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Inside the recent offensive surge from Carson Tinney

by: Justin Nash04/07/26

The month of February was not as kind to Carson Tinney as fans had hoped. But similar to last season with Notre Dame, Tinney has really started to hit his stride with the Longhorns since mid-March. Currently leading the team in batting average over the last 16 games, he has also started to display the power that Texas fans hoped to see from him at the plate. Let’s dive into the numbers and history behind the offensive surge from the Longhorn catcher.

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Statistical Definitions

  • Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): measures the batter’s ability to both hit for power and average. Similar to Slugging Percentage, wOBA is more complex to account for differences between types of hits and ways of reaching base
  • Exit Velocity (EV): How fast, in miles per hour, a ball was hit by a batter
  • 90th Percentile EV: Measures a hitter’s raw power by averaging their top 10% hardest-hit balls
  • Max EV: Highest recorded exit velocity on a batted ball
  • Launch Angle (LA): How high/low, in degrees, a ball was hit by a batter

The start of Tinney’s career saw him with a relatively mediocre batting average that left fans disappointed in his production. Still, Tinney was getting on base at an extremely high rate. With a wOBP of .436, Tinney was seeing quite a few walks in the first 15 games of his career at Texas. It is hard to call that a disappointing start, but fans wanted to see more than a .260 average at the plate in his first 50 at bats with more strikeouts than hits.

However, this had been a familiar look for Tinney. Last season at Notre Dame, Tinney had a disappointing start in his first 53 at bats (through March 20th). He only hit two home runs and owned a batting average of just .208.

2025 stats through March 20

From March 21 to the end of the season, Tinney was one of the best hitters in the nation with the highest wOBA from that date of any Division I baseball player. He hit 15 home runs in the process and his exit velocity numbers sky rocketed.

2025 stats from March 20 to end of year

Similar to his time at Notre Dame, Tinney has seen a recent surge at the plate hitting a team leading .333 over the last 16 games and slugging 6 home runs in the process. He should have 7 but a 30 mph wind killed a ball with an exit velo of 111 mph, preventing it from even reaching the warning track. In his last 60 at bats, Tinney has a .466 wOBA.

Without a doubt, Tinney is mashing baseballs. Here’s a look at some of his average exit velocities across the 2026 season

  • 92.3 Avg EV
  • 94.0 Air EV
  • 112.3 90th EV
  • 119.8 Max EV
  • 15.0 Avg LA

Comparing those numbers to his full season from 2025, Tinney is reaching a higher exit velocity in his top 10% of hardest hit baseballs. All have a similar launch angle as well.

2025 full season stats

Time will tell us if Tinney can continue his offensive stretch at the plate. If last year is any sign of what will come in the final half of the season, Tinney should have an exciting end to 2026 with a lot of power.

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