NCAA Tournament Resume Rundown: The last home series looms large for Kentucky

The final week of the college baseball regular season has arrived. Kentucky has just one home series remaining before the SEC Tournament next week. The Bat Cats might just need one win to officially move off the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Where does Nick Mingione‘s club sit heading into that final home weekend? Kentucky is still hovering around that bubble but things look much better with just one win this weekend.

Baseball America dropped their latest bracket projection on Tuesday. Kentucky was a No. 3 seed in a region out in Los Angeles with No. 1 overall seed UCLA. No. 2 seed Miami (No. 32 overall) and No. 4 seed San Diego State were also in that region. The Bat Cats were officially moved off the bubble and listed in the “should be in” category.

The Wildcats called what they hope is the selection committee’s bluff, canceling a late-season midweek against Northern Kentucky in a move widely viewed through an RPI lens as they prepared for a home series against Arkansas. At 12 SEC wins and No. 30 in RPI, Kentucky should be able to avoid the bubble entirely if it can win at least one game against the Razorbacks before heading to Hoover for the SEC Tournament. The “should be in” designation applies only because 12 conference wins remains below the modern SEC threshold for comfort, but we strongly believe the Wildcats will get to 13.

Baseball America

D1 Baseball is not as high on the Bat Cats currently. Kentucky is still listed in the field but is firmly on the bubble listed in the “last four in” category along with TCU (No. 42 in RPI), East Carolina (No. 53 in RPI), and Texas State (No. 44 in RPI). Purdue (No. 48 in RPI), Louisiana (No. 49 in RPI), Mercer (No. 34 in RPI), and Louisiana Tech (No. 62 in RPI) are listed are just outside the field. Mercer just picked up a huge Quad 1 road win against Georgia Tech on Tuesday.

Kentucky is off the bubble but has some business to take care of this week.

Kentucky’s Team Sheet

Kentucky (30-18, 12-15) sits at No. 33 in RPI. That’s one spot ahead of this time last week.

The Bat Cats are 7-8 in Quad 1 after a 1-2 weekend in Gainesville. That’s more Quad 1 victories than any other bubble team. Add that with a top-20 non-conference RPI and that should travel on Selection Monday. Where UK could get in trouble is with the other three quadrants.

LSU is on the fringe of Quad 1/Quad 2. The Tigers sit at No. 57 and the cut-off line is No. 60. South Carolina is on the fringe of Quad 2/Quad 3. The Gamecocks sit at No. 119 and the cut-off line is No. 120. Losing either to the other quadrant makes the resume look different.

The Missouri home loss is still a blemish that pops on paper. Kentucky would be in great at-large bid shape without that. The 6-6 mark against top-15 RPI teams will matter and should ultimately get Kentucky into this field as long as they can record one win against Arkansas this weekend. The Hogs sit at No. 27 in RPI. That is on the Quad 1/Quad 2 edge.

The 13-win mark in the SEC has historically been enough to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. Kentucky’s other metrics should put them in a good spot in the selection process if they can get a win this weekend. However, the resume is fluid. Things can change. The best thing that UK can do is win two games between the Arkansas series and the SEC Tournament. That would all but guarantee a spot in the field of 64.