UNC-Duke Preview: Underdog Tar Heels Face No. 1 Blue Devils

No. 17 North Carolina (24-6, 12-5 ACC) vs. No. 1 Duke (28-2, 16-1 ACC)
Durham, N.C. — Cameron Indoor Stadium
Saturday, March 7 — 6:30 p.m.
ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas and Kris Budden)

Quotables 
“We’ve been in a number of different environments, and obviously Cameron Indoor Stadium is unique, but it’s not anything different… our focus is on what is real, and what is real is on the court. Everything that goes on in the stands is irrelevant.” — Hubert Davis during Thursday’s press conference

“Cam (Boozer), he’s been a complete stud for us, man, from day one. And I think it just becomes so contagious when your best player is about winning and they show up every day.” — Jon Scheyer said during his Thursday press conference

Pregame Notes

Bogavac Leads UNC to Perfect Home Record: North Carolina grinded out a 67-63 win over Clemson on Tuesday night to earn a perfect 18-0 record in the Smith Center this season — the most home wins in program history. It was Luka Bogavac’s season-high 20-point performance that propelled the Tar Heels to victory, with 17 of his points coming in the second half. Bogavac made six threes on the night, helping UNC overcome its worst shooting performance (37.9% FG) in a win this season.

The win helped North Carolina clinch the No. 4 seed in the ACC Tournament and secure a double-bye. The Tar Heels now check in at No. 24 in the NET and No. 28 in KenPom’s ratings.

Looking at Duke: The Blue Devils are 7-0 since UNC upset them in Chapel Hill, and have since improved to the No. 1 team in the country in the AP poll, NET and KenPom. 

Duke has picked up three Quad 1 wins since facing the Tar Heels — now tied with Arizona for the most Q1 wins in the nation with 14 — including a 68-63 victory over then-No. 1 Michigan in D.C. and blowout wins over No. 11 Virginia (77-51) and N.C. State (93-64). North Carolina remains the Blue Devils’ only ACC defeat this season, leading to Duke’s second-straight regular-season conference title. 

After the Blue Devils’ win over the Wolfpack on Monday night, Jon Scheyer improved to 117-24 as head coach, tying Butler’s Brad Stevens with the most wins by a head coach in the first four seasons, with a chance to break the NCAA record against UNC. 

Blue Devils Have Clamped-Down Defense and Ramped-Up Offense: In the last seven games since Duke fell to North Carolina in its second defeat of the season, the Blue Devils have been outstanding. Duke boasts the No. 4-rated offense and No. 1-rated defense in the metrics.

Since facing UNC, the Blue Devils have held opponents to 36.7 percent shooting from the field, including 26.1 percent from 3-point range. Against N.C. State in Raleigh — a team that shot the Tar Heels out of the arena with nine made threes on 45 percent shooting — Duke held the Wolfpack to 24 percent (7-for-29) from deep. 

Given the way the Blue Devils have clamped down on defense, the 60 percent shooting North Carolina had in the second half to propel its comeback can’t be counted on this time around. And with Caleb Wilson officially out for the season, stellar outings from Zayden High and Jarin Stevenson will have to replace the first-half scoring charge Wilson was able to muster against Cameron Boozer. 

On the offensive end, Duke has also gotten more efficient. The Blue Devils have made over 10 threes in their last seven games, a clear uptick from the 8.7 they averaged prior to playing UNC. Shooting over 40 percent from three over its recent stretch, Duke has seen less of a reliance on Boozer’s scoring and more support from players like Isaiah Evans, Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster of late. 

In fact, Boozer has not taken more than 10 shots from the floor since Valentine’s Day, averaging 21.6 points over the last five games on 9.4 attempts. North Carolina did a good job making the Blue Devils one-dimensional by relying on Boozer for 15 straight points in the second half and going to him on back-to-back looks inside the final 90 seconds. 

If the Tar Heels can make Duke one-dimensional in a similar way — with Henri Veesaar rising to the defensive challenge in the post — they seem to have a better chance at limiting the Blue Devil offense. 

Series History: Seth Trimble’s corner three with 0.4 seconds remaining on the clock completed an 11-point second-half comeback for North Carolina and sank Duke in all-time fashion. It also improved UNC’s record to 146-120 over the Blue Devils. 

The Tar Heels are now 5-6 against Duke under Hubert Davis, with a 2-2 record at Cameron Indoor Stadium. UNC’s last win in Durham came in 2024 when Cormac Ryan scored 31 points with six threes to secure North Carolina’s outright ACC regular season title. 

Saturday’s meeting will be the 89th time the two programs have met as ranked opponents, with the Tar Heels in search of their first win over a No. 1-ranked Duke team since 2019, when Luke Maye’s 30-point, 15-rebound performance defeated the Blue Devils, 88-72 at Cameron Indoor. 

Projected UNC Starters: 
3 Derek Dixon (Fr., 6-5, 200) — 5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.6 apg
7 Seth Trimble (Sr., 6-3, 200) — 14.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.4 apg
13 Henri Veesaar (Jr., 7-0, 225) — 16.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 41.2% 3pt
15 Jarin Stevenson (Jr., 6-10, 215) — 7.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1 apg
44 Luka Bogavac (Jr., 6-6, 215) — 10.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg

Top Tar Heel Reserves: 
0 Kyan Evans (Jr., 6-2, 175) — 4.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 2.7 apg
1 Zayden High (So., 6-10, 230) — 3.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg
4 Jaydon Young (Jr., 6-4, 200) — 1.9 ppg, .6 rpg
11 Jonathan Powell (So., 6-6, 190) — 5.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 38.9% 3pt

Projected Duke Starters:
1 Caleb Foster (Jr., 6-5, 205) — 8.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 40.4% 3pt
3 Isaiah Evans (So., 6-6, 180) — 14.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 33.5% 3pt
7 Dame Sarr (Fr., 6-8, 190) — 6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1 apg
12 Cameron Boozer (Fr., 6-9, 250) — 22.6 ppg, 10 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.6 spg, 40% 3pt
21 Patrick Ngongba II (So., 6-11, 250) — 10.7 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 bpg

Top Blue Devils Reserves:
2 Cayden Boozer (Fr., 6-4, 205) — 6.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.8 apg
6 Maliq Brown (Sr., 6-9, 225) — 4.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 60% FG
8 Darren Harris (So., 6-5, 195) — 4.0 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 0.5 apg
14 Nikolas Khamenia (Jr., 6-8, 215) — 5.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 apg

UNC Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats

Duke Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats