Three things to watch for as South Carolina faces LSU

South Carolina’s home stand continues with an afternoon matchup against LSU this weekend. The game moved up on Saturday due to inclement weather in the Midlands area. Tip-off for Saturday will now be at 1 p.m. on SEC Network+.

Here are three things to watch for before the Gamecocks (11-10, 2-6 SEC) face off against the Tigers. 

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Coming out swinging worked against the Tigers last time out

The Gamecocks hold just two conference victories heading into the end of January. However, one of those wins came against LSU just a few weeks ago. In that contest, the Gamecocks jumped out to a 43-15 lead through 16 minutes. The 28-point margin was the second-largest lead generated against a Power Five opponent in the Lamont Paris era, behind only a 35-point lead over Arkansas last season.

However, LSU outscored the Gamecocks 53-35 from that point onward. The final margin ended up being just 10 points for a 78-68 South Carolina win. The early cushion was enough for South Carolina to hold off the Tigers, but without the early run, the contest might have ended quite differently. LSU ended up winning the rebounding margin handily, 42-30.

Trailing early has not been kind to the Tigers, as they’re 1-7 when facing deficits of eight points or more at any point in games this season, including the loss to South Carolina. On Wednesday, LSU fell to Mississippi State at home. In that game, the Bulldogs opened a 30-10 lead in the first 10 minutes of action before winning the game by a final margin of 14 points.

Conversely, South Carolina needs to build a lead to win games statistically. The Gamecocks are a perfect 11-0 when opening up a 13-point lead or better. However, the Gamecocks are 0-10 when they fail to lead by 13 or more points at any time in a contest this season. That’s not a trend isolated to this year, either. Last year, South Carolina had a 12-2 record when recording a double-digit lead and 0-18 in games in which they failed to lead by 10 or more at any point.

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Interior defense is a need, not a want, against LSU

Florida bullied South Carolina in the paint, winning the rebounding battle by a 45-24 margin. The Gators scored more points in the paint (54) than the Gamecocks scored overall (48). Additionally, Florida shot 72.5% from inside the arc. That’s tied for the second-highest clip given up from two by South Carolina in the Paris era.

That spells trouble against the Tigers, as LSU’s offense runs through the inside. They’re one of just two SEC schools that attempt 65 percent or more of their shots from two. The Tigers make 57.2 percent of those attempts, good for sixth in the SEC and 39th amongst D-I schools. That’s not the best of news for South Carolina. The Gamecocks are one of two SEC schools with a sub-200 two-point defense nationally. They’re allowing 52.1 percent on shots inside the arc this year.

Recently, that trend has only gotten worse. In their past five games, the Gamecocks are allowing a 63.1 2PT% on defense. That’s 365th amongst a sample of 365 D-I schools. To recap, amongst all college basketball teams of the highest level, South Carolina is statistically the least efficient interior defense in the country over their past five games.

Additionally, even if the sample included D-II teams, the Gamecocks’ defense would have a worse 2PT% in their past five games than 297 of 298 D-II programs. Only the Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras Gallitos, a D-II independent that has played five games all season, has a worse 2PT% on defense recently, with a 66.1 percent clip.

Hayden Assemian: the glue holding the lineup together?

Out of the five lineups that have played eight or more minutes together on the court in the last five games for South Carolina, only one has a positive net rating. That grouping, consisting of Meechie Johnson, Kobe Knox, Mike Sharavjamts, Myles Stute, and Hayden Assemian, has a +83.0 net rating and a +12 plus-minus in nine minutes of action. It’s definitely a small sample size. But the Gamecocks are shooting 80 percent from deep and 66.7 percent from two with that lineup.

Defensively, it’s the only five-player lineup with at least eight minutes played in the past five games that can boast an above-average defensive rating. In fact, that group has a defensive rating in the 91st percentile over the past five games.

Conversely, the lineup with the most minutes played over the past five games (50 minutes) is the exact same group, but with Assemian off the court and Elijah Strong on it. With Strong in instead of Assemian, the lineup’s defensive rating falls to 117.8, in the 31st percentile. The lineup’s offensive rating also dropped when Strong was inserted instead of the freshman. With Strong instead of Assemian in, the team’s shooting mark from three falls to 28.6 percent, and inside the arc, they shoot 51.3 percent.

Of course, Strong was the key to South Carolina’s most recent victory over the Tigers. He scored a career-high 30 points and had a season-best +17 plus-minus. Perhaps Strong is LSU’s Achilles heel. But with the team’s defensive struggles reaching a nadir in recent games, an extra dose of Assemian wouldn’t be the worst thing for this Gamecocks defense.

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