Kentucky is hovering around bubble cut line in latest NCAA Tournament bracket projections

Kentucky ended the season with three consecutive losses. That has turned the Bat Cats from a potential NCAA Tournament lock to the ultimate bubble team. As conference tournaments continue across the college baseball landscape, UK continues to hover around the cut line.

Are the Bat Cats in? Are the Bat Cats out? That depends on who you ask. Head coach Nick Mingione shared his thoughts on Tuesday after the 8-5 loss to Vanderbilt.

“We beat the best teams. If you look at our resumé,” Mingione said. “In order to be considered one of the best teams, you have to beat them. There’s all kinds of numbers. I can spit them out.”

Kentucky is just above the cut line in the latest bracket projections. Baseball America has the Bat Cats as one of the last four in after Michigan was knocked out of the Big Ten Tournament. D1 Baseball also has UK as one of the last four teams in. The Bat Cats are firmly in the bubble zone.

D1Baseball's Last Four In (Through May 20)

61. @ECUBaseball
62. @UKBaseball
63. @NCStateBaseball
64. @umichbaseball

🔗 https://t.co/8pRLy3ZLGG pic.twitter.com/N2mRU7J0fD

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) May 21, 2026

Michigan, East Carolina, NC State, Texas State, Louisiana, and Texas State seem to be the programs that Kentucky is battling on the bubble. Let’s break them all down.

Bubble Breakdown

Kentucky (31-21, 13-17)

• RPI: 37
• DSR: 30
• Non-Conference RPI: 14
• Strength Of Schedule: 29
• Quad 1: 7-8
• Quad 2: 4-5
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 20-8

Louisiana (36-21, 16-14)

• RPI: 36
• DSR: 47
• Non-Conference RPI: 35
• Strength of Schedule: 44
• Quad 1: 5-8
• Quad 2: 10-5
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 21-8

Texas State (35-22, 16-14)

• RPI: 40
• DSR: 53
• Non-Conference RPI: 28
• Strength of Schedule: 32
• Quad 1: 2-9
• Quad 2: 10-4
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 23-9

Troy (29-27, 17-13)

• RPI: 44
• DSR: 60
• Non-Conference RPI: 38
• Strength of Schedule: 10
• Quad 1: 7-9
• Quad 2: 2-4
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 20-14

East Carolina (33-21-1, 17-10)

• RPI: 45
• DSR: 35
• Non-Conference RPI: 54
• Strength of Schedule: 45
• Quad 1: 3-6
• Quad 2: 4-5
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 26-10

NC State (32-22, 14-16)

• RPI: 48
• DSR: 36
• Non-Conference RPI: 90
• Strength of Schedule: 27
• Quad 1: 5-11
• Quad 2: 8-5
• Quad 3/4: 19-6

Michigan (33-23, 17-13)

• RPI: 52
• DSR: 68
• Non-Conference RPI: 64
• Strength of Schedule: 68
• Quad 1: 4-10
• Quad 2: 9-4
• Quad 3/Quad 4: 20-9

Michigan and NC State each bowed out early in their conference tournaments. Kentucky is ahead in Quad 1 wins and every other metric. The Bat Cats should like their chances to be seeded higher than both. It gets more tricky with East Carolina, Louisiana, Troy, and Texas State.

ECU will begin play in the American Conference Tournament on Friday. The Pirates are the No. 2 seed and figure to have a great chance to win the automatic bid outright. Louisiana and Texas State are scheduled to meet in the Sun Belt Tournament on Wednesday night in a Quad 2 contest. The winner will advance and the other will move to the losers bracket. They could then get another Quad 2 opportunity against Coastal Carolina. Troy started its conference tournament run with a win over South Alabama on Thursday afternoon.

The Bat Cats will continue to sit at home and wait. The good thing is that other bubble teams are also waiting. Attention will be on the Sun Belt Tournament over the next few days.