West Region: Can Arizona End Its Lengthy Final Four Drought?

Even though Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, Ball Knowers will tell you that college basketball’s best team is the top-seed in the West Region. Fresh off a Big 12 Tournament Title, Arizona is attempting to become the first team from the Pacific Time Zone to win a National Championship since Lute Olson’s Wildcats beat Kentucky’s Wildcats in overtime in 1997. Arizona returned to the Championship Game in 2001, but they have not been to the Final Four since. Here’s who has been over the last 25 years:

• Oklahoma State
• Loyola Chicago
• Florida Atlantic
• San Diego State
• Wichita State
• Georgetown
• Butler
• Miami (FL)
• South Carolina

All the pressure is on Arizona to get to Indy. A haunting foe may stand in the Wildcats’ way. Wisconsin beat Arizona in the Elite Eight in 2014 and 2015. The two could see each other again in the Sweet 16.

The Bracket

West Region Schedule

Portland
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 High Point
Thursday – March 19, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS (Brad Nessler, Wally Szczerbiak, Jared Greenberg)
4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii
Thursday – March 19, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS (Brad Nessler, Wally Szczerbiak, Jared Greenberg)
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas/NC State
Thursday – March 19, 7:25 p.m. ET, TBS (Brad Nessler, Wally Szczerbiak, Jared Greenberg)
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Kennesaw State
Thursday – March 19, 10 p.m. ET, TBS (Brad Nessler, Wally Szczerbiak, Jared Greenberg)

San Diego
1 Arizona vs. 16 Long Island
Friday – March 20, 1:35 p.m. ET, TNT (Kevin Harlan, Robbie Hummel, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
8 Villanova vs. 9 Utah State
Friday – March 20, 4:10 p.m. ET, TNT (Kevin Harlan, Robbie Hummel, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)

St. Louis
7 Miami vs. 10 Missouri
Friday – March 20, 10:10 p.m. ET, truTV (Spero Dedes, Jim Spanarkel, Jon Rothstein)
2 Purdue vs. 15 Queens
Friday – March 20, 7:35 p.m. ET, truTV (Spero Dedes, Jim Spanarkel, Jon Rothstein)

Efficiency Rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency. The most amusing epiphany from this exercise is that No. 15 seed Queens has a Top-80 offense but ranks in the 300s in defense.

Team	Overall	Offense	Defense
Arizona	2	5	3
Purdue	8	1	28
Gonzaga	10	29	9
Arkansas	15	6	48
Wisconsin	22	11	51
BYU	23	10	57
Miami	31	33	38
Utah State	30	28	45
Villanova	33	41	35
NC State	34	20	86
Texas	37	13	112
Missouri	52	50	78
High Point	92	66	161
Hawaii	108	211	43
Kennesaw State	163	143	194
Queens	181	77	322
LIU	216	239	186

West Region Shot Chart

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Top Storylines

Homecourt Advantage for a No. 10 Seed: It’s not unusual for a highly-seeded team to receive some geographic benefits from the Selection Committee. It is bizarre to see a No. 10 seed receive such a gift. Missouri can reach the Sweet 16 with two wins in St. Louis. The Tigers are underdogs against Miami, and almost certainly would be against Purdue, but can the home-state crowd give them enough of an advantage to reach the second weekend for the first time since 2009?

Top Scorers in the Round of 32: Darius Acuff has played like the best guard in college basketball, with many prognosticators claiming that he is the best to ever play for John Calipari. The Round of 32 could give us a showdown in the West Region. Wisconsin’s Nick Boyd is the third-ranked scorer in the Big Ten, averaging better than 20 points per game, and he can get hot in a hurry. In the Big Ten Quarterfinal, he went for 38 in an overtime win over Illinois. These two could provide fireworks in the West Region.

Calipari back to the Final Four? It’s been 11 years since John Calipari was coaching basketball in the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There’s been one constant throughout his career: He’s gone to a Final Four at every place he’s coached. Can he make it 4-4 with this Arkansas team?

Can Texas Tech survive its injuries? The Red Raiders received the worst news possible when they learned that JT Toppin tore his ACL in mid-February. They won their next three games without Toppin, including a victory at Iowa State, one of the most difficult places to play in college basketball. The next time they faced the Cyclones in the Big 12 Tournament, point guard Christian Anderson slipped on the glass floor, leaving his status up in the air for the NCAA Tournament.

How far can AJ Dybansta carry BYU? Like Texas Tech, BYU lost Richie Saunders to a torn ACL in February. Without the Cougs’ top wing, Dybansta has carried a heavy workload, but he’s done it admirably. The future lottery pick has scored 20+ points in 13 straight games. He went for 35+ in three of those games, including a 40-point night to open the Big 12 Tournament. They may need another one of those performances to extend their season for another week.

Which Purdue will show up in the West Region? The Boilers were the preseason No. 1 team with an experienced nucleus of Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Braden Smith, who only needs two assists to surpass Bobby Hurley as the NCAA’s all-time assist leader. Despite all of that experience, they lost five games at Mackey Arena, including a loss on Senior Day. A week later, they rattled off four straight wins as the No. 7 seed to win the Big Ten Tournament. That core should have created a high-floor team, but that has not been the case. That volatility could make them a great team to fade, or one that is just getting hot at the right time, ready to reach their Final Four potential.

Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 Streak. This Gonzaga team doesn’t feel close to the same caliber of team that Mark Few has brought to the NCAA Tournament over the last decade. Even so, they’re 30-3, with one of those losses coming at the hands of Michigan. They have a Top 10 defense and a Top 30 offense. Maybe flying under the radar is just what they need to go on a big run? Even though most folks don’t love this Gonzaga team, they’ve been to nine straight Sweet 16s, and a tenth certainly feels on the table in the West Region.

West Region Odds

Team	Odds
Arizona	-120
Purdue	+360
Gonzaga	+500
Arkansas	+1100
Wisconsin	+1500
Miami	+5000
BYU	+6000
Villanova	+7500
Utah State	+9000
NC State	+12000
Texas	+13000
Missouri	+13000
High Point	+40000
Hawaii	+50000
Kennesaw State	+60000
Queens	+60000
LIU	+60000