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A look at Texas women's basketball's NCAA Tournament draw at the Moody Center

by: Josh Florey03/20/26

For the third straight season, the Texas Longhorns are a one-seed. 

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In 2024, the Horns made it to the Elite Eight, beating Drexel, Alabama, and Gonzaga before losing to NC State. 

In 2025, Texas knocked off William & Mary, Illinois, and Tennessee before beating TCU in the Elite Eight. But, they couldn’t find a way past South Carolina in Tampa.

In 2026, the Horns’ journey begins with 16-seed Missouri State. 

Led by a great performance from Kaemyn Bekemeier, the Lady Bears defeated Stephen F. Austin 85-75 in the First Four. Bekemeier had a 22-point, 13-rebound double-double. On the season, the 5’9″ guard from Missouri averages 17.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg, but turns it over a little more than 3 times per game. 

Missouri State is ranked No. 115 in NET. They have not played a Quad 1 game, lost both of their Quad 2 games, and are 2-2 in Quad 3. 

Overall, they shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Longhorns.

Assuming Texas doesn’t become the second-ever one-seed to lose a first round game, they will play the winner of the Oregon/Virginia Tech game. 

The Ducks are No. 24 in NET, but are 3-9 in Quad 1 games. For the most part, they have struggled mightily against the upper tier of teams, with UCLA and Michigan each having dominant wins over them. They did hang with Michigan in one game earlier in the season, losing in 2OT. 

Katie Fiso leads Oregon in scoring, at 15.3 ppg, and assists, at 6.3 apg. Ehis Etute gives them 12.6 ppg and 8.9 rpg. 

Virginia Tech is No. 40 in NET, with a 3-6 Quad 1 record. The Hokies have also struggled against better teams, such as North Carolina and Louisville, but have not played quite the level of competition that Oregon has. 

Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker are by far the leading scorers for VT, averaging 15.3 and 14.1 ppg respectively. Kilah Freelon gives them 9.7 ppg and leads the team in rebounds, at 8.6 rpg. Baker adds 6.7 rpg.

Oregon has played a slightly tougher schedule, meaning they have more experience against teams that are similar in strength to the Horns. 

ESPN gives the Ducks a 65.5% chance to win, while sportsbooks have the spread at Oregon -3.5.

Texas has been playing very well as of late, winning their last 8 games, including their SEC Tournament run. 

First Team All-American Madison Booker has excelled this year, leading the team in scoring, with 18.9 ppg, and rebounding, with 6.5 rpg. Rori Harmon has run the offense very efficiently, averaging 6.2 assists and only 1.6 turnovers per game. Sophomore Jordan Lee and freshman Aaliyah Crump have both helped to spread the floor with their outside shooting, allowing for players like Kyla Oldacre and Breya Cunningham to excel inside. 

Both the Round-of-64 and Round-of-32 games will be played at Moody Center, in Austin, giving Texas the home-court advantage. Meaning that on paper, Texas should win both games with ease. But, March Madness isn’t played on paper, and Texas needs to bring their A-game every game. 

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