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LIVE BLOG: Tracking Kentucky's SEC Tournament Scenarios

On3 imageby: KSR03/08/26

By the end of the day, the SEC Tournament bracket will be set; we could know Kentucky’s path even sooner.

Right now, there are several scenarios at play. Kentucky is tied for fifth with Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M at 10-7. Due to tiebreakers, the Cats are at the bottom of that quartet, which would make them the No. 8 seed if the tournament started today.

With eight games taking place today, a lot could happen. Kentucky could wind up anywhere from a No. 4 seed, which would mean playing on Friday, to a No. 10 seed, which would mean playing on Wednesday. If the Cats beat Florida, they will be a No. 4, 5, 6, or 7 seed; if they lose, they’ll be No. 8, 9, or 10 seed.

We’ll be keeping track of it all as the day unfolds, whittling the long list of scenarios down as the games go final.


Time (ET)
MatchupTVSpreadResult
12:00 PMArkansas at MissouriESPNMissouri -2.588-84 W ARK
1:00 PMSouth Carolina at Ole MissSEC NetworkOle Miss -6.564-61 W USC
2:00 PMVanderbilt at TennesseeESPNTennessee -4.586-82 W VU
3:30 PMGeorgia at Mississippi StateSEC NetworkGeorgia -5.5102-96 W UGA
4:00 PMFlorida at KentuckyESPNFlorida -6.5TBD
6:00 PMTexas A&M at LSUSEC NetworkTexas A&M -3.5TBD
8:30 PMAuburn at AlabamaESPNAlabama -8.5TBD
8:30 PMOklahoma at TexasSEC NetworkTexas -7.5TBD

It all comes down to Oklahoma vs. Texas

03/07/2026 06:03:30 PM

Kentucky’s loss to Florida means the Cats will be playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament. When depends on one game left to play, Oklahoma vs. Texas, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.

If Oklahoma beats Texas, Kentucky will be the No. 9 seed, playing the No. 16 seed at 12:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the first game. If the Longhorns beat the Sooners, the Cats will be the No. 10 seed, playing the No. 15 seed at 7 p.m. ET. Right now, LSU is trending as the No. 16 seed, while Ole Miss is trending as the No. 15 seed.

Georgia beats Mississippi State

03/07/2026 04:45:53 PM

It’s looking more and more like Kentucky will lose to Florida. Another result just went final, which brings another set of possibilities into play. Georgia beat Mississippi State, bringing the Bulldogs to 10-8. That’s where Missouri stands after the loss to Arkansas and where Kentucky will be if it loses to Florida. Texas A&M and Texas could also wind up on the 10-8 line depending on their games tonight.

Assuming Florida beats Kentucky, the Cats will be the No. 9 or No. 10 seed. That will be decided by the Oklahoma vs. Texas game, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET. If Oklahoma beats Texas, Kentucky will be the No. 9 seed. If the Longhorns beat the Sooners, the Cats will be the No. 10 seed.

Kentucky will be the No. 4, 8, 9, or 10 seed

03/07/2026 04:19:00 PM

Vanderbilt outlasted Tennessee 86-82, which keeps Kentucky’s double bye dream alive. All the Cats have to do to get the No. 4 seed is beat Florida. That’s not going great so far, the Cats trailing 11-3 at the 14:42 mark.

Beat Florida, you’re the No. 4 seed. Lose, and you’re the No. 8, No. 9, or No. 10 seed. (We missed that extra No. 10 seed scenario at first)

Arkansas survives OT in Columbia to keep double-bye dreams alive for Kentucky

03/07/2026 01:36:43 PM

Step one is complete for the Kentucky Wildcats and their pursuit of a double-bye in Nashville. They could not afford an Arkansas loss at Missouri, and, thanks to Coach Cal, the Razorbacks held on in Columbia with an 88-84 overtime finish.

Meleek Thomas led the Hogs with 28 points, followed by Trevon Brazile with 19 and Malique Ewin with 17. Mark Mitchell went for 32 points in the losing effort.

For UK to earn the No. 4 seed, it now has to beat Florida this afternoon, obviously, plus a win for Vanderbilt over Tennessee in Knoxville. As things stand currently, the Commodores lead by double figures as the first half inches to a close at the Food City Center. That is excellent news for the blue and white — we need Mark Byington’s squad to hold on.

The Arkansas win knocks out a No. 7 seed for the Wildcats entirely and one of two options for a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed. Take a look at the remaining scenarios:

We’ve got OVERTIME in CoMo

03/07/2026 01:13:10 PM

Kentucky’s double-bye fate will come down to overtime between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Missouri Tigers — tied up at 74-74 at the end of regulation in Columbia.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt leads Tennessee 11-2 early in the first half in Knoxville. The Wildcats need the Commodores in that one, too.

It’s never easy, is it?

Kentucky’s seeding scenarios

03/07/2026 07:27:42 AM

Here are all of the scenarios that could play out today, courtesy of Adam Luckett. The most important games for Kentucky to get the double bye or No. 5 seed happen first: Arkansas vs. Missouri (12 p.m. ET) and Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee (2 p.m. ET).

No. 4 seed

— Beat Florida + Vanderbilt beats Tennessee + Arkansas beats Missouri: UK wins tiebreaker because of three wins over Tennessee and Vandy. Texas A&M vs. LSU result does not matter.

No. 5 seed

— Beat Florida + Vanderbilt beats Tennessee + Missouri beats Arkansas: Mizzou wins No. 4 seed due to pool record (4-0). UK wins tiebreaker over Vandy due to best win (Florida). Texas A&M vs. LSU result does not matter.

OR

— Beat Florida + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt + Arkansas beats Missouri + LSU beats Texas A&M. UK is the only 11-7 team on the No. 5 seed line.

No. 6 seed

— Beat Florida + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt + Texas A&M beats LSU + Arkansas beats Missouri: A&M and UK are in two-way tie at 11-7. Aggies win No. 5 seed tiebreaker due to head-to-head win.

OR

— Beat Florida + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt + LSU beats Texas A&M + Missouri beats Arkansas: UK is tied at 11-7 with Mizzou. Tigers win No. 5 seed tiebreaker due to head-to-head win.

No. 7 seed

— Beat Florida + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt + Missouri beats Arkansas + Texas A&M beats LSU: Mizzou, A&M, and UK are tied at 11-7. The Wildcats finish third in that three-way tiebreaker due to an 0-2 pool record.

No. 8 seed

— Lose to Florida + Mississippi State beats Georgia + Oklahoma beats Texas: Texas and Georgia would both be below Kentucky at 9-9. UK would finish last in 10-8 tiebreaker involving remaining teams.

No. 9 seed

— Lose to Florida + Auburn beats Alabama + Texas A&M beats LSU + Arkansas beats Missouri + Georgia beats Mississippi State + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt + Texas beats Oklahoma: This is a five-team tie at 10-8. UK and Vandy are tied with worst pool record (2-3). UK owns tiebreaker for best win (Arkansas) since the Hogs would finish above Alabama in this scenario.

OR

— Lose to Florida + Oklahoma beats Texas: A Texas loss drops them to 9-9 and out of the 10-8 tiebreaker. Kentucky would finish behind every other 10-8 team due to pool record.

OR

— Lose to Florida + Mississippi State beats Georgia: Same as above. UGA would finish 9-9 and fall below Kentucky. UK would lose this tiebreaker and finish last among the 10-8 teams.

No. 10 seed

— Lose to Florida + Alabama beats Auburn + Georgia beats Mississippi State + Texas beats Oklahoma + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt: UK loses this tiebreaker whether A&M is 10-8 or 11-7. This scenario creates a huge tie. Kentucky and Vanderbilt own worst pool record (2-3). Vandy wins the tiebreaker due to best win (Alabama) since the Tide would finish ahead of Arkansas.

OR

— Lose to Florida + LSU beats Texas A&M + Georgia beats Mississippi State + Texas beats Oklahoma + Tennessee beats Vanderbilt: This creates a six-team tie at 10-8. UK finishes last in the tiebreaker due to pool record (2-4).

Standings as of Saturday morning

Florida is locked into the No. 1 seed. Right now, Alabama and Arkansas are tied for second, with the Crimson Tide having the edge due to its win in the head-to-head meeting. Tennessee is in the No. 4 spot, with Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Kentucky all tied for fifth. Using the pool-play tiebreakers, the Cats have the lowest winning percentage of the four, putting them at No. 8.

SeedTeamRecordGames Remaining
1Florida15–2at Kentucky
2Alabama12–5Auburn
3Arkansas12–5at Missouri
4Tennessee11–6Vanderbilt
5Missouri10–7Arkansas
6Vanderbilt10–7at Tennessee
7Texas A&M10–7at LSU
8Kentucky10–7Florida
9Georgia9–8at Mississippi State
10Texas9–8Oklahoma
11Auburn7–10at Alabama
12Oklahoma6–11at Texas
13Mississippi State5–12Georgia
14Ole Miss4–13South Carolina
15LSU3–14Texas A&M
16South Carolina3–14at Ole Miss

SEC Tournament Bracket

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2026-05-20