Oklahoma’s late-season surge sets stage for SEC Tournament run

Prior to Oklahoma’s game against Vanderbilt on February 7th, they had a 1-9 record in conference play with seemingly no chance of making the NCAA Tournament. At that point, the Sooners ranked 60th in Torvik.

Ever since February 7th, when they grabbed an impressive top-15 ranked road win over Vanderbilt, the Sooners have been Torvik’s No. 15 team in the country with the No. 8 offense in the nation and an impressive 6-2 record to close the regular season.

Now there is a shot at the NCAA Tournament, although the Sooners will need to have a good week in Nashville for it to become realistic. Nonetheless, this team has completely flipped the script since February 7th and has been one of the top teams in the country.

There are a few reasons why this team has completely changed, one of which is bench production. That starts with Dayton Forsythe, who from December 6th to January 27th was not healthy. Since returning, he has been a huge boost to the Sooners.

In the last 10 games, Forsythe has averaged 8.8 points per game in 20.8 minutes per game while shooting 42.4% from the field and 37.5% from behind the arc. Not only has Forsythe been the much-needed spark plug off the bench that this team desperately needed, his emergence has also benefited the other guards.

For this team, it starts with Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown. Those two guards make a very dangerous backcourt. During this impressive eight-game stretch, Pack has averaged 16.9 points on 53% shooting from the field and 61.7% shooting from deep, while Brown is averaging 13.4 points and shooting 55.8% from the field and 46.9% from three.

The dynamic duo of Pack and Brown have helped Oklahoma become the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the SEC and one of the top offenses in the country over the last eight games. The backcourt’s firepower was on full display in their last game against Texas as Pack notched 23 points and Brown had 21.

That backcourt dominance, paired with the steadiness of Forsythe and Jadon Jones off the bench, has been a huge combination for Oklahoma. But arguably the most important piece has been their center, Mohamed Wague, who has played really well ever since Ramadan began, which has earned him the nickname Ramadan Mo.

Moser has said time and time again that Oklahoma goes as Mo goes, and that quote has proved to be true time and time again. What exactly is Ramadan Mo doing so well? He’s eliminated the bad fouls, stayed on the court more, and been a strong presence down low when it comes to scoring, rebounding, and blocking shots.

Over his last five games, he’s averaging 11.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in 25.2 minutes while shooting 67.9% from the field and 80.8% from the free throw line. That is huge for the Sooners and will continue to be key for them as they look to extend their hot streak.

Another reason for their success has been improvement on the defensive end. Oklahoma has been great offensively this season, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency, but they have ranked 123rd in defensive efficiency. Over the last three games they have been much improved, with an average 94 defensive rating compared to their 107.1 average on the season.

The path for Oklahoma

After the win at Texas, the Sooners are now squarely on the bubble. CBS Sports has them as the first team out of the field, while Joe Lunardi has kept them in the 6-10 range. Torvik currently has Oklahoma as the third team out with a 19% chance at a bid.

Here is where it gets interesting. With a 1-1 showing in the SEC Tournament, Torvik would drop Oklahoma to the fifth team out with a 14.4% chance at a bid. With a 2-1 showing, the Sooners would be the last team in with a 55% chance at a bid according to Torvik’s projections. And with a 3-1 showing they would be among the last four byes with an 84.7% chance at a bid.

It feels simple: win one and it will not be enough. Win two and you have a shot but are sweating and cannot afford bid stealers. Win three and you are in.

The path for the 11-seed Sooners starts with 14-seed South Carolina on Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. in Nashville on SEC Network. Oklahoma should absolutely be able to beat the Gamecocks, which they did not do the first time around as they had one of their worst showings of the season, losing 85-76.

Should they beat South Carolina, they would play Thursday night at 8:30 against 6-seed Texas A&M, who beat them twice during the regular season. And if they get past the Aggies, they would get 3-seed Arkansas on Friday night at 8:30 p.m.

That is the path for Oklahoma, and it begins on Wednesday night.

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