Penn State-Clemson Matchups: Who will have the edge in NYC?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State meets Clemson in the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl. It will be the Tigers’ first trip to New York City for the postseason contest. The Lions were last there in 2014, when they left victorious over Boston College. Kickoff is at Noon ET on Saturday. ABC is televising the game.

“We have the opportunity to play at a historic venue, Yankee Stadium,” Lions interim head coach Terry Smith said earlier this month. “I coached there once before. It’s a great venue. It’s a great opportunity for our guys. “Obviously, our year hasn’t gone the way we thought it would go from the beginning. We went through the coaching change, I took over midseason, and right now we’re on a three-game winning streak just trying to piece together, trying to figure out how to win a fourth game in a row.

“So it’s a great opportunity between two great historic programs — Clemson University and Penn State University, a lot of history between the two. For our guys, we’re super excited, and it’s just a tremendous opportunity to try and end this season on a high note.”

We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

There are two types of postseason opt outs. One is the public one. And the other, as Penn State fans frustratingly remember from the 2023 Peach Bowl, is the silent one. We can all but guarantee that some Nittany Lions will dress for warmups and be on the sideline at Yankee Stadium. How many of them will actually play, though, is anyone’s guess.

We do know that Andy Kotelnicki’s offense will absolutely be without All-America guard Vega Ioane and running back Nick Singleton. It stands to reason that their veteran teammates at both positions will probably not play a ton, if at all. That leaves a serious experience void at running back and a lot of backups preparing for bigger roles up front. Conversely, we do know that Trebor Pena plans to play his final collegiate game at one of the starting receiver spots.

Clemson, then, will be without the following starters on defense:

DT DeMonte Capehart
DT Peter Woods
DE TJ Parker
WLB Wade Woodaz
CB Aveion Terrell
Rover Khalil Barnes

With all of that star power out, the easy move would be to say it favors Penn State. But, this is an offense that rode Allen specifically during the second half of the season, and if he is limited, it’s hard to predict much success follows. That’s especially true if the offensive line is working with a bunch of new starters. But, perhaps Ethan Grunkemeyer and company, can attack one of the nation’s worst passing defenses and find great success.

It’s a coin flip. We’ll give the nod to Clemson, fully realizing that after 60 minutes of play, this could either look very justifiable or very unwise in hindsight.

EDGE: Clemson

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Penn State opened as a favorite in this game, But, upon word that Cade Klubnik would both play and start, it moved to Clemson -4.5. It has since settled at 3 points as of the time of this story’s publication.

The Tigers have had their own injury issues up front this season. Starting left guard Colin Sadler will not play against the Lions. And, top receiver Antonio Williams will be out as well. Interim defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter’s unit will be without standout Zakee Wheatley, cornerback AJ Harris (though that could be addition by subtraction, quite frankly), and defensive tackle Zane Durant, at the very least. It’s hard to put a read on the shift in coordinators from Jim Knowles to Anthony Poindexter. It’s also hard to know how much the likes of Dani Dennis-Sutton and Amare Campbell will play, though both seem interested in getting a fair amount of work, at the very least.

Neither Clemson’s offense nor Penn State’s defense was stellar before the opt outs started. The Tigers have the nation’s No. 48 total offense and the Lions the No. 33 total defense. Even with Klubnik in, it won’t be a shock to see Clemson backup quarterback Christopher Vizzina get some run, as well.

While I detest playing the coin flip game, the lack of opt-out clarity makes this a tough one to call. If the defenses shows up that stifled Michigan State and Nebraska, Penn State will be in good shape. If the version that almost lost to Rutgers does, though, it could be a long day.

We’ll give a slight edge to the Lions. But it is by no means a big one.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Penn State should have a special teams edge, based on the data. The Lions were No. 7 in the SP+ rankings in 2025. Clemson was No. 34. They were Nos. 1 and 95, respectively, in ESPN’s Football Power Index special teams efficiency rankings.

–Clemson kicker Nolan Hauser is 16 of 19 on the year. He has just one miss inside of 40 yards and also made a 50-yard boot this year.

–Williams, the Tigers receiver who is out, doubles as the team’s punt returner. So, Dabo Swinney’s group will have a new face in that starting spot, too.

Final word on Penn State-Clemson

Bowl games have become frustrating to handicap in 2025. It’s been the case for a few years, of course. But the soft opt-outs have made it more difficult than ever to break these games down. We think the line is fair and yet would still take the 3 points with Penn State because of the uncertainties.