Iowa Baseball Big Ten Tournament Preview: Michigan State Spartans

Postseason baseball rolls on from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha. Another quadruple header of games set for Wednesday; the Iowa Baseball team gets to play in the evening slate after their win in their tournament opener. They’ll face of with Michigan State, with a spot in Friday’s quarterfinals on the line, while the loser will play in an elimination game on Thursday.

The Hawkeyes, with the win over Illinois, have a 33-21 overall record, including a 15-15 mark in Big Ten play, which was good enough for their 11th consecutive Big Ten Tournament appearance. This past weekend, in their regular season finale series, Iowa swept Purdue in Des Moines, racking up 39 runs on 52 hits over the course of three-game series at Principal Park, the home of the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

First pitch for Wednesday’s game between the Hawkeyes and Spartans is scheduled for approximately 5:03pm CT on the Big Ten Network. It will be the 160th all-time meeting between the two programs. Michigan State won two of out three earlier this season when the two teams met in East Lansing, with the Hawkeyes salvaging the series with a win in the series finale. Iowa is 1-1 all-time against MSU at the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan State Spartans (23-31, 11-19)

Picked 15th in the D1Baseball preseason poll, Michigan State finished the regular season with a 22-31 overall record and an 11-19 mark in Big Ten play, which was good for solo 12th in the standings. They’ve won seven of their last ten games, but six of them came against non-conference opponents, including taking two of three from Illinois State to close the regular season. MSU nearly didn’t make the cut for the 12-team field, needing Nebraska to sweep Minnesota on the final weekend to get them in. The Spartans upset Purdue in their opener, leading 7-0 after two innings en route to 8-4 victory.

The Spartans offense ranks pretty well in conference games only, averaging 6.37 runs and 9.77 hits per game, with both of those marks ranking in the top half of the league. They also ranked second in fewest strikeouts per game (6.9), fourth in doubles (59), sixth in batting average (.280) and tied for sixth in extra base hits (101). That being said, MSU ranks 13th in on-base percentage (.357) and 15th in walks drawn (103).

As for their pitching staff, in conference play, MSU posted a 6.31 team ERA, which ranks 10th in the Big Ten. They rank eighth in WHIP (1.51), tenth in strikeouts per nine (7.9) and 12th in hits per game allowed (10.0). The calling card for the staff is limiting free bases, giving up just 3.1 walks per nine, which leads the conference.

In games against the RPI Top 100, Illinois has a 11-22 record, with the offense averaging 5.73 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 6.82 runs per game. The Spartans are 6-11 against common opponents of Iowa. Against those same teams, the Hawkeyes have a 9-9 record.

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Carter Monke or RHP JD Greeley – The Spartans have not officially announced a starter, but they are expected to go with right-hander Carter Monke or right-hander JD Greeley for the start. A transfer from Illinois State, Monke has had plenty of previous success against the Hawkeyes, with a 3.21 ERA in three starts. This season, in 14 starts, Monke has a 4.90 ERA over 68.0 innings, including 47 strikeouts to 22 free bases and 84 hits allowed. Opponents have hit him, batting .302, averaging 1.24 hits per inning, while 41.7% of his hits allowed have gone for extra bases.

As for Greeley, the Monmouth transfer has appeared in 14 games, with ten starts, but averages just six outs per outing, so he wouldn’t be out there for long. He has a 7.39 ERA over 28.0 innings, including 24 strikeouts to 21 free bases and 24 hits allowed. Opponents are batting just .222 against him, but a 15.9% free base rate has helped their cause. Greeley did not pitch against Iowa when the Hawkeyes visited East Lansing in March.

Spartans Players to Watch

1. 1B Randy Seymour – He’s not the top for average hitter in the Spartans lineup, but in a one game setting, first baseman Randy Seymour is a bat you don’t want to see come to the plate with runners on base. A starter in all 54 games, Seymour is slashing .266/.315/.541, with 59 hits, nine doubles, a team-high 16 home runs and a team-high 55 RBI’s. He’s not going to walk, with a 7.1% walk/hbp rate and he will go down on strikes, with a 23.4% strikeout rate. Seymour drives in runs, with 27 extra base hits and he averages 0.93 RBI’s per hit. Over his last six games, Seymour is batting .296, with eight hits, including a two-hit, three-RBI game against Purdue.

2. OF Nick Williams – A former Wabash Valley CC transfer, outfielder Nick Williams is in his second season as a starter for MSU. In 47 games, with 44 starts, Williams is slashing .329/.433/.543, with 54 hits, 13 doubles, six home runs and 26 RBI’s. The top on base guy for the Spartans, Williams has a 15.5% walk/hbp rate and a low 10.3% strikeout rate, going down on strikes in just 20 of 194 plate appearances. On fire through the later portion of the season, Williams is batting .528 over his last 14 games, with 28 hits and 13 extra base hits.

3. OF Khamaree Thomas – A young piece on this MSU roster, outfielder Khamaraee Thomas is the batting average leader for the Spartans, ranking 20th in the conference during Big Ten games. In 49 games, with 48 starts, Thomas is slashing .335/.420/.439, with 58 hits, 12 doubles and 31 RBI’s. His 15.9% strikeout rate is middle of the pack in the MSU lineup, but he’s third in walks/hbp (28), giving him the second best on-base rate on the team. Thomas has a hit in 15 of his last 16 games, batting .477 during that stretch, with 31 hits in 65 at-bats.

4. OF Parker Picot – One other name to know, outfielder Parker Picot is another bat in the MSU lineup that has some holes, but can really do damage. In 41 games, with 33 starts, Picot is slashing .287/.351/.690, with 37 hits, ten doubles, 14 home runs and 41 RBI’s. Even better than Seymour, Picot averages 1.11 RBI’s per hit. However, he has a low 10.4% walk/hbp rate and a staggering 37.5% strikeout rate. Picot has a hit in ten of his last 11 games, batting .346, with 18 hits and 12 extra base hits, but also 14 strikeouts.

Iowa Hawkeyes (33-21, 15-15)

The Hawkeyes went down 4-0 in the top of the first in their tournament opener on Tuesday against Illinois, but playing from behind and winning has worked as of late. They scored three runs in the second inning to get back in the game, but didn’t lead until the seventh, plating five runs, which catapulted them to a 10-6 win. Iowa is now 7-4 in Big Ten Tournament openers under Rick Heller.

Entering today’s game, senior infielder Caleb Wulf leads the Big Ten in batting average (.386), while senior infielder Gable Mitchell is fifth (.368) and leads the team in on-base percentage (.467). Outfielder Kooper Schulte leads the team in extra base hits (28), followed by Mitchell (25) and Joey Nerat (25).

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Tyler Guerin – Although Rick Heller didn’t officially name Tyler Guerin the starter when he spoke with the media after the Illinois game, but it seems like the most likely pick. If Guerin makes the start, it will be his ninth of the season. In 17 appearances, with eight starts, Guerin has a 7.16 ERA over 49.0 innings, including 40 strikeouts to 52 free bases and 55 hits allowed. The longer he could go in his start, the better for the pitching staff, but Tyler is averaging just 11.0 outs per start since moving back into the rotation as an opener. Last time out, against Purdue, Guerin allowed four runs on six hits over 2.2 innings, including two strikeouts to six free bases.

Final Thought

The Hawkeyes could not have asked for a better setup for their half of the double elimination bracket. They avoided Michigan and red-hot Ohio State, while Michigan State upset Purdue on day one of the tournament. Even though Iowa dropped two of three in East Lansing, that series started 61 days ago. Now, the Hawkeyes are playing their last baseball, with wins in 15 of their last 21 and there’s no reason why they should not be playing USC on Friday morning. We’ve seen a couple of teams (Michigan and Washington) get really good starts from unexpected starters and the coaching staff would love to see Tyler Guerin be the next one. If the offense can stay hot, the Hawkeyes will be playing on Friday.