Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini

WEEKEND SERIES: VS ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (22-21, 9-12)

The Big Ten season has hit the home stretch and the conference tournament picture is starting to take shape. Top-ranked UCLA is running away with the regular season crown, but up to six teams are still in the hunt for a regional. The race to make the 12-team Big Ten Tournament is heating up, with both Iowa and Illinois on the right side of the bubble, but not completely safe. This weekend, the Hawkeyes will host the Fighting Illini for a three-game series at Duane Banks Field. The series opener will mark the 232nd all-time meeting between the two programs, with Illinois holding a 135-94-2 lead in the series. Iowa has not won a home series against the Illini since 2019.

The Illini are led by 21st-year head coach Dan Hartleb, who has compiled a 619-464-1 record, including five regional appearances during his time in Champaign. They’ve made the Big Ten Tournament in six consecutive seasons that it’s been held and enter this week in a tie for 9th place. The Illini have a 22-21 overall record, but their 9-12 mark in Big Ten play is just one game clear of 13th place Minnesota. Illinois has lost each of their last three series in conference play, but faced #13 Oregon, #16 Nebraska and Purdue during that stretch. The Illini defeated DII Roosevelt University 11-7 on Tuesday.

As for the Hawkeyes, they enter this weekend with a 26-17 overall record and currently sit tied with Ohio State for 7th in the Big Ten with a 10-11 record. They’re coming off of a series sweep on the road at Indiana, outscoring the Hoosiers 28-8 on the weekend. The Hawkeyes dropped their first midweek of the season Tuesday, falling 13-6 to Illinois State.

Illinois Last 10 Games (4-6)

April 12 vs New Orleans: L 8-7 (10) April 14 vs SIUE: W 16-4 (7) April 17-19 vs Oregon: L 16-6 (8), W 16-13, L 11-5 April 21 vs Illinois State: L 13-6 April 24-26 vs Nebraska: W 10-5, L 12-5, L 3-0 April 28 vs Roosevelt Univ: W 11-7

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Tyler Guerin (Friday) – It feels like Tyler Guerin has been trending in a better direction over the past few weeks. Although he’s in the Friday starting role, the pressure hasn’t been the same with Jaron Bleeker or Kyle Alivo waiting to take over out of the bullpen. The goal has been for Guerin and whoever comes next to combine for 7-8 innings, rather than asking Tyler to do it all by himself. Last time out, against Indiana, Guerin allowed two runs on five hits over 5.0 innings, including four strikeouts to two walks. That’s the type of start they are hoping to have him duplicate over the final few weeks.

RHP Maddux Frese (Saturday) – The Hawkeyes top starter will take the mound on Saturday once again. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it and Iowa is 4-1 with Maddux Frese on the mound as a starter. He’s appeared in 11 games, with five starts, posting a team-best 2.85 ERA over 53.2 innings, including 33 strikeouts to 16 walks and 42 hits allowed. Despite not getting a ton of swing and miss, averaging just 5.54 strikeouts per nine, Frese is giving up just 0.78 hits per inning. Last time out, against Indiana, Frese allowed one run on two hits over 7.0 innings, including two strikeouts and four walks.

TBA (Sunday) – Another week and another TBA for the Hawkeyes on Sunday, but it’s been Logan Runde in the spot for the last four weeks. It’s been a roller coaster year for Runde, with some really good starts and some really short, disappointing starts. He’s got a 4.99 ERA over 39.2 innings, including 36 strikeouts to 21 free bases and 39 hits allowed. When the pitching staff is at its best, they only need Runde to give 4 solid innings, before turning to Jaron Bleeker or Kyle Alivo out the of the bullpen. That’s what he did last week, allowing one run on four hits over 4.0 innings against Indiana, although he did give up three walks.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

LHP Regan Hall (Friday) – A veteran arm for the Illini, left-hander Regan Hall has kicked around the rotation all year, but will make his fifth consecutive Friday start against the Hawkeyes. In 11 starts, Hall has a 5.34 ERA over a team-high 62.1 innings, including 55 strikeouts to just 21 free bases and 73 hits allowed. Opponents have swung hit well against Hall, averaging 1.17 hits per inning, but that is a must to beat him with his 7.5% free base rate rarely helping the cause. The limited free bases also allow him to get deeper into starts, averaging 5.2 innings per start. Last time out, against Nebraska, Hall allowed five runs, four earned on nine hits over 7.0 innings, including six strikeouts to two walks.

RHP Mitch Dye (Saturday) – A former transfer from Lincoln Land CC, right-hander Mitch Dye was one of the most used arms in the Illini bullpen last season and started there again this season. However, he’s moved into the weekend rotation and is set to make his eighth consecutive start. In 12 appearances, with seven starts, Dye has a 6.05 ERA over 38.2 innings, including 35 strikeouts to 24 free bases and 37 hits allowed. He’s been hit a little better as a starter, allowing 1.09 hits per inning, with 38.2% of those hits going for extra bases. Last time out, against Nebraska, Dye gave up eight runs, five earned on eight hits over 3.1 innings, including two strikeouts and three free bases issued.

TBA (Sunday) – Although Coach Hartleb has listed TBA for Sunday, expect to see true freshman left-hander Aidan Flinn to get the start. He’s been the series finale starter in seven of the last eight weekends. In 11 appearances, with nine starts, Flinn has a 3.16 ERA over 37.0 innings, including 37 strikeouts to 17 free bases and 30 hits allowed. The Illini staff doesn’t tally many strikeouts, which is why Flinn’s 9.0 strikeouts per nine is second best on the staff. He’s allowing just 0.78 hits per inning over his last seven starts and his .221 opponent batting average is second best on the team. Last time out, against Nebraska, Flinn allowed one run on four hits over 6.0 innings, including four strikeouts to two walks.

SIX FIGHTING ILLINI PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 1B AJ Putty – A true freshman from in-state, first baseman AJ Putty was top 25 at his position out of high school and he’s shown why in his first year with the Illini. In 43 starts, Putty is slashing .322/.400/.538, with a team-high 55 hits, 11 doubles, eight home runs and a team-high 46 RBI’s. His 20 extra base hits and 92 total bases are both team-leading stats. His 18.9% strikeout rate isn’t crazy, but his 12.8% walk/hbp rate is second lowest amongst normal starters on an Illinois team that has a 17.0% walk/hbp rate. Putty is hitless in his last two but is still batting .333 over his last nine games, including 12 hits and four extra base hits.

2. OF Nick Groves – A former transfer from Niagara, outfielder Nick Groves is in his second year as a starter for the Illini. In 42 starts, Groves is slashing .307/.438/.411, with 50 hits, eight doubles, three triples and 20 RBI’s. He’s also tied for the team-lead with 11 stolen bases. Groves gets on base at a high rate with team-high 39 walks/hbp and a 19.3% walk/hbp rate, giving him a team-best .438 on-base percentage. He’s struggled as of late, batting just .182 over his last eight games, with just six hits in 33 at-bats.

3. 2B Michael Farina – A transfer from Southeastern CC, second baseman Michael Farina was an NJCAA DII All-American last season for the Blackhawks. In 43 starts, Farina is slashing .293/.418/.419, with 49 hits, 12 doubles, three home runs and 20 RBI’s. Similar to Groves, Farina can get on base, with 38 walks/hbp and an 18.5% walk/hbp rate, giving him a .418 on-base rate that is second best on the team. He doesn’t strikeout much either, going down on strikes in just 12.2% of his 205 plate appearances. Farina is swinging it well as of late, batting .382 over his last eight games, including 13 hits and four extra base hits.

4. OF Collin Jennings – In his second year as a starter, outfielder Collin Jennings was the top home run hitter for the Illini last season and is line to do it again this year. In 43 starts, Jennings is slashing .244/.387/.519, with 38 hits, six doubles, 11 home runs and 33 RBI’s. He led the team with 16 long balls last season, but his average was 42 points higher. Jennings 22.3% strikeout rate is second highest amongst normal starters, but he still has a 19.2% walk/hbp rate, giving him a the fifth best on-base rate. He’s really struggled over the past few weeks, batting just .149 over his last 16 games, with just seven hits and 13 strikeouts.

5. 3B Kyle Schupmann – A former transfer from Cincinnati, third baseman Kyle Schumpann is in his second year as a starter for the Illini. One of four players to start all 43 games, Schumpann is slashing .288/.401/.417, with 47 hits, 12 doubles, three homeruns and 20 RBI’s. He’s also tied for the team lead with 11 stolen bases. Schupmann has struck out in 22.6% of plate appearances but has a 16.4% walk/hbp rate for a .401 on-base rate. Over his last ten games, Schupmann is batting .333, with 12 hits and eight strikeouts.

6. LHP Sam Reed – A former transfer from Eastern Michigan, left-hander Sam Reed started his Illinois career as a starter but has been a bullpen arm the past two seasons. He has appeared in 13 games, with one midweek start, posting a 3.00 ERA over 24.0 innings, including 13 strikeouts to 14 free bases and 23 hits allowed. The definition of a pitch-to-contact pitcher, Reed gets 81.9% of his outs via balls in play and averages just 4.88 strikeouts per nine. Reed doesn’t give up loads of hits, despite his pitching style, giving up just 1.05 hits per inning against Big Ten opponents.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 1.5 wins. The Hawkeyes road sweep of Indiana last week put them in a much better position to make the Big Ten Tournament, but they could essentially lock it up with a series win this weekend. Illinois comes in similarly positioned, so they’ll be looking for a road series win to improve their odds. That was the case last week with Indiana and the Hawkeyes steamrolled them on their home field. That was an Iowa team capable of making some noise in Omaha.

The Illini have lost three consecutive Big Ten series, but they were able to snag a game in each series against Purdue, #13 Oregon and #16 Nebraska. Their offense doesn’t stack up with the Hoosiers offense Iowa faced a week ago, ranking 15th in the conference in batting average and 15th in slugging, but they do get on base, with the fourth most walks. The Illinois pitching staff has several decent arms, ranking third in walks per nine, sixth in WHIP and ninth in ERA. All that being said, it’s a winnable series for the Hawkeyes and they should be able to come away with a winning weekend on their home field.