Iowa Baseball Big Ten Tournament Preview: Purdue Boilermakers

Postseason baseball continues from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha. The Iowa Baseball team, however, has a long path to navigate to keep their season alive. They’ve fallen to the loser’s bracket and will go up against Purdue today, with the winner advancing to face #1 UCLA in Friday’s quarterfinals, while the loser will go home.

The Hawkeyes, with the loss to Michigan State, have a 33-22 overall record, including a 15-15 mark in Big Ten play, which was good enough for their 11th consecutive Big Ten Tournament appearance. To close out the regular season, Iowa won 14 of their last 20 games, including four of their final five series in conference play.

First pitch for Thursday’s game between the Hawkeyes and Boilermakers is scheduled for approximately 2:03pm CT on the Big Ten Network. It will be the 184th all-time meeting between the two programs. Iowa has won 19 of the last 25 meetings against the Boilers under Rick Heller, including a three-game sweep at Principal Park to close out the regular season.

Purdue Boilermakers (36-19, 18-12)

Picked 16th in the D1Baseball preseason poll, Purdue was the surprise of the season, entering today with a 35-19 overall record and an 18-12 mark in Big Ten play, which was good for a tie for fifth in the standings. The Boilermakers have been back-and-forth in the battle for an NCAA at-large bid. They won eight of nine in early April but followed it up with a four-game losing streak. A seven-game win streak got them back in a good spot and then they lost four more, getting swept by Iowa and beat by Michigan State in their tournament opener. They kept their season alive on Wednesday defeating Illinois in an elimination game.

The Boilermakers offense ranked near the top of the league in conference games only, averaging 7.53 runs and 10.23 hits per game, with both marks ranking in the top three. They also ranked first in doubles (75), first in extra base hits (128), second in average (.297), second in slugging (.514) and third in on-base percentage (.393).

As for their pitching staff, in conference play, Purdue posted a 6.35 team ERA, which ranked 11th in the Big Ten. They ranked 14th in opponent average (.306), 16th in hits per game allowed (10.97) and 17th in strikeouts per nine (6.3) but found success because they were tied for second in walks per nine (3.6).

In games against the RPI Top 100, Purdue has a 13-14 record, with the offense averaging 6.70 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 6.96 runs per game. The Boilermakers are 15-8 against common opponents of Iowa. Against those same teams, the Hawkeyes have a 13-10 record.

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Austin Klug – Used as a starter and a reliever early in the year, senior right-hander Austin Klug has become a full-time starter in the Boilers rotation. In 18 appearances, with 12 starts, Klug has a 5.57 ERA over 53.1 innings, including 38 strikeouts to 30 free bases and 58 hits allowed. Since moving into the rotation, Klug has a 6.68 ERA, but did have starts against Northwestern and Ohio State where he combined to allow just one earned run over 12.0 innings. Last time out, against Iowa in the regular season finale, Klug gave up six runs on six hits over 1.2 innings, including one strikeout and one walk.

Boilermakers Players to Watch

1. 3B Sam Flores – A former McLennan CC/Kansas State transfer, third baseman Sam Flores has put together a breakout season with the Boilers. One of two players to start all 55 games for Purdue, Flores is slashing .323/.418/.562, with a team-high 70 hits, a team-high 17 doubles, a team-high 11 home runs and a team-high 53 RBI’s. Despite his power, Flores has done a good job limiting strikeouts, with a 16.5% strikeout rate, while he’s tied for second on the team with 37 walks/hbp (14.6%). Over his last ten games, Flores is batting just .200, with eight hits, but seven have gone for extra bases.

2. 1B Aaron Manias – A former Howard College/Nebraska transfer, first baseman Aaron Manias is in his second season as a starter for the Boilers. In 51 games, with 45 starts, Manias is slashing .338/.476/.606, with 54 hits, 14 doubles, nine home runs and 31 RBI’s. He’s fourth in the conference in on-base percentage, in large part, due to his team-high 44 walks/hbp, including the fourth most hit by pitches in the conference (20). Manias has a 21.6% walk/hbp rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate. He’s coming off of a hitless game against Illinois, but Manias has a hit in seven of his last eight, batting .344, with 11 hits over that span, including three multi-hit games against Iowa.

3. OF Avery Moore – A former NJCAA DI All-American at Southeast CC, outfielder Avery Moore made just 13 starts for the Boilers last season but has started every game since March 28th this year. In 42 appearances, with 36 starts, Moore is slashing .355/.438/.587, with 49 hits, 12 doubles, six home runs and 32 RBI’s. His strikeout rate is up a bit at 21.4%, while his 13.2% walk/hbp rate is on the lower side. Although he’s coming off of a hitless game against Illinois, Moore is batting .476 over his last 11 games, with 20 hits and eight extra base hits.

4. OF Brandon Rogers – A former Arizona transfer, outfielder Brandon Rogers is in his second season with the Boilers, making 22 starts last season. In 36 appearances, with 33 starts, Rogers is slashing .363/.446/.619, with 41 hits, seven doubles, six home runs and 37 RBI’s. He’s got a low 13.1% walk/hbp rate, but his 16.9% strikeout rate isn’t crazy high. Since missing a month due to injury, Rogers is batting .345 over his last eight, with ten hits and 12 RBI’s.

Iowa Hawkeyes (33-22, 15-15)

The Hawkeyes got the perfect draw to make it to Friday with a 2-0 record. They avoided a regional caliber club in Michigan and red-hot Ohio State, while Purdue was upset by Michigan State. However, the Spartans have become the talk of the tournament knocking off Iowa 4-3 to advance to the quarterfinals on Friday. It will take four wins in four days, and six games in six days to keep the season alive past this weekend.

Entering today’s game, senior infielder Caleb Wulf leads the Big Ten in batting average (.383), while senior infielder Gable Mitchell is fifth (.366) and leads the team in on-base percentage (.459). Outfielder Kooper Schulte leads the team in extra base hits (28), followed by Mitchell (25) and Joey Nerat (25).

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Cole Moore – Set to make his first non-midweek start of the season, true freshman right-hander Cole Moore will be tasked with giving a good start as the Hawkeyes try to extend their season. In 19 appearances, with six midweek starts, Moore has a 5.09 ERA over 23.0 innings, including 23 strikeouts to 24 free bases and 20 hits allowed. There’s been some good and not so good for him this season. His best outing of the year was a 4.0 inning scoreless start against Western Illinois. Expect the coaching staff to go with Tyler Guerin and/or Logan Runde after Moore’s outing is done.

Final Thought

It’s a daunting path, and if we’re being completely honest, it’s probably an unreasonable ask for the Hawkeyes to win four games in four days at this point. With yesterday’s loss to Michigan State, Rick Heller’s squad is officially playing every game with their season on the line. Is that one more game? Two more games? A third game? We will see, but Heller coached ballclubs don’t roll over and quit. They want to play the Bruins on Friday. Why not add one more win to the season tally?