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Preview: Texas women’s basketball faces Kentucky in the Sweet 16

by: Josh Florey03/28/26

The Oregon Ducks gave the Horns an early scare in the Round of 32, hitting multiple threes and even jumping out to a five-point lead. Then Texas settled in and beat them by 42. 

Madison Booker had a career-high 40 points, and Sarah Graves even got to score twice in what could be her final game at the Moody Center. 

Now, they head to Fort Worth and face the Kentucky Wildcats in the Sweet 16.

Texas and Kentucky have already met once this season during SEC play. The Horns controlled the majority of the game, winning 64-53. But, the Wildcats were a tough out, clawing back to make it a one-point game with under seven minutes to play, before Texas pulled away for the final time. 

Kentucky is 25-10 this season, and went 8-8 in SEC play. The Wildcats are ranked 16th in NET, and certain advanced analytics, such as barttorvik.com, which ranks them as the 9th best team in the nation, like them a lot. 

Kentucky’s offense starts inside with 6’5 center, Clara Strack. Strack gives the ‘Cats 16.9 ppg and 10.3 rpg. Guard Tanie Morgan runs the point, adding 13.9 ppg and 8.0 apg. 

They have strong wins, beating teams such as LSU (2-seed), Louisville (3-seed), Oklahoma (4-seed), and Ole Miss (5-seed) in the regular season. They also have some questionable losses, such as to Mississippi State, during a rough stretch where they lost five of six games. However, this midseason stumble should be taken with a grain of salt, as they were missing an important piece of their team, Teonni Key, who injured her elbow. Key averages 11.4 ppg and 7.4 rpg. 

Kentucky is not without flaws. In their Round of 32 matchup against West Virginia, the Wildcats turned it over 17 times and shot less than 30% from three. But, they out-rebounded the Mountaineers 39-23, leading to their 74-73 win. 

So what does Texas need to do to win?

Outside shooting is vital for the Longhorns. Texas went 8-12 from deep against Oregon, and 5-7 from behind the arc in the SEC Championship. If the Horns can continue to shoot it at a high level from outside, they are nearly impossible to stop. Texas needs players like Booker, Jordan Lee, Aaliyah Crump, Rori Harmon, and even Teya Sidberry to keep making their threes.

Defensively, players like Breya Cunningham and Kyla Oldacre have to be able to slow down Strack and lock down the paint, as Kentucky isn’t elite from outside across the board. Amelia Hassat and Asia Boone will both shoot threes, however, and make them at about a 36% clip each. 

Sportsbooks have the spread at around Texas -14.5, and ESPN gives the Longhorns about an 85% chance to win. Regardless, this is March and Kentucky has shown an ability to play top teams close, so Texas must keep playing at a high level. 

The two teams will battle at 2:00 PM central time on Saturday (ABC) to face the winner of the Michigan/Louisville matchup in the Elite 8. 

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