No. 10 Michigan State vs No. 5 Illinois: Three Things To Know

EAST LANSING, Mich. – Michigan State faces a big challenge when No. 5-ranked Illinois comes to the Breslin Center for a Top 10 showdown at 8 p.m. on Saturday (FOX). 

Illinois (20-3, 11-1) has won 12 straight games and owns the nation’s top-ranked offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Michigan State (19-4, 9-3) is coming off two straight losses, including a disappointing setback at Minnesota on Wednesday night. 

Between two straight defeats, the Jeremy Fears controversy, and Friday’s announcement that guard Divine Ugochukwu is out for the season with a foot injury, it’s been a tough week for the Spartans. But they can turn things around in a hurry with a win over the Illini. As of Friday afternoon, MSU was a 1.5-point betting favorite.

Here are three things to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

1. ILLINOIS IS THE REAL DEAL

Last season’s Illini squad was understandably mocked by opposing fanbases for their “high ceiling” that commentators seemed to frequently discuss. That team had two first round picks but was wildly inconsistent and predictably lost in the Round of 32. 

This team is different. Clearly.

Illinois is perhaps the hottest team in America, as it enters the Breslin Center with 12 straight victories, including the last two weekends at Purdue and at Nebraska. The Illini are 6-0 in Big Ten road games, and boast non-conference wins over Texas Tech (home) and Tennessee (in Nashville). 

So what has changed?

A blend of key returners (Kylan Boswell, Tomislav Ivisic, Jake Davis, and Ben Humrichous) have meshed excellently with two terrific freshmen (Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic) and two integral transfers (Andrej Stojakovic, from Cal; and Zvonimir Ivisic, from Arkansas). Boswell is out with a hand injury, but the Illini haven’t lost stride. In fact, the Illini have gained momentum in the past two weeks.

The Illini’s five-out offense has been a nightmare for opposing teams to defend. There are always five shooting threats on the court. They have uncommon size and excel at cutting, and making the extra pass. 

It’s simply a high-IQ squad that understands its system, doesn’t mind running down the shot clock for a good shot, and gets a lot of open looks. The balanced team boasts five players averaging in double figures.

Coach Brad Underwood wants his team to take either 3-pointers or layups. Illinois is shooting 36 percent from deep on the season, averaging 31 attempts per game. They are also an outstanding offensive rebounding team, collecting 39.5 percent of their misses, which is fourth nationally. MSU is sixth at 38 percent.

In an 84-44 bludgeoning of Northwestern on Wednesday, Illinois made 17 3-pointers and had a 50-23 rebounding edge. 

2. KEATON WAGLER HAS ELEVATED ILLINOIS 

Much has been made about how Wagler, a freshman from suburban Kansas City, was ranked in the 200s coming out of high school with only two high major offers, Illinois and Minnesota. During preseason practices, Underwood raved about the 6-foot-6 guard and compared him to last year’s one-and-done freshmen, Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley. That sounded ambitious. In hindsight, it was not. He is now projected to be a Lottery pick.

Contrary to popular belief, Wagler was moved to point guard following the Illini’s ugly loss on Nov. 28 to UConn, not because of Boswell’s hand injury. But he has taken his game to new heights recently, leading Illinois to a 5-0 record without Boswell, its senior leader and best on-ball defender. Wagler, who recently turned 19, is impressively poised with ball and rarely makes bad decisions.

On the season, he is playing 32 minutes per game while averaging 17.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. His high mark was a breath-taking, 46-point performance in a victory at Purdue on Jan. 24. His shooting line is .48/.44/.81. And despite having the ball in his hands for much of every game, Wagler has only committed 35 turnovers in 23 games.

“Wagler is, I think, the freshman of the year,” MSU coach Tom Izzo said on Friday. “Honestly, I think he could be the player of the year. I think he’s that good. I told Brad (Underwood) I think it’s because he didn’t get ruined by the media, the fans, or by coaches because he was not a 5-star, McDonald’s this and that.”

Teams have thrown a multitude of coverages at Wagler, some of which have worked for a half, but that’s about it. There’s been switching, no switches, trying to blitz the ball out of his hands, and more. Watching 40 minutes of Jeremy Fears hounding Wagler with his pesky defensive skill and physicality will be entertaining. How Fears contains Wagler will go a long way toward who wins on Saturday.

3. MICHIGAN STATE’S PATH TO VICTORY: QUICKS & BOARDS

Michigan State’s path to victory is keeping Illinois off the offensive glass and exploiting its short bench. The Spartans are one of the few teams equipped to rebound toe-to-toe with Illinois. The Illini are the tallest team in America, but MSU has done a great job on the glass this year as well. MSU ranks second nationally in rebounding rate, while Illinois is fifth.

Jaxon Kohler (9.1 rebounds per game), Carson Cooper (7.2), Coen Carr (5.3), and Cam Ward (4.4) will have to be at their best for the Spartans. Illinois is huge, with the Ivisic twins both over 7-feet, Mirkovic and Humrichous at 6-9, and Stojakovic at 6-7. However, without Boswell they basically have a seven-man rotation, so foul trouble is a concern for Underwood’s team.

“This is the best-sized team I’ve seen come in here in years and years and years, maybe ever,” Izzo said.

Illinois is not a lockdown defensive squad, so there will be opportunities for MSU to get open looks. The Illini rank No. 19 defensively in KenPom, but have expectedly not been as stout without Boswell, who is their Fears-like, point of attack defender. 

In previous years, Underwood was all about running shooters off the 3-point line, but has now changed his philosophy. With a massive front line, Illinois has decided to wall up at the rim, and if an opponent gets hot from 3, the Illini will have to live with it.

Illinois is susceptible to strong pick and roll play, like when Purdue star Braden Smith diced them up for 27 points and 12 assists. If the Illini have a weakness, it’s being a bit slow-footed defensively. Needless to say, that’s where Fears comes into play.

Without Boswell, who is expected back in a few weeks, the 6-foot-7 Stojakovic has been tasked with guarding the opponent’s top wing threat. Last week against Nebraska, Huskers sniper Pryce Sandfort had four triples in the first half as Illinois struggled to contain him for the second time this season. But in the second frame, the athletic Stojakovic hounded Sandfort around endless screens and cuts, limiting him to just 2 points in the second half of Illinois’ 78-69 victory.

If MSU can hang with Illinois on the glass, and get one or two players in foul trouble, that could be the right recipe for Izzo’s team to capture what would be a huge Q1 victory at home.