Penn State-Clemson Predictions: Can the Lions finish with a victory?

Penn State will finish off its 2025 season in New York City this Saturday when it faces Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Looking back, it’s been a season to forget for both programs. Not only were the Nittany Lions and Tigers both coming off a College Football Playoff appearance, but they also ranked among the top five teams in the country in the preseason AP Poll. Clemson lost three of its first four games of the season, while Penn State went winless in the Big Ten until November.

Now, with a host of key players sitting out for both teams, it’s hard to predict how Saturday’s showdown in Yankee Stadium will play out. BetMGM currently has Clemson as a three-point favorite over the Nittany Lions, with an over/under of 48.5. The spread opened at Penn State -1.5 points.

So, can Penn State get a win and salvage a winning record? Our staff gives its predictions below.

Matt Herb (Season Record: 9-3)

Clemson was a 3-point favorite in the Pinstripe Bowl as of Tuesday, but what does that even mean in a game like this? Lots of key players on both sides will be missing when Penn State faces the Tigers, whether to protect their NFL futures or because of impending transfers or due to injuries. Some additional players may end up making only cameo appearances on Saturday. The sheer volume of confirmed or expected absences makes this game impossible to predict.

Our format requires a pick, though, and I guess I’ve got to go with Clemson. Reason being, Cade Klubnik has said he’s healthy and is going to play. Klubnik has experienced some ups and downs this year, but he’s a veteran quarterback who’s had nearly a month get healthy after dealing with an assortment of injuries (ankle, thumb, quadriceps), and he’ll be throwing into a depleted Penn State secondary, with Zakee Wheatley, A.J. Harris and Elliot Washington II all missing for various reasons. Even with those players in action, the Nittany Lions surrendered 338 passing yards and 533 total yards to Rutgers in their regular-season finale, so you would expect Clemson to have the upper hand when it’s on offense. Whether that’s enough to tilt the balance in the Tigers’ favor is anyone’s guess, but someone’s gotta win this thing.

Clemson: 27
Penn State: 24

Greg Pickel (Season Record: 9-3)

I think I’d rather be forced to pick which of two melting popsicles sitting in the summer vanishes first before choosing the winner of this contest. Clemson left South Carolina on Monday without roughly 30 players who are sitting out due to injury, NFL Draft declaration, or plans to enter the transfer portal. On paper, the Penn State number is closer to 10. In reality, though, it may get in the same ballpark as the Tigers when it comes to who actually either fully sits out or basically does by being on a reduced snap count.

Under center, Dabo Swinney should have Cade Klubnik back behind a patchwork offensive line. Backup Christopher Vizzina will probably get some run anyway. Ethan Grunkemeyer will start his seventh consecutive game for Penn State. He’s the single-single completion percentage leader at the start of this contest because he’s largely been able to pick and choose his spots while relying heavily on the ground game. But, without Nick Singleton and little to no of Kaytron Allen, that’ll be easier said than done at Yankee Stadium. 

All told, flip a coin, pull a piece of paper out of a hat, or make your call however you see fit. For me, it comes down to this: The unknown of Penn State’s running back situation behind the top two has been a problem all year. How it looks when forced into action will likely decide this game. That and Clemson’s backups in the front seven. Of which there seems to be an equal number of question marks.

Penn State: 20
Clemson: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season Record: 9-3)

Bowl games are difficult to predict these days, and this game may be one of the toughest of them all in 2025. Clemson has been more open than Penn State when it comes to who is opting out, and yet, despite that, the Nittany Lions have swung from 1.5-point favorites to 3-point underdogs.

I expect multiple starters along the offensive line to sit this game out. I’d also be surprised if we see Kaytron Allen. Penn State found success late in the year rushing the ball, and now the key players who made that work likely won’t be playing much, if at all.

When you add in all the change we’ve seen in Lasch in recent weeks, it’s hard for me to predict Penn State in this spot. Clemson isn’t very good, but the program remains stable after a rough season and is expected to have its starting quarterback, Cade Klubnik. Add in the fact that safety Zakee Wheatley won’t be out there for Penn State and I think that could make it tough on this secondary.

Truthfully, nothing would really surprise me Saturday, but I have to lean towards Clemson at the moment.

Clemson: 23
Penn State: 17