Despite a weekend loss, Texas is still primed to take one of the coveted Top 8 National Seeds

Last Monday might’ve been the most enjoyable start to the week for Texas fans all season.

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The Longhorns had taken down No. 10 Mississippi State, an important win to stay as a top-three team in the SEC, and in some rankings, the nation. With the postseason so close, it felt like Texas was in the driver’s seat heading down the stretch.

Today might’ve been one of the worst wake-ups of the season for Texas fans, maybe outside of the A&M series.

One week later and the Longhorns had their second series loss of the year, losing to unranked Tennessee in Knoxville in a pretty embarrassing fashion in the first two games. The Longhorns gave up an uncharacteristic 25 runs over the weekend; they gave up 11 fewer the week prior to a better offense and team.

While the vibes around the program are down from the fan base, that’s what happens when you lose to an unranked team and have multiple injury flare-ups; the position the Longhorns are in is actually a very advantageous one in the pursuit of the holy grail in college baseball: a top eight national seed.

Why do you hear that term so much?

It’s because of the way the NCAA’s Field of 64 works. The first round features all 64 teams, split into 16 regionals. The best 16 teams in the nation host three other programs, a clear advantage. But why the top eight?

That’s because the 16 winners of those regionals advance to the Super Regionals, and the host sites are picked in a similar way, choosing the eight highest ranked teams.

Being a top eight national seed means you are a guaranteed host leading up to Omaha, given you aren’t eliminated before them. It’s a clear advantage, being able to play in the ballpark you’re most comfortable in, in front of your own supporters.

So as the Longhorn fans today got up, brushed their teeth and drank some coffee, they were greeted to a notification from D1 Baseball: Texas was the No. 6 team in the nation, jumped by Georgia and Auburn.

That doesn’t feel great; you may be only three spots away from being out of that national seed, but that lacks context.

Texas is the No. 6 RANKED team, but RPI still has them third behind UCLA and Georgia Tech. RPI plays a heavy influence in the decisions of who is seeded where and who makes the tournament.

Texas is also comfortably in the top eight in other metrics. DSR has Texas fifth, as close to No. 1 UCLA than No. 8 Florida State.

Warren Nolan’s ELO has Texas as the No. 6 team, closer to No. 3 Georgia than No. 8 Texas A&M. And Pear Ratings sits Texas as its No. 3 team, heavily separated from the bubble.

Here’s how that looks averaged out:

These are the composite rankings for what are generally seen as the 17 best teams in college baseball right now. Texas is one of eight SEC teams represented here, with Arkansas just barely off the list.

As you can see, Texas is comfortably in a tier of its own inside the top 5-6 teams, sandwiched between Auburn and Georgia.

This is because Georgia is not favored by RPI, mostly because of its strength of schedule. Texas is actually third in the nation in terms of strength of schedule, while Georgia is 56th, only behind USC on this list.

There’s also a degree of separation with No. 7 Texas A&M, which is behind Texas in every ranking or rating you can find.

Texas is in a really advantageous spot, as these rating systems would never knock them for winning a series, even if one game is dropped.

The Longhorns thankfully finish the season with Missouri, comfortably the worst team in the SEC. They are 122nd in RPI on the year.

All Texas has to do is win 2/3 games, and they’ll have no reason to sweat a Top 8 National Seed position.

Despite playing each other over the weekend, Auburn and Georgia, as well as the other three teams above Texas, have zero worries about securing their spots in the top 8. The fight will likely come down to the final two positions, where six teams stand out.

The winner of Texas A&M and Mississippi State this weekend likely determines one of these spots, while Oregon St, Florida St, West Virginia and Alabama all have strong arguments in their favor. If Alabama is able to sweep, or even just beat Ole Miss this weekend, they’ll be in a great spot. FSU and WVU also play top-tier opponents in the ACC and B12.

Barring an unlikely catastrophe, Texas has positioned itself very well as we approach the midway point of May. That’s what winning all but two weekend series with the second-best record in the best conference in the nation does for you.