Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar Draft Projections Foreshadow Decisions Facing Tar Heel Stars

While North Carolina is focused right now on the ACC and NCAA Tournament games on its docket, scouts and draft reporters are focused on the NBA Draft developments that will follow thereafter. ESPN released its latest mock draft on Wednesday, which aptly foreshadows the decisions facing Tar Heels Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar.

For Wilson, there shouldn’t be any suspense. He’s projected at No. 4 overall, with ESPN’s Jeremy Woo adding: “(Wilson) has done enough to sit safely among the top picks even without taking the court again … NBA teams have penciled him in as a top-four selection.”

Following a record-breaking freshman season in Chapel Hill, Wilson is on track to snap a 20-year drought of Tar Heels selected in the top five of the NBA Draft. The last came in 2005, when Marvin Williams went No. 2 overall followed by Raymond Felton at No. 5.

There’s every reason and expectation that Wilson will not return to Chapel Hill next season — last year’s No. 4 pick, Duke guard Kon Knueppel, signed a four-year contract worth nearly $46 million with the Charlotte Hornets — though UNC’s leading scorer still played up the possibility when he commented “run it back?” on a social media post several days ago.

Wilson’s frontcourt running mate, Veesaar, has more to think about.

Veesaar is listed at No. 36 — the sixth pick in the second round — in ESPN’s updated mock draft, putting him on the first round bubble. He’s been in that range throughout the season, getting as high as the late 20s earlier in the season per ESPN. Other outlets view it similarly, as The Athletic pegs him at No. 32 in its latest projection.

The financial implications of Veesaar’s draft range are highly consequential. A first round pick gets a guaranteed contract set by the NBA’s predetermined rookie salary scale. Last year the No. 30 pick was guaranteed the first two years ($5.2m) of a $14 million four-year contract.

Second round draft picks can also receive standard, guaranteed contracts, but that’s mostly reserved for those selected higher up in the second round. Last year, 11 second-rounders got such deals. The No. 36 pick a year ago, Arkansas’ Adou Thiero, got the first two years (about $3.4m) of a $5.95m contract guaranteed from the LA Lakers.

“I’ll make the decision after the season ends. I haven’t thought about it yet,” Veesaar told Delfi Sport, an Estonian media outlet (translated), earlier this month. “I’ll see where I stand at the end of the season and what my performances have been like. Right now I’m 100 percent focused on finishing the season in the best possible way.

“I’ll listen to the feedback I get from NBA teams. Hopefully I’ll stay healthy until the end of the season. Then I’ll see where I might land in the draft — whether it’s in the first or second round and with which team.”

The option to return to Chapel Hill will undoubtedly be there for Veesaar, with a seven-figure NIL deal incentivizing him to stay in school. A strong finish to the season for Veesaar in this week’s ACC Tournament, followed by next week’s NCAA Tournament, could play a role in the Estonian’s decision. That decision will be at the centerpiece — no pun intended — of Hubert Davis’ offseason roster rebuild. 

“March Madness could have quite a big impact on my decision,” Veesaar added. “There are a lot of scouts at every game, and in those matches they see how well players can perform under pressure. If the team goes further, you obviously rise in NBA mock drafts. And if the team loses right away, you might drop a bit.”