Preakness Stakes 151: Odds, Analysis, and a Prediction

The second leg of the Triple Crown has arrived. Unfortunately, for the third time in five years, Triple Crown dreams are dead on arrival in Maryland. Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo has opted out of this year’s edition of the Preakness Stakes. Don’t let that deter you from what could be a spectacular race.

Like the last two Belmont Stakes, this year’s Preakness Stakes is on the move, thanks to construction at its home track. While Pimlico undergoes massive renovations, Laurel Park is stepping in to host the 1 3/16 miles race. Attendance is capped at just 4,800 in the small venue, but there’s still a $2 million purse, and it’s attracting a few noteworthy names.

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The Favorite

It feels like deja vu all over again with Chad Brown. In 2017, Cloud Computing hit the board in the Wood Memorial, but did not secure a win in the Kentucky Derby prep race. Brown pointed the horse toward the second leg of the Triple Crown and won the Preakness Stakes.

Five years later in 2022, Early Voting finished second in the Wood Memorial, skipped the Derby, then won the Preakness Stakes. Seeing a pattern?

Iron Honor has only three career starts. After breaking its maiden, the colt pulled away to win the Gotham Stakes. He did not have a stretch-run in him at the Wood Memorial. After a nearly two-month layoff, there’s reason to believe Chad Brown will have Iron Honor ready to roll on Saturday night.

There’s one other horse to keep an eye on that followed a similar path. Chip Honcho finished ahead of Golden Tempo in the Risen Star Stakes, coming in second to Paladin, who was considered the Kentucky Derby favorite before suffering an injury. He went this distance in the Louisiana Derby, but Steve Asmussen held him out of the Kentucky Derby after a fifth-place finish at the Fair Grounds.

The Derby Horses

Ocelli was an alternate who surprisingly hit the board on the first Saturday in May. However, this horse has not won a race in seven starts. A horse has not broken its maiden in the Preakness Stakes since 1888.

Incredibolt was a popular price horse at the Kentucky Derby, but could not find that final gear to finish strong down the stretch at Churchill Downs, finishing sixth. Without a strong field, the horse’s connections decided at the 11th hour to enter the horse into the Preakness Stakes.

Robusta was the longest shot in the Kentucky Derby. The colt has only hit the board once since breaking its maiden in January.

Great White is an enormous gray horse that elicits a reaction from fans whenever they see him for the first time. Unfortunately, they saw him throw his rider and fall before entering the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby. He was unscathed but scratched from the race. He’ll get a chance for Triple Crown redemption on Saturday.

The Hometown Hero

Taj Mahal began his racing career in February. All three of his races are at Laurel Park. In each race, he stepped up in competition and won. His last victory was by an impressive eight lengths. He’s making an even bigger step up on Saturday, albeit from the No. 1 post position.

The Preakness Stakes Field

Laurel Park Undercard Thoughts

Pick 5 players are in for a real treat. Laurel Park only has a 12% takeout on the bet, and the Pick 5 that ends with the Preakness features an astonishing four turf races. That means there are plenty of opportunities to fish for price horses.

Race 9 — A couple of horses don’t look great on paper thanks to the rough setting at Keeneland’s Transylvania Stakes. 4 Attfield and 5 Proton are better than they may appear. You cannot toss Graham Motion’s other turf horse, 6 Turf Star.

Race 10 — 3 Cruise the Nile has won four straight races, but is taking a step up in competition. 6 Dresden Row has Flavien Prat aboard, and backed up a Grade III win with a victory at Keeneland to open the season.

Race 11 — 7 Child on the Moon will be the betting favorite with Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz connections, but don’t sleep on 2 Ribaltagaia. Graham Motion’s horse hit the board in his 2026 debut at Laurel Park. 3 Accent’s speed figures have improved in every race of his career.

Race 12 — Mike Maker has become one of the most reliable turf trainers, and 1 Run Curtis Run ran second in his 2026 debut on Opening Day at Churchill Downs.

Preakness Handicapping Guide

Pete Fornatale from In the Money Media returned to the KSR YouTube Channel to share his thoughts on how the second leg of the Triple Crown will unfold.

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Preakness Stakes Prediction

Of the 14 horses in the Preakness Stakes, 11 want to be near the front of the pack in the early stages of the race. It could create a pace too hot for some to handle. Ocelli closed hard in the Kentucky Derby, thanks in part to a great trip, but it’s hard for me to envision this horse replicating that kind of performance off of two weeks’ rest. Taj Mahal looks great in the program, but that No. 1 post position in a fast race might be asking too much of this horse.

Iron Honor will be well-positioned to stalk the frontrunners from the outside. Based on Chad Brown’s history, I’m willing to make a win wager on the favorite, edging by Taj Mahal with Bull by the Horns and Incredibolt charging for the top three spots.

Win Bet: Iron Honor
Trifecta Box: Iron Honor, Taj Mahal, Incredibolt, Bull by the Horns
(UPDATE: We’re likely replacing Taj Mahal with Napoleon Solo. Will be a game-time decision as we draw closer to post time.)