawkeye offense has picked up the pace, providing much-needed help to a young pitching staff. During their 5-10 start in Big Ten play, the offense averaged just 4.73 runs and 8.13 hits per game. That has ticked all the way up to 8.27 runs and 10.80 hits per game during their 10-5 finish to the conference season. In Big Ten play, Iowa ranked sixth in average (.280), seventh in on-base percentage (.370) and eighth in slugging (.471).

As for the pitching staff, it’s been a season-long work in progress with eyes on the future, but they’ve done enough, alongside the offense, to win games down the stretch. Over the last five weekends, the staff is allowing 6.53 runs per game, which is down from 7.67 runs per game over the first five weekends. The biggest development, although it’s risky, is the way they’ve limited damage, averaging 9.53 stranded baserunners per game over the last 15, which is up from 7.40 over the first 15 when they were allowing more runs per game.

Entering the Big Ten Tournament, senior infielder Caleb Wulf leads the Big Ten in batting average (.381), while senior infielder Gable Mitchell is fourth (.375) and leads the team in on-base percentage (.467). Outfielder Kooper Schulte leads the team in extra base hits (28), followed by Mitchell (25) and Joey Nerat (24).

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Maddux Frese – It’s been a tough couple of weeks for the former Southeastern CC transfer, but if the Hawkeyes are going to make a run in Omaha this week, right-hander Maddux Frese has to be the guy to get them off to a good start. In 14 appearances, with eight starts, Frese has a 3.62 ERA over 64.2 innings, including 38 strikeouts to 23 walks and 60 hits allowed. Maddux, prior to his last two starts, completed 5.0+ innings in five of six outings, posting a 2.04 ERA over that stretch, giving up just 0.68 hits per inning. If he can get back to that form, the Hawkeyes will have a great chance to win. In his start against the Illini, Frese allowed three runs, all unearned, on five hits over 6.0 innings, including three strikeouts and two walks.

Final Thought

Coach Rick Heller has his team playing about as well as you could hope for heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Not only are they coming off a series where they scored 39 runs in 52 games. It’s still an interesting game because both teams in this game need to win the entire thing if they’re going to play past this week. How does each coaching staff play it with that in mind? Best case scenario for the Hawkeyes, they get an offensive performance similar to what they got against Purdue, allowing them to get Maddux Frese out of the game early enough for them to bring him back on Saturday. It’s time to throw everything at the wall and see what happens. I like Iowa to move on to a Wednesday game against the winner of the matchup between Purdue and Michigan State.