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The most recent NCAA Tournament projections from national media has Texas in the top five

by: Justin Nash05/19/26

The postseason talk is really beginning to heat up and the projections are starting to look more and more real by the week. With the Longhorns having locked up a top-eight national seed, let’s look and see where the major baseball publications have Texas in the NCAA Tournament and who could be travelling to Austin for the regional round.

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Before we dive in, let’s acknowledge a recent change to the seeding conversation.

Starting in 2026, the committee ranks the top 32 teams in the NCAA tournament. Nos. 29 through 32 will be paired with the top four national seeds, with 32 playing 1, 31 playing 2, 30 playing 3, and 29 playing 4. That goes all the way until No. 17 is the 2-seed in the No. 16 team’s regional.

D1 Baseball has Texas seeded lower of the two major projections, with the Longhorns projected as the No. 5 overall seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. The only thing that has changed in the Austin regional from last week is the 3-seed is Missouri State instead of Texas State. However, this time they have Texas paired with the Morgantown regional and not Tallahassee.

D1 seems keen on sending Boston College to the Austin regional. Oral Roberts has also been Disch bound in quite a few projections as well.

Baseball America has Texas projected as the No. 4 national seed. They too are keeping UC Santa Barbara as the projected 2-seed, which could set up Dylan Volantis vs. Jackson Flora in a prime time matchup in the regional semifinals. Liberty is also a tough ask as they are a very solid team and a dangerous 3-seed in the tournament.

Texas would line up with a potential rematch against the Mississippi State Bulldogs out of the Starkville regional. Though the Bulldogs would have their hands full with a tough task as well; of all the 4-seeds, Lamar is one of the most dangerous.

With very little room for progress in the national seeding, the picture of who may be coming to Austin is becoming clear.

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