Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers

WEEKEND SERIES: AT #25 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (34-14, 17-7)

The Big Ten season has hit the home stretch and with two weeks remaining, there’s still a lot to figure out. Top-ranked UCLA has already clinched the regular season crown, but up to six teams are still in the hunt for a regional. The race to make the 12-team Big Ten Tournament is pretty chaotic, with Iowa nearly safe on the right side of the chaos. This weekend, the Hawkeyes will travel to Lincoln for a three-game series against the 25th-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers at Haymarket Park. The series opener will mark the 61st all-time meeting between the two programs, with Iowa holding a 32-28 lead in the series. Iowa has won eight of the last 12 meetings, including taking two of three in Iowa City last season.

The Huskers are led by seventh-year head coach Will Bolt, who has compiled a 204-140-1 record, including three regional appearances during his time in Lincoln. They’ve won back-to-back Big Ten Tournament titles but have played to their talent level during the regular season this year. The Huskers have a 34-14 overall record and a 17-7 mark in Big Ten play, which is good for a tie for third place in the standings with Oregon. They have, however, lost five of their last eight games, including getting swept by Ohio State in Columbus this past weekend.

As for the Hawkeyes, they enter this weekend with a 29-18 overall record and currently sit in solo eighth place in the Big Ten standings with a 12-12 record. They come into this series having won seven of their last nine in conference play, including a series win over Illinois this past weekend. The Hawkeyes defeated St Thomas 14-4 (8) on Tuesday in their final home game of the season.

Nebraska Last 10 Games (5-5)

April 18-19 vs USC: W 12-2 (7), W 16-6 (8) April 21 at Kansas: L 9-7 April 24-26 at Ilinois: L 10-5, W 12-5, W 3-0 April 28 vs Kansas State: W 7-6 May 1-3 at Ohio State: L 2-1, L 7-3, L 10-1

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Tyler Guerin (Friday) – For the fourth consecutive weekend, the Hawkeyes will go with right-hander Tyler Guerin on Friday night. Since moving into the role of extended opener, Guerin has posted a 5.43 ERA over 11.2 innings. It has worked, as Iowa has won three straight series openers, but his free bases are still a major work in progress, as he is giving up a 24.1% free base rate in his last three starts. Last time out, against Illinois, Guerin allowed two runs on three hits over 3.0 innings but had just two strikeouts to five free bases.

RHP Maddux Frese (Saturday) – Due to his recent run of form, right-hander Maddux Frese has quietly put his name in the conversation as one of the best starters in the Big Ten. Over his last five starts, Frese has a 2.38 ERA, which has lowered his overall ERA, in 12 appearances, to 2.56, which is tied for third best in the conference. He’s gone 5.0+ innings in five of his last six outings, while Iowa is 5-1 with him on the mound as a starter. Last time out, against Illinois, Frese gave up three runs, all unearned, on five hits over 6.0 innings, including three strikeouts to two walks.

TBA (Sunday) – The same story as last week, Rick Heller goes with a TBA on Sunday, but there’s a very, very high likelihood that right-hander Logan Runde will get the start. Although the Hawkeyes have played their best baseball as of late, they have lost three of their last four on Sunday, giving up 8.5 runs per game. Free bases have crept up on Runde the last few weeks. After posting a 9.9% free base rate over his first nine appearances, he’s giving up a 17.2% free base rate, as well as 1.38 hits per inning over his last four starts. Last time out, against Illinois, Runde allowed four runs on six hits over 3.1 innings, including three strikeouts and three free bases.

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Carson Jasa (Friday) – The Saturday starter for the bulk of the season, some recent shuffling in the Huskers rotation has moved redshirt sophomore right-hander Carson Jasa to the top of the rotation. In 12 starts, Jasa has a 3.68 ERA over a team-high 63.2 innings, including 85 strikeouts to 45 free bases and 49 hits allowed. He’s done a good job of limiting power, with just 26.5% of his hits allowed going for extra bases. That’s the best out of six Huskers pitchers with 30+ innings pitched. This past weekend, against Ohio State, Jasa had a streak of eight starts ending in a Husker win snapped but gave up just two runs on four hits over 6.0 innings. Jasa has posted a 2.77 ERA over his last nine starts (52.0 INN), averaging 5.2 innings per start.

RHP Ty Horn (Saturday) – The Huskers Friday night ace to open the season, junior right-hander Ty Horn made nine starts, with eight coming on Friday, before moving to the bullpen for the past three weekends. Now, he’s back in rotation, set to make his tenth start. In 18 appearances, with nine starts, Horn has a 4.06 ERA over 62.0 innings, including 61 strikeouts to 29 free bases and 57 hits allowed. As a starter, Horn has a 4.68 ERA, while he has posted a 2.76 ERA over nine relief appearances. He’s done an impressive job limiting free bases, with no walks and just one hit by pitch over his last 75 batters faced. Last time out, against OSU, Horn appeared in two games, allowing two solo home runs and three total hits over 2.2 innings in the series finale.

RHP Gavin Blachowicz (Sunday) – A sophomore right-hander, Gavin Blachowicz has been shuffled around as much as anyone on the staff. He’s been a midweek starter, a Saturday starter, a Sunday starter and even has one appearance out of the bullpen. In 12 appearances, with 11 starts, Blachowicz has a 3.08 ERA over 52.2 innings, including 58 strikeouts to 31 free bases and 40 hits allowed. Although his 10.0% walk rate is solid, he has been a bit wild still with nine hit by pitches and ten wild pitches. Last time out, against Ohio State, Blachowicz gave up four runs on three hits over 4.2 innings, including four strikeouts and two walks.

SIX HUSKERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. SS Dylan Carey – A veteran for the Huskers who seems like he’s been around since the beginning of time, shortstop Dylan Carey has played in 223 career games. In 47 starts, Carey is easily having the best season of his career, slashing .352/.423/.632, with 68 hits, a team-high 14 doubles, a team-high 12 home runs and a team-high 55 RBI’s. He came into this season with a career 22.2% strikeout rate but has struck out in just 17.0% of plate appearances this year, while his slugging percentage has gone up 146 points compared to last season. Carey has struggled as of late, batting just .138 over his last eight games, with just four hits in his last 29 at-bats.

2. 1B Case Sanderson – Another veteran for the Huskers, first baseman Case Sanderson doesn’t quite have Dylan Carey experience, but he has played in 158 career games himself. The only player to start all 48 games this season, Sanderson is slashing .356/.487/.522, with 64 hits, 13 doubles, five home runs and 39 RBI’s. Although Sanderson has a team-high 51 strikeouts (22.4% strikeout rate), his 48 walks/hbp and 21.1% walk/hbp rate gives him a .487 on-base percentage that ranks second in the conference. Sanderson has a hit in ten of his last 11 games, batting .370, with 17 hits over that stretch.

3. OF Mac Moyer – A transfer from San Jacinto CC, outfielder Mac Moyer has been one of the Huskers top hitters, filling the leadoff role in 44 straight games. In 48 games, with 45 starts, Moyer is slashing .378/.465/.500, with a team-high 74 hits, 11 doubles, three home runs and 27 RBI’s. The hardest guy in the Nebraska lineup to strikeout, Moyer has a 10.9% strikeout rate and a 14.4% walk/hbp rate. He’s got 24 multi-hit games this season, but was just 1-for-13 with four strikeouts against Ohio State. Prior to last weekend, Moyer had tallied multiple hits in five of eight games.

4. OF Jett Buck – A transfer from DII Washburn, outfielder Jett Buck has been a big extra base hit bat in the middle of the Huskers lineup. In 47 starts, Buck is slashing .309/.388/.497, with 56 hits, 13 doubles, seven home runs and 41 RBI’s. Buck does have the highest strikeout rate in the lineup (23.6%), but his 20 extra base hits and 41 RBI’s are both second most on the team. Over his last nine games, Buck is batting just .188, with six hits and nine strikeouts.

5. OF Drew Grego – A true freshman from Bellevue West in the Omaha area, outfielder Drew Grego has quietly been one of the top power hitters in the Huskers lineup. In 41 games, with 35 starts, Grego is slashing .318/.410/.553, with 42 hits, eight doubles, seven home runs and 38 RBI’s. His 38.1% extra base hit rate and .553 slugging percentage are both second on the team, trailing Dylan Carey in both categories. He’s swung it particularly well as of late, batting .372, with 16 hits and six extra base hits over his last 12 games.

6. C Jeter Worthley – Another true freshman that you’ll see in the starting lineup, catcher Jeter Worthley is the younger brother of senior pitcher Jalen Worthley. In 43 games, with 41 starts, Worthley is slashing .307/.435/.427, with 46 hits, 11 doubles and 14 RBI’s. Although Jeter is seventh on the team in average, his ability to get on base elevates him towards the top in on-base rate. He’s third in the Big Ten in hit by pitches (18), while his 18.5% walk/hbp rate is third on the team. Worthley has a hit in 15 of his last 18 games, including a five-hit night against Kansas State last week.

7. RHP J’Shawn Unger – The most used arm in the Huskers bullpen, sophomore right-hander J’Shawn Unger has taken over the closer role after appearing in just one game as a true freshman. In 19 appearances, Unger has a 3.62 ERA over 32.1 innings, including 32 strikeouts to 16 walks and 21 hits allowed. His .186 opponent batting average and 0.65 hits per inning allowed are both the best out of six Huskers pitchers with 30+ innings pitched. He’s coming off of his worst outing of the year, giving up three runs on three hits over 0.2 innings against OSU. However, in his ten prior outings, he gave up just two runs on eight hits over 17.0 innings (1.06 ERA).

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 0.5 wins. The Huskers are going through a bit of a rough patch, with losses in five of their last eight, but are still a top 25 team and have a 20-1 home record. That’s going to be tough to beat. Still, Rick Heller has been very successful against the Huskers, posting a 21-12 record, including wins in eight of the last 12 meetings.

Nebraska is a well-rounded team and that’s why they are in contention to host an NCAA regional. They rank first in the conference in hits per game (10.75), second in batting average (.308), third in fielding (.983), fifth in WHIP (1.36) and sixth in ERA (4.70). Their recent form raises some questions of peaking too early after they went 26-4 from March 3rd to April 19th, but their home record is hard to look past. It’s going to be a high-level atmosphere at Haymarket Park. The series opener will be a big one because the Hawkeyes have done very well with Maddux Frese on the mound on Saturday’s but have struggled as of late on Sunday’s.