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Steady vs. streaky will define Sean Miller's first Lone Star Showdown

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook01/16/26josephcook89

A popular stat in college basketball these days is the “kill shot.” Evan Miyakawa defines a “kill shot” as a double-digit scoring run (10-0 or greater). Those types of massive momentum swings can often dictate the terms of a game, especially if they take place in the second half.

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So far this season, the Texas Longhorns haven’t gone on all that many streaks of their own. At the same time, they aren’t letting teams go on kill shot runs.

In the tweet below is a chart from Miyakawa that logs adjusted offensive scoring runs per game on the X-axis and adjusted scoring runs conceded on the Y-axis. The data comes from games versus top-75 teams.

Texas is in the “less streaky” circle along with other SEC teams like Alabama, Missouri, Georgia, Oklahoma, and LSU.

“That actually helps my confidence because if you told me that our defense in fact doesn’t allow runs against us, I would think ‘ehh, I don’t know,'” Texas head coach Sean Miller said Friday. “I do think we’re getting better on defense. I don’t have a great reaction other than this: I think when your team is a consistent team, there aren’t as many peaks and there aren’t as many valleys in your level of play.”

Up and to the Longhorns’ right on the graph is the “streaky teams” category. Those programs go on runs themselves, but they are also susceptible to allowing runs. Saturday’s opponent for the Longhorns, the Texas A&M Aggies, find themselves in that category.

The Aggies play a unique style of basketball under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan. Termed “Bucky Ball,” A&M takes and makes a lot of three-pointers on the offensive end while creating as many turnovers as possible on the defensive end through regular pressing and ball pressure. A&M (13-4, 3-1 SEC) is fifth in three-pointers made per game with 11.5, 13th in three-point attempts with 31.1 per contest, and sixth nationally in scoring with 93.0 points per game. On defense, A&M forces 16.4 turnovers per contest, good for 10th in the nation, while also logging 9.7 steals, a number that ranks 19th in the country.

Six Aggies average double-figures, with Ruben Dominguez and Rashaun Agee leading the way with 13.8 and 13.1 points per game, respectively. Dominguez hits 46.2 percent of his three point shots, while Rylan Griffin hits 40 percent from distance. College basketball journeyman Pop Isaacs is just under 40 percent from three at 39.3 percent. As a team, the Aggies shoot 36.9 percent from behind the arc.

“They have a lot of different guys who can shoot the three-point shot,” Miller said. “You have to close out. You can’t leave certain players. Back to taking care of the ball. If you turn it over, you’re not able to take away that three-point attack because the ball gets out quickly and they find each other in a really good way. Really good passing team. They share the ball. They find each other for these open threes.”

Saturday’s matchup is a battle between two basketball teams with contrasting styles. It’s also a battle between two bitter rivals. Last year, Texas took the season series 2-1, overcoming a defeat in College Station with a win in Austin and then another in the SEC Tournament. Both teams, despite being under first-year head coaches, know the importance of this game not only in the SEC but also in terms of the Lone Star Showdown.

“Our team and everybody here is excited about tomorrow’s game,” Miller said. “Obviously, it’s a rivalry game that means a great deal to our fans, our universities, and each of our respective teams. I think any time you have a game of that great meaning to so many people, you want to be at your best. We’ve worked hard the last couple of days for what I think will be a great game on Saturday night.”

Texas and Texas A&M are scheduled to tip things off tomorrow at 5 p.m. ESPN will air the contest.

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