Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Purdue Boilermakers

WEEKEND SERIES: VS PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (34-15, 18-9)

We have reached the final week of the Big Ten season. There’s still plenty to figure out when it comes to seeding for the Big Tournament in Omaha, but the Iowa Baseball team will be there. They’ve made 11 consecutive tournament appearances, which trails only Michigan (12) for the longest active streak. This weekend, the Hawkeyes will close out the regular season by hosting the Purdue Boilermakers for a three-game series at Principal Park in Des Moines. The series opener will mark the 181st all-time meeting between the two programs, with Iowa holding a 107-72-1 lead in the series. Iowa has won 16 of 22 meetings against the Boilers under Rick Heller, but the two sides did not meet last season. The Hawkeyes took two of three from Purdue in West Lafayette during the ’24 season.

The Boilermakers are led by seventh-year head coach Greg Goff, who has compiled a 174-145 record and is trying to take Purdue to their first NCAA regional since 2018. They come into the final weekend of the regular season with a 34-15 overall record and an 18-9 mark in Big Ten play, which is good for a tie for fourth place in the standings with Oregon. Purdue does come in on a seven-game winning streak, including consecutive series sweeps against Murray State and Indiana.

As for the Hawkeyes, they enter this weekend with a 29-21 overall record and currently sit in solo ninth place in the Big Ten standings with a 12-15 record. After an 11-2 stretch that included a sweep of Indiana and a series win over Illinois, the Hawkeyes were swept by 25th-ranked Nebraska last weekend. They did, however, clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament with OSU’s walk off win over Michigan State on Sunday.

Purdue Last 10 Games (7-3)

April 24-26 at USC: L 4-3, L 6-1, L 11-4 April 29 vs Southern Indiana: W 5-1 May 1-3 vs Murray State: W 7-3, W 11-4, W 17-8 May 8-10 vs Indiana: W 11-9, W 5-4, W 11-8

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Maddux Frese (Thursday) – On a pitching staff that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in ERA, right-hander Maddux Frese has by far been the best arm in the Hawkeyes rotation. The move throw him in the series opener signals that the coaching staff plans to start him in the Big Ten Tournament opener on Tuesday. In 13 appearances, with seven starts, Frese has a 3.16 ERA over a team-high 62.2 innings, including 37 strikeouts to 23 free bases and 53 hits allowed. He has given up some power, with 21 extra base hits, including 11 home runs, but opponents are averaging just 0.85 hits, despite putting the ball in play in 75.8% of plate appearances. Last time out, against Nebraska, Frese had his shortest outing since moving into the rotation allowing five runs on six hits over 3.0 innings. He had gone 6.0+ innings in four of his previous five starts.

RHP Tyler Guerin (Friday) – Set to make his fifth consecutive weekend start, sophomore right-hander Tyler Guerin has been more of a long opener lately rather than a true starter for the Hawkeyes. In 16 appearances, with seven starts, Guerin has a 6.80 ERA over 46.1 innings, including 38 strikeouts to 46 free bases and 49 hits allowed. Since moving into the Friday spot, Tyler is averaging 11.8 outs (~4.0 INN) per outing but did have a 5.0-inning start against Indiana. Expect Kyle Alivo (3.95 ERA) to follow out of the bullpen.

TBA (Saturday) – For the first time in several weeks, Rick Heller goes with TBA for the series finale and there is some discussion about who might get the start. Logan Runde has made six consecutive series finale starts, with a 6.86 ERA over that stretch. Meanwhile, Jaron Bleeker had be the next guy up, coming out of the bullpen. This past weekend, against Nebraska, Bleeker allowed three unearned runs on five hits over 5.1 innings, tallying five strikeouts to two walks. It was his best appearance since a 3.2 scoreless outing against UIC back on April 22nd. Could Heller go to Bleeker in the regular season finale or will it be Runde again?

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Cole Van Assen (Thursday) – A possible portal entry last season, junior right-hander Cole Van Assen opted to stick with Purdue after posting a 4.28 ERA over 14 starts. His numbers haven’t been as good this season, but the Boilers win with him on the mound, going 7-2 in his last nine starts. On the season, Van Assen, in 13 starts, has a 5.17 ERA over 69.2 innings, including 56 strikeouts to 24 free bases and 84 hits allowed. Opponents are batting .294 against him, averaging 1.21 hits per inning, with 21 extra base hits, but he doesn’t compile things, averaging just 3.10 free bases per nine innings. Last time out, against Indiana, Van Assen was hit around, giving up nine runs, eight earned on eight hits over 5.1 innings. Purdue still won that game and is averaging 8.78 runs over his last nine starts.

LHP Zach Erdman (Friday) – A transfer from Texas Tech, senior left-hander Zach Erdman was mostly a reliever for the Red Raiders, but he and Van Assen have been 1-2 in the starting rotation all season. In 13 starts, Erdman has a 4.70 ERA over 61.1 innings, including 56 strikeouts to 19 free bases and 83 hits allowed. His .325 opponent average and 1.35 hits per inning allowed are both high marks, but he also limits traffic, giving up just 2.79 free bases per nine. Erdman has also had some bad luck, with just 78.0% of his total runs allowed being earned, while the rest of the staff is at an 87.3% earned run rate. Last time out, against Indiana, Erdman allowed two runs on eight hits over 6.0 innings, including six strikeouts to two walks.

RHP Austin Klug (Saturday) – Used as a starter and a reliever early in the year, senior right-hander Austin Klug has settled into the Boilers rotation as the series finale starter. In 17 appearances, with 11 starts, Klug has a 4.70 ERA over 51.2 innings, including 37 strikeouts to 29 free bases and 52 hits allowed. Since moving into the Sunday spot in the rotation, Klug has a 4.89 ERA, including starts against Northwestern and Ohio State where he combined to allow just one earned run over 12.0 innings. Last time out, against Indiana, Klug gave up two runs on two hits over 4.0 innings but did issue four free bases and had zero strikeouts.

SIX BOILERMAKERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 3B Sam Flores – A former McLennan CC/Kansas State transfer, third baseman Sam Flores has put together a breakout season with the Boilers. Flores, a part-time starter with KSU last season, is one of two players to start all 50 games for Purdue. He’s slashing .338/.429/.586, with a team-high 67 hits, 14 doubles, a team-high 11 home runs and a team-high 52 RBI’s. He ranks 8th in the conference in RBI’s and 11th in total hits. Despite his power, Flores has done a good job limiting strikeouts, with a 16.0% strikeout rate, while he’s third on the team with 33 walks/hbp (14.3%). Over his last ten games, Flores is batting .205, with just eight hits, but has eight walks/hbp to six strikeouts in 47 plate appearances.

2. 1B Aaron Manias – A former Howard College/Nebraska transfer, first baseman Aaron Manias is in his second season as a starter for the Boilers. In 46 appearances, with 40 starts, Manias is slashing .331/.473/.592, with 47 hits, 13 doubles, eight home runs and 28 RBI’s predominantly out of the two or four-spot in the lineup. He’s third in the Big Ten in on-base percentage, in large part, due to his team-high 40 walks/hbp, including the fourth most hit by pitches in the conference (19). Manias has a 22.0% walk/hbp rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate. Over his last ten games, Manias is batting .263 with 11 strikeouts, but eight of his ten hits have gone for extra bases.

3. OF Avery Moore – A former NJCAA DI All-American at Southeast CC, outfielder Avery Moore made just 13 starts for the Boilers last season but has started every game since March 28th this year. In 37 games, with 31 starts, Moore leads the team in average, slashing .371/.457/.602, with 43 hits, ten doubles, six home runs and 29 RBI’s. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 15.1% walk/hbp rate don’t really stand out in either direction, but his .364 average ranks seventh in the conference. Moore has been on fire lately, batting .636, with 14 hits over his last six games, including two doubles and two home runs on Sunday against Indiana.

4. OF Eli Anderson – Another former transfer (NIACC) that went from starting a few games last season (19) to a prominent role this season, outfielder Eli Anderson is third on the team in starts. In 50 games, with 45 starts, Anderson is slashing .314/.360/.387, with 60 hits, nine doubles and 34 RBI’s. Although he doesn’t hit for much power, he has stolen 22 bases, which leads the Big Ten. Rarely is he going to walk, with a 7.7% walk/hbp rate, but he also doesn’t strike out much, with a 13.5% strikeout rate that is second lowest in the starting lineup. Anderson has been a consistent bat, recording a hit in 27 of his last 33 games, including 14 multi-hit games over that stretch. He’s coming off of a 1-for-13 (.077) weekend against Indiana.

5. DH CJ Richmond – A First-Team All-MAC selection for Western Michigan in 2024, designated hitter CJ Richmond was limited to 31 starts last season with a hand injury. This season, in 50 games, with 48 starts, Richmond is slashing .259/.379/.494, with 44 hits, ten doubles, ten home runs and 38 RBI’s. Despite a batting average that ranks last in the starting lineup and a high 27.5% strikeout rate, Richmond is second on the team in home runs (10), second in total bases (84) and third in extra base hits (20), while he also has a 16.7% walk/hbp rate. He’ll get himself out in some at-bats, with nearly 45% of his outs coming via strikeout, but he’s also a dangerous bat with runners on base.

6. RHP Jake Kramer – A transfer from DII California (PA), right-handed reliever Jake Kramer spent three seasons with the Vulcans and was a two-time NCBWA All-American closer. Second on the team in appearances (26), Kramer has a 3.60 ERA over 35.0 innings, including 27 strikeouts to just 16 free bases and 26 hits allowed. On a staff that does give up some hits, Kramer’s .213 opponent average and 0.74 hits allowed are both team bests. He has had scoreless outings in 16 of his last 17 appearances, posting a 1.07 ERA over that span.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 0.5 wins. This is going to be a tough series to take, not only because the Boilermakers have their best team since 2018, but also because they are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, so every win is huge for them. That being said, Rick Heller’s team had been going pretty good in the results category, with wins in 11 of 14 before the Nebraska series. Even though they aren’t in the hunt for a regional, they’ll want to get back to playing the way they had been before they head to Omaha for the Big Ten Tournament.

Purdue has been the biggest surprise in the conference this season, but the statistics back up their success. They rank top five in the Big Ten in almost every offensive category, including ranking third in average (.305) and fourth in runs per game (7.94). The Boilers pitching staff ranks seventh in ERA (5.01), but they’re third in walks per nine (3.5). Iowa, at or near their best, can win this series, but Purdue will be favored to win it.