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Just how good is this Texas Basketball roster? Evan Miyakawa weighs in

by: Evan Vieth04/21/26

Sean Miller has arguably had the best last two months of any non-Final Four coach in college basketball.

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Miller took an underdog Longhorn squad to the Sweet Sixteen in his first year, advancing out of the First Four and putting up a fight to the final moments against a very good Purdue team.

After the season ended, Miller went to work in the portal, adding what is currently a top-two transfer portal class in all of the sport.

Texas lost nine of its 10 most used rotation players to graduation or the portal, but Miller has replaced them with Colorado PG Isaiah Johnson and TCU F David Punch, two top-12 transfers according to On3’s Industry Rating. Pair that with high upside SEC transfers like Elyjah Freeman and Amari Evans, as well as the return of Matas Vokietaitis and freshmen Austin Goosby and Bo Ogden, and suddenly you’ve got a well-rounded squad.

Texas is probably not done in the portal, but they clearly know their front-line rotation. Anyone added will play a role that a ton of options could fill as back-of-the-rotation ball handlers and bigs.

But anyone who has closely observed Longhorn basketball over the last… forever… knows not to place unjust expectations on the team and program. They aren’t the type of regular powerhouse that expects to be a top-five team and national title contender year over year. It’s only Miller’s second season, taking over a program that was in the bottom half of the SEC.

But we have the analytics and resources available to make some sort of educated guess, and one of the most respected analytical minds in college ball has made his expectations publicly available:

Evan (great name) Miyakawa released his ‘Texas Team Roster Outlook’, showing that his numbers view the Longhorns as not just a good team, but a great one.

In particular, one that may enter the preseason as a top 5-10 team.

He’s not the first person who’s said that, as CBB content creator and analyst Ryan Hammer has Texas as one of the teams he’s most excited for in 2027, and likely a preseason top-10 team for him.

What stands out for Texas fans is the metrics right of the roster ranking range. Texas having a top 12-17 offense sounds a lot like last season, but a top 2-6 defense is eye-popping.

It was the team’s clearest weakness in 2026, the reason they couldn’t keep sustained SEC success or beat Purdue, and now it looks to be one of the best defensive rosters in the nation.

That’s thanks to the additions of Punch, one of the best defenders in the nation, as well as Freeman and Evans. Texas finally has wing stoppers on defense, all three of whom have superb athleticism. If Vokietaitis can take the next step as a rim protector, they will be a hard team to consistently score on.

But Johnson is who Miyakawa sees as the star of this team, boasting one of the best offensive advanced ratings in the nation. It’s no surprise that, as a true freshman, he averaged 17 points on a below-average team in a major conference with strong efficiency. Even a small jump has him as a 20 PPG player in a good offense.

Freeman is actually seen as the second-best scorer (his ceiling is very high offensively), with Vokietatis right behind.

We’ve broken this idea down before on IT, but Texas has set itself up very well for the modern college rotation, where you have a primary four starters and a rotation with your 5-7 players, as well as any extra depth needed for roster holes.

Texas’ front four is clear: Johnson, Vokietaitis, Punch and Freeman. But they’ll have a great rotation of options around them.

Evans can be the lockdown defender and might even start for the team to begin the season.

Goosby has the chance to be the secondary ball handler on the team and a good facilitator of the offense. He’s also a decent defender

Ogden brings knock-down shooting when Texas needs to space the floor more.

Those seven players can probably play about 180/200 possible minutes in SEC play, with a backup ball handler and big man filling in the remaining 10 each. Any returns from Joe Sterling and John Clark, or even Lewis Obiorah and Anton McDermott, are luxury.

The simplest guess of minute allocation is as follows:

Johnson: 32 MPG
Punch: 32 MPG
Vokietaitis: 30 MPG
Freeman: 28 MPG
Evans: 22 MPG
Goosby: 22 MPG
Ogden: 18 MPG
Backup C: 10 MPG
Backup PG: 8 MPG

That rotation may have the flexibility to narrow in the postseason as well, depending on Punch’s ability to play a small-ball five and space the floor and Goosby’s ball handling.

Even without Dailyn Swain, this Texas team is set up to truly compete in 2027. Outside of Florida, a top-three spot in the SEC is wide open as ever. We’ll see how Texas can fare against the likes of Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee with their revamped rosters.

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