Texas projected as a No. 6 seed in On3's most recent 2026 College Football Playoff & bowl projections
On3’s Brett McMurphy has updated his way-too-early bowl and College Football Playoff projections for the 2026 season. Unfortunately for the hypothetical Longhorns, they have dropped a seed in his projection.
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After McMurphy put Texas down as a No. 5 seed in his February outlook, he dropped the Longhorns to the No. 6 seed in projections released earlier today. He would have Texas hosting No. 11 Penn State under first-year head coach Matt Campbell in the first round of the 2026 College Football Playoff.
The old Big 12 South would make up one-third of the 12-team field. McMurphy has No. 9 Texas Tech playing at No. 8 Texas A&M, and No. 10 Oklahoma playing at No. 7 Indiana in the first round. For the 12-5 game, he has first-year FBS program North Dakota State traveling to No. 5 Oregon.
The first round of the College Football Playoff is scheduled for December 18 and 19.
McMurphy has the Longhorns’ campaign ending in the quarterfinals in a loss to No. 3 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl on December 30.
In fact, McMurphy has a chalky final four with No. 1 Miami defeating Texas A&M in order to play No. 4 Georgia, who is projected to defeat the Ducks. On the other side of the bracket, McMurphy has No. 2 Ohio State defeating Indiana to set up a battle between the Buckeyes and the Fighting Irish.
In the national championship, McMurphy sees Miami returning to the CFP finals to face the Irish with Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes earning redemption after last year’s gut-punch of a loss in their home stadium.
Brett McMurphy’s Projected CFP Field
- Miami
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Texas
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Texas Tech
- Oklahoma
- Penn State
- North Dakota State
Other SEC Bowl Projections
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla.
Tennessee vs. SMU
Texas Bowl
Houston
Auburn vs. BYU
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Ed Orgeron returns to LSU on Lane Kiffin's staff
- 2
Judge recused in Brendan Sorsby eligibility case
- 3
NewAhmad Hardy speaks on rehab, Mizzou return after shooting
- 4
Lane Kiffin reveals NFL-like 'fine system' for players
- 5
Bryce Underwood back for Round 2
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Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, Ala.
Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn.
Ole Miss vs. Nebraska
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa, Fla.
Florida vs. Illinois
Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla.
LSU vs. Iowa
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn.
Cincinnati vs. South Carolina
