Iowa Baseball: Big Ten Baseball Tournament Preview

It is postseason time for the Iowa Baseball team. The Hawkeyes will head off to Omaha for the Big Ten Tournament this week, which has been yearly occurrence under head coach Rick Heller. Prior to his arrival, Iowa had qualified for the tournament just once in six seasons, but they’ve made it in all 11 seasons that a tournament has been held under Heller, including winning the tournament title in 2017.

It’s been a season filled with ups and downs for the Hawkeyes, including, at one point, sitting at 18-15 overall and 5-10 in Big Ten play. Since then, they’ve won 14 of their last 20 games and come in playing confident baseball after sweeping Purdue this past weekend in Des Moines. The Hawkeyes won four of their last five Big Ten series, including two sweeps, entering this tournament as the 8 seed with a 32-21 overall record and a 15-15 mark in conference play. Rick Heller’s squad will be hoping to channel some of that 2017 magic and make a run this week in Omaha.

Top Half of the Bracket – #1 UCLA and #4 USC

The first game of the tournament will come bright and early on Tuesday, with #5 Purdue (34-18) needing a win over #12 Michigan State (22-31) to keep their regional hopes alive. The Boilermakers had won seven straight, but getting swept by Iowa hurt their chances. Still, they won seven of ten Big Ten series, including three sweeps. Their offense ranked second in hits per game (10.23) and average (.297) during Big Ten play, but the pitching staff ranked 11th in team ERA (6.35) and 16th in hits per game (10.97). They’ll likely go with Cole Van Assen (5.79 ERA) for the start against MSU.

As for Michigan State, they just barely snuck into the 12-team field, needing Nebraska to sweep Minnesota for it to happen. They won just three of ten series in Big Ten play, but two of them came against teams in the tournament (Iowa, Washington). The Spartans presumed starter, Aidan Donovan (3.84 ERA), led the league in innings pitched (63.0) during conference play, with seven of ten starts going 6.0+ innings. The MSU offense ranked third in hits per game (9.77), but 13th in on-base percentage (.357), so they’ll have to swing it against Van Assen.

The second game of the day will be a rematch of a matchup we saw just a couple of weeks ago, with #8 Iowa (32-21) going up against #9 Illinois (27-25). Rick Heller’s squad comes into the tournament playing their best ball, having won 14 of their last 20, including sweeping Purdue this past weekend. The pitching staff has been up and down, ranking 13th in team ERA (6.98) and 15th in walks per nine (5.1), but Maddux Frese (3.62 ERA) is set to make the start in this one and he’s gone 5.0+ in five of his last eight. Offensively, they put up 39 runs on 52 hits in the series with Purdue and rank sixth in the Big Ten in average (.280) and seventh in runs per game (6.53). After sweeping the Boilermakers, Iowa could be the favorite to go 2-0 in this four-team pod.

As for Illinois, they come in having won just one of their last six series in conference play, including a disappointing series loss to Indiana to close the regular season. Still, they’ve got four Q1 wins, defeating Coastal Carolina, Nebraska and Oregon, so that shows what they are capable of. Their offense isn’t what it has been in previous seasons, ranking 14th in the conference in average (.257) and 16th in home runs (29), but they are sixth in on-base percentage (.374). Expect veteran Regan Hall (5.77 ERA) to get the start against Iowa, but if they can get past the Hawkeyes, it will likely be Aidan Flinn (2.67 ERA) on the mound against Purdue/MSU.

We’ll get to UCLA in a second, but you could make the argument that #4 USC (42-14) is the toughest draw for any team trying to make a run from the double elimination bracket because it means facing presumed Big Ten Pitcher of the Year Mason Edwards in Friday’s quarterfinals. The Trojans went 20-10 in Big Ten play, and are 12-2 with Edwards on the mound, with a conference leading 2.09 ERA in 14 starts. USC is just 1-10 against Q1 opponents, but 41-4 against everyone else. Luckily for them, they wouldn’t have to face a Q1 team until UCLA in the semifinals. Pitching is by far their strength, ranking second in the conference in team ERA (4.03), strikeouts per nine (10.5) and opponent average (.218). Their offense is the “worst” of the top seeds, ranking sixth in runs per game (6.63) eighth in average (.272) and ninth in on-base percentage (.368).

Awaiting whoever goes 2-1 in the top half of the bracket will be the top-ranked UCLA Bruins (48-6) who won the Big Ten by five games over Nebraska, finishing with a 28-2 conference record. They’re by far and away the favorite to win this tournament. The Bruins are 38-4 on the weekend this season but have had an interesting go of it as of late, with seven of their last 12 weekend wins coming by two runs or less, while they’ve dropped games to Sacramento State, Oregon and Washington. They’ve also been without their Friday ace Logan Reddemann during that stretch, and he might be back for this week’s tournament. During Big Ten play, UCLA ranked first in team ERA (3.08), first in opponent average (.210) and third in strikeouts per nine (10.2). At the plate, they ranked first in on-base percentage (.419), first in runs per game (8.53) and third in average (.294).

Bottom Half of the Bracket – #2 Nebraska and #3 Oregon

The first game of the evening slate will feature a #7 Michigan (32-22) team that really needs a win over #10 Rutgers (26-28) to keep from falling out of a regional spot. The Wolverines had won 12 of 15 to move all the way to RPI 36, but have lost four in a row, including getting swept by Ohio State to fall outside the top 50. They made their money in the middle half of the conference season, going 16-5 after a 1-5 start. Their offense is the worst in the 12-team field, ranking 16th in the conference in average (.251), runs per game (5.00) and hits per game (8.03). If they can’t score, it will be on their pitching staff that ranked seventh in team ERA (5.54). Expect veteran Kurt Barr (4.40 ERA) to get the start for the Wolverines.

As for Rutgers, they took care of business against the bottom of the conference to get in, winning seven of 11 against teams that missed out on a trip to Omaha, but they also have a series win over Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights pitching staff ranks 12th in the conference in team ERA (6.72) but gave up more hits per game than anyone in the conference (11.3). Expect Zack Konstantinovsky (5.65 ERA) to get the start, but he’s got a 7.57 ERA in conference play. Offensively, they aren’t very strong either, ranking 13th in average (.260), 13th in hits per game (8.77) and 16th in on-base percentage (.330).

The final game of the night will feature the hottest team in the conference, #6 Ohio State (29-23), going up against #11 Washington (22-31) who is tied for the worst overall record in the 12-team field. A 13-game improvement from last year, OSU went 18-12 in Big Ten play, but they’ve been particularly impressive as of late. The Buckeyes enter the tournament having won eight of their last nine, including sweeps of Nebraska and rival Michigan. Offensively, they’re led by 1B Dane Harvey (19 HR) and power is their strength, ranking second in doubles (62), second in home runs (50) and fourth in slugging (.485) during Big Ten play. On the mound, OSU is sixth in team ERA (5.39) and will likely go with Pierre Herrenbruck (4.05), who was tenth during conference play with a 3.54 ERA.

As for Washington, they’ll be playing spoiler in this tournament with the worst RPI in the 12-team field (168). The Huskies won three of their first four Big Ten series, but lost the final six, although they managed to get Sunday wins over Oregon and Michigan, as well as a shocker over UCLA to clinch their spot. They’ll likely start Jackson Thomas (5.10 ERA) who has a 1.17 ERA over his last four starts (23.0 INN). As a team, they rank fourth in walks per nine (3.8), eighth in ERA (5.66) and eighth in hits per game (8.77). Offensively, Jackson Hotchkiss is third in the league in home runs (19), but the Huskies rank ninth in hits per game (8.93), 12th in average (.262) and 13th in runs per game (5.67).

A win on the final day of the regular season gave Oregon (38-15) the three seed, but a 2-0 Ohio State or Michigan could be the reward. The Ducks have been an NCAA Tournament lock for quite a long time, but they want to host a regional and it will take a win or two for that. It is worth noting, Oregon was 8-1 against teams that missed the tournament, but just 12-9 against the 12-team field. One of the best pitching staffs in the Big Ten, Cal Scolari (3.27 ERA) is in line for the start on Friday, but they rank first in strikeouts per nine (11.1), fourth in team ERA (5.10), fourth in walks per nine (3.8) and fifth in hits per game (8.17). At the plate, the Ducks slug the baseball, hitting 55 home runs in 30 conference games, but they’re also fourth in average (.290) and fifth in on-base percentage (.388), though they are second in strikeouts (268).

The two-time reigning tournament champs, Nebraska (41-14), will have the inside track to a spot in the semifinals, as they’ll get a 2-1 team in their first game on Friday. A postseason success story last season, the Huskers were just 15-15 in conference play. This year, they’re legit and could be a national seed host if they make in three straight titles. Nebraska has the best offense in the Big Ten and that’s what leads the way, ranking first in average (.318), first in slugging (.523), first in hits per game (11.03), second in on-base percentage (.415) and second in runs per game (8.20). On the mound, Carson Jasa (3.58 ERA) will likely get the Friday start, but it’s a Husker staff that’s near the top of the conference. They are third in ERA (5.01), third in hits per game (7.7) and fourth in strikeouts per nine (9.1), but they are 11th in walks per nine (4.4).