Penn State-Rutgers Matchups: Who will have the edge in Piscataway?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State wraps up its 2025 regular season on Saturday when it travels to Rutgers for a 3:30 p.m. ET Big Ten matchup on BTN. The Nittany Lions are nearly a two-touchdown favorite at BetMGM ahead of kickoff. Both teams are vying for a sixth win and thus bowl eligibility.

“They know what’s at stake,” Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano said Tuesday. “I know what they want to do. As I always say, goals are a little overrated. My main appreciation of goals is that it forces people to create a plan. Other than that, the team on the other side will have the same goal we do when the game kicks off. They’d like to win and go to a bowl.

“We’d like to win and go to a bowl. It’s all going to be about execution. It’s all going to be about the preparation that we’ve put in this week and what kind of execution that leads to on Saturday.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday? We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

Penn State has made a concerted effort to feature its running backs since Terry Smith took over for James Franklin. Don’t believe it? Here’s the pass/run breakdown:

Iowa: 28/46

Ohio State: 29/31

Indiana: 31/33

Michigan State: 13/50

Nebraska: 12/39

Smith has made no secret about wanting to make sure that Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton touch the ball as much as possible. That will absolutely be the plan again on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights’ rushing defense ranks No. 127 out of No. 136 nationally. Penn State should be able to follow a similar plan to last week: Pass a bit early to open things up and then run, run, run. Rutgers is a bit better against the pass, ranking No. 75 out of 125 teams, but, that isn’t saying much, of course. This defense has struggled all season, and the Lions have the talent to make this another long day for co-defensive coordinators Robb Smith, who is a former Penn State analyst, and Zach Sparber. They have the second-fewest sacks in the country, as well, so their pass rush won’t intimidate the Nittany Lions.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Rutgers averages just 28 points per game, which ranks 68th nationally. Like Penn State, the Scarlet Knights prefer to run the ball over passing it if the game flow allows for it. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis‘ 8.1 yards per attempt ranks 33rd nationally. Two Rutgers receivers rank in the top 20 nationally in yards per game: KJ Duff is 10th with 87, and Ian Strong is 19th with 80.6. Running back Antwan Raymond, then, is 18th in yards per game with 95.64 yards.

Despite those stats, former Penn State offensive coordiantor Kirk Ciarrocca’s attack ranks just 61st overall. It does have the nation’s No. 37 passing attack. But, that’s undoubtedly due to the fact that it trails often and has to pass frequently in prevent situations.

Rutgers ranks 123 out of 135 teams with sacks allowed at 35. The Scarlet Knights may eventually move the ball. But, the Penn State defense figures to suffocate its attack much like it did against Nebraska last week.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Rutgers kicker Jai Patel is just 13 of 18 on the year.

–Former Penn State tight end Danny Dalton is part of Schiano’s staff in an analyst role.

–The Scarlet Knights do not turn the ball over much. But, they do not create many turnovers, either.

Final word on Penn State-Rutgers

It makes sense that this line moved from 9.5 to 13.5 in favor of Penn State. The Lions have edges across the board on offense, defense, and special teams. Expect Smith’s side to win its third straight game and clinch bowl eligibility.