Three things to watch for as South Carolina hosts Missouri

South Carolina men’s basketball returns home to face Missouri on Saturday afternoon. The Gamecocks are in the midst of a season-long four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Tigers have won two of their last three.

Missouri’s latest win came against Mississippi State last Saturday, 84-79. Tip-off from Colonial Life Arena will be at 1 p.m. on SEC Network.

Here are three things to watch as the Gamecocks (11-12, 2-8 SEC) face off against the Tigers (15-7, 5-4 SEC).

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Can South Carolina find efficiency inside the arc?

Recently, the Gamecocks have not been hitting their shots from two. Over their past five games, South Carolina has an average of 45.2% on shots inside the arc. Not only is that mark 15th of 16 SEC teams in that span, but it’s 341st out of 365 D-I teams.

Not every Gamecock is to blame. Meechie Johnson is shooting 52.2% on twos in those last five games, and EJ Walker is making 75.0% of his attempts inside. But Elijah Strong has struggled, making just 39.5% of his shots on the interior in that span. Eli Ellis‘s rate is lower, with just a 14.3% clip. Interestingly, Ellis has shot 55.6% from deep in that same span.

Shot-taking strategies have changed as well. Prior to South Carolina’s losing streak, the Gamecocks attempted 46.6% of their shots from deep. But during the four-game slide, South Carolina’s three-point attempt rate has dropped to just 33.1%. If extrapolated over the course of the season, that would be the lowest average of threes taken in the SEC.

When teams trail, as the Gamecocks have over their past four games, they tend to take more threes. But as South Carolina fell behind during their streak, that hasn’t happened. When faced with deficits, they’ve actually taken less threes. Has that worked? No, but given their recent three-point percentage, it hasn’t hurt, either. The Gamecocks are shooting just 28.8% from deep during their losing streak, one of the worst marks in the nation.

Meechie Johnson is inevitable

Despite the team’s shortcomings, moving the ball inside has been especially helpful to Meechie Johnson. The Gamecocks guard is averaging 22.6 points per game in his last seven contests. One reason why has been his ability to get to the line. Johnson’s averaging 9.4 free throw attempts per game in that span. That’s more than double his season average prior to the past seven games, which was just 4.6 attempts per game.

When Johnson gets to the line, he’s been very efficient on his free throws, too. The senior has made 84.8% of his attempts from the free throw line in the past seven games. That’s good enough to be in the top 20% of D-I guards.

His attempts from inside the arc have risen, too. Johnson averaged 4.9 two-point attempts this season in his first 16 games. But in his past seven, Johnson is averaging 9.0 field goal attempts from two. That’s corresponded with a slight drop in three-point attempts. In his first 16 games, Johnson averaged 5.5 threes per game. That’s dropped to 4.7 attempts from deep in the past seven contests.

Most striking might be Johnson’s swing in points per game. His aforementioned average of 22.6 PPG in his past seven games is almost 10 points more than where his season average sat after the Georgia game, at 13.8 PPG. If Johnson were to average 22.6 PPG over the course of the season, it would be the most points per game in the SEC this season. And if South Carolina is going to upset the Tigers on Saturday, they’ll need a game like that from their offensive leader.

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Leading the charge on Saturday?

One thing that might help Johnson and the Gamecocks get to the line on Saturday is drawing charges while on defense. Missouri leads the SEC with 1.7 offensive personal fouls per game. In fact, they’re the only team in the conference with more than 28 personal fouls on the offensive side of the court this season, with 37.

Only four teams average more offensive personal fouls than the Tigers, and they have the highest rate of fouls on that end of the court than all other Power Five schools. Meechie Johnson, on the other hand, is second in the conference in the past five games with 6.2 fouls drawn per game. Only Tennessee’s Nate Ament has drawn more fouls per game than Johnson recently.

In one stretch of games between December and January, Missouri had four consecutive games with three or more personal fouls committed on offense. If South Carolina can draw fouls on both ends of the court, it could be beneficial for the Gamecocks. When South Carolina draws more than 10 fouls on the floor this season, they’re 5-0.

South Carolina is also efficient from the line when they get there. The Gamecocks are first in the SEC this season with a 78.5 FT% on the year. That’s good for 12th nationally, as well. Amongst players averaging at least 2.5 free throws per game, Mike Sharavjamts is third in the SEC with an 89.6 FT%. South Carolina will likely need to continue to get to the line in order to score an upset Saturday.

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