SEC Tournament Projection: Wednesday is now on the table for Kentucky

Wednesday night of the SEC Tournament has been a punchline of sorts for Big Blue Nation. Empty seats aren’t hard to find at Bridgestone Arena as the worst teams in the league fight for the right to keep their season alive for one more day. After a third straight loss, Kentucky is in danger of becoming a part of that joke.

Florida is the clear team at the top of the table. A second group has emerged just behind the Gators, jockeying for the final three spaces of the double-bye on Friday. Kentucky is in the middle of a crowd that’s trying to avoid a Wednesday start at the SEC Tournament, and right now, they’re on the wrong side of the tiebreakers.

Current SEC Standings

Vanderbilt’s loss to Tennessee opened the door for Kentucky to climb the standings. Instead, another team has been added to the clump in the middle of the second pack of SEC teams.

1. Florida (12-2)
2. Tennessee (10-4)
3. Arkansas (10-4)
4. Alabama (10-4)
5. Texas A&M (9-5)
6. Vanderbilt (8-6)
7. Kentucky (8-6)
8. Texas (8-6)
9. Missouri (8-6)
10. Georgia (7-7)
11. Auburn (6-8)
12. Mississippi State (5-9)
13. Oklahoma (3-11)
14. Ole Miss (3-11)
15. South Carolina (3-11)
16. LSU (2-12)

As Adam Luckett has illustrated in the past, the tiebreaker scenarios are difficult to discern, especially when there are still four games left on the table. Instead of spending too much time hand-wringing over where they are now, let’s take a closer look at what they could look like if the power rankings bear out.

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KenPom Final Projections

The KenPom projections project a four-way tie in the middle of the pack, with the odd man out playing on Wednesday in the SEC Tournament. Kentucky is currently the odd man out at the No. 9 seed.

Why? When three or more teams are tied, the league uses each team’s record against the tied teams to determine the order. Kentucky is 1-2 against Vanderbilt, Texas, and Missouri. The Tigers get the top spot of the four because of their wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and their victory over Florida gives them the ultimate trump card.

1. Florida (15-3)
2. Tennessee (13-5)
3. Alabama (13-5)
4. Arkansas (12-6)
5. Texas A&M (11-7)
6. Missouri (10-8)
7. Texas (10-8)
8. Vanderbilt (10-8)
9. Kentucky (10-8)
10. Georgia (9-9)
11. Auburn 8-10)
12. Mississippi State (6-12)
13. Oklahoma (5-13)
14. Ole Miss (5-13)
15. LSU (4-14)
16. South Carolina (4-14)

Obviously, the die has not been cast. Plenty can change over the final four games of the regular season. The Wildcats are only favored in one of them, Tuesday night’s road trip to South Carolina. It’s imperative that Kentucky takes care of business and is buttoned up when they go toe-to-toe with Vanderbilt and Texas A&M to avoid a Wednesday start in the SEC Tournament.