White-hot Texas battles arch rival Texas A&M in Austin (5PM, ESPN)

Sean Miller and the Texas Longhorns are coming off of two massive victories in the last seven days that have changed the makeup of their season, taking down two ranked teams: no. 13 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, followed by previously undefeated no. 10 Vanderbilt in Austin. They have another chance to prove their hot streak isn’t a fluke when they bring the Lone Star Showdown to the hardwood tonight in Austin.

Texas A&M is another team with a brand new head coach in Bucky McMillan from Samford. His debut campaign has the Aggies in prime position in the SEC this season with just one conference loss so far (double-OT versus Tennessee), sporting a 13-4 overall record with their only other losses coming against talented teams in Oklahoma State, UCF, and SMU.

Aggies roster

Texas A&M utilizes a guard-heavy, multi-pronged scoring attack with six different players averaging double figures. Guard Ruben Dominguez (13.8 points, 46.2% 3P) and forward Rashaun Agee (13.1 points, 8.6 rebounds) lead the team in scoring, while Agee ranks second in the SEC in rebounds per game.

There are some notable Aggies on this roster, players of whom you may have heard over the last few seasons of college basketball. You may remember Texas Tech Red Raider and Creighton Bluejay Pop Isaacs (10.7 points, 2.8 assists, 39.7% 3P), who has been highly effective in a scaled-down role for the Aggies, as well as former Alabama and Kansas guard Rylan Griffen (10.7 points, 2.7 assists, 1.9 steals, 40% 3P), who has been a crucial cog on both ends in the wild system that McMillan runs.

Guard Marcus Hill (11 points, 50% FG) can get into the lane and help facilitate the offense from a drive-and-kick perspective, while Jacari Lane (7.7 points, 3.6 assists) serves a facilitation role, leading the Aggies in dimes for the season. Josh Holloway (5.8 points, 2.3 assists, 37.5% 3P) adds another shooter off the bench for McMillan.

Forwards McKenzie Mgbako (10.4 points, 4.9 rebounds) and Zach Clemence (4.6 points, 3.1 rebounds) are interior presences for A&M, with former Longhorn Jamie Vinson (4.6 points, 2.6 rebounds) playing a tertiary role, serving as a big man in the paint that can help protect the rim.

“Bucky Ball”

Bucky McMillan’s system, made famous at his previous stop, Samford, emphasizes a five-out, pace-and-space setup. Most possessions start with all five Aggies outside of the three-point line. It requires big men to be versatile threats as either shooters or passers – ideally, both. This creates delays for help defense as well as difficult closeouts, requiring multiple steps to contest shots due to the spacing.

The entirety of Bucky Ball is built on dribble penetration. He doesn’t run plays often, instead relying upon his guards to create chaos for opposing defenses by attacking the basket off of the dribble as a first step in any trip down the floor. Ball screens are used, but the centerpiece is the dribble handoff at the top of the key with a re-swing if a possession stalls out. There is no “reset” in the half court; it is continuous motion.

If a defender attempts to help on the ball, the driver simply kicks out to the perimeter for an open three. If the defender doesn’t step out to help, staying home instead, the Aggie guard will simply try to finish at the rim. The reads come from live action instead of a scripted play call, which inevitably leads to high pace, as McMillan emphasizes pushing the ball down the floor after makes and misses, similar to Sean Miller’s philosophy.

Like Oats at Alabama, McMillan’s Aggies want to attack early in the possession before the opposing defense is set, which includes drag screens in transition, letting players leak after a defensive rebound to push the ball ahead, and early three-point shots. He wants either shots at the rim or from beyond the arc; they rank 13th in the NCAA in three-point attempts per game (31.1) and sixth in three-point makes (11.5), shooting 36.9% from deep for the season.

How to defend A&M

Like Texas’ game against the Crimson Tide, they will likely switch 1-4 on ball screens to slow down the drive-and-kick actions. They will have to deal with some mismatches here and there to prevent what McMillan ultimately wants: the opposing defense fully rotating.

The other way to push back against the onslaught of lane drives and dribble penetration is utilization of “no middle principles” – i.e., icing ball screens, forcing drivers to sidelines and baselines, and loading the gap help early in possessions. This aspect is crucial to defending Bucky Ball; the second A&M gets drivers in the lane, the defense will collapse, resulting in open looks from the corners.

Regardless of Miller’s tactical approach, his players have to respond and recover at a rapid pace. They did an excellent job of this against Alabama a week ago, staying close to their assignments in the way a defensive back stays “sticky” on a wide receiver in man coverage.

McMillan’s defensive philosophy

The Aggies will press opponents relentlessly for most of the game, with the goal of turning their opponents over. It’s designed to convert defense into offense and create more opportunities for McMillan’s teams to get into the fast break.

This may sound like a nightmare to Texas fans who watched a lot of last year’s team, but Texas A&M will hit the Longhorns repeatedly with 2-2-1 presses, run-and-jump traps, and playing of denial after any made basket. This is an easy way for the Aggies to get momentum – forcing turnovers and getting easy baskets without the ball ever passing the half-court line. This style also gives opponents less time in the half court to get themselves set.

One of their primary wrinkles is trapping off of help defense while the other players rotate behind the ball. It’s highly rehearsed, a form of organized chaos that matches the unpredictability of the Aggies on the offensive end. They rank 19th in the nation with 9.7 steals per game and force opponents to turn the ball over 16.4 times (10th nationally). If Texas gets sloppy with the ball, they could easily find themselves on the wrong side of several 6-0, 8-0, or 10-0 runs because of how quickly Texas A&M can pile up points in transition.

Like Alabama, A&M’s counting stats on defense are misleading. They give up 78 points per game, which ranks 293rd in the nation, but according to KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, they rank 47th, giving up 101.6 points per 100 possessions. They are aggressive, and will inevitably put the Texas offense into tough spots at certain points. It’s up to the Longhorns to prevent this from becoming a regular occurrence.

Keys to victory for Texas

Offensively, the primary objective for any team playing Texas A&M is ball security. If Texas allows the Aggies to turn them over to the tune of A&M’s season average of 16.4, they will lose this game. They have to be diligent in breaking the press, which requires multiple ball handlers – ideally three or more – on the floor at any given time. It’s likely Texas will play just a single big man at a time. Dailyn Swain can play the 4 instead of the 3, giving Texas another player that can handle the ball as well as provide size on defense.

The other offensive key is that they have to be able to make reads out of traps, taking advantage of the 4-on-3 presented when two players blitz the ball handler. If Texas can make quick reads before the defense rotates, they will find mismatches. Jordan Pope will be a major X-factor; if the Aggies can get to him with their ball pressure, the ‘Horns will struggle, but if he can split double teams with his handle and shoot off of the bounce, Texas can light up the A&M defense. Slip screens and back door cuts will also be major pieces to a victory.

On defense, switching 1-4, denying dribble penetration in the middle by icing ball screens and funneling drivers to the baselines and sidelines, and recovering quickly after stunts and post digs will be required to prevent A&M from getting the looks they want at the rim and from the corners. If they can force the Aggies into contested twos and bad looks at the rim (i.e., off-balance runners and floaters), they can prevent easy scores.

Prediction

Texas is a 4.5-point favorite in the Lone Star Showdown tonight, with a 165.5 over/under and a -225 money line. Plus money on A&M is about +200.

I think Texas wins this game for two reasons: (1) A&M is a runs a less-talented version of Alabama’s offense, and the Longhorns understand the fundamentals of guarding that system, and (2) the Longhorns have been much better about taking care of the ball since the Tennessee debacle, with just seven turnovers against Alabama and nine against Vanderbilt.

Given these are the two primary keys to the game, I like their odds against an A&M team that has yet to beat a good opponent (though they played Tennessee much better than the Longhorns did). If we see the same effort we’ve gotten from this team the last two games, I think Texas not only wins, but likely covers the 4.5.