KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Santa Clara

by: KSR03/20/26

Kentucky Basketball opens the NCAA Tournament on Friday, playing in the first game of the day at 12:15 p.m. The first-round opponent? The No. 10 seed Santa Clara Broncos, coached by former UK assistant Herb Sendek out of the West Coast Conference.

KSR has already covered every angle of this game in the lead-up, with scouting reports, pregame interviews, and lots more. Now, it’s time to reveal KSR’s true thoughts about the matchup, with PARLOUR Pizza Predictions as we count down to tip-off.

Drew Franklin

Santa Clara deserves all of the respect it is getting ahead of the first-round matchup with Kentucky. Herb Sendek is everything people say he is, and the Broncos are a dangerous tournament team.

That being said, this is Kentucky playing a 10-seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. There shouldn’t be any fear or intimidation. Mark Pope, light a fire under your players and handle business in St. Louis. Kentucky’s ceiling is much higher, so play like you want to win, get that win, and move on. It’s as simple as that for me. I think they do it because I can’t imagine the alternative. This is Kentucky. Do your assignment.

Score: Kentucky 81, Santa Clara 73

Nick Roush

I hate to be that guy, but allow me to be that guy. Am I scared of Santa Clara? Of course, not. But I have been a fan of theirs for a while. One month ago, I wrote about the Broncos as a team that could create some Madness in March. They punched their NCAA Tournament ticket, and my mind is unchanged.

Santa Clara plays a fun, uptempo style. Their pace isn’t as fast as Alabama’s, but it’s comparable to what we saw against Texas A&M and Georgia. Do you know what happened when Kentucky played those teams? The Wildcats lost.

Kentucky has not been playing its best basketball. More specifically, Collin Chandler has not been playing his best ball. He’s scored in double-figures just once over the last five games. It’s hard for the Wildcats to win if he’s not making shots. Maybe Kentucky can slow it down and grind out a win, but I’m not optimistic. Hopefully, I’m wrong. Fade Roush.

Score: Santa Clara 79, Kentucky 75

Adam Luckett

Another NCAA Tournament game for the University of Kentucky basketball program has arrived. This SEC powerhouse will be facing a team from the West Coast Conference that is dancing for the first time since 1996. That’s when Mark Pope was winning a national championship as a player. This is a Super Bowl for Santa Clara.

But Kentucky has the advantages entering this game.

The Broncos are all-in on turnovers on defense. What happens when this pressure team cannot force takeaways? This No. 10 seed gives up a ton of shot attempts. Santa Clara ranks sub-200 in defensive rebound percentage, free throw rate, and two-point field goal percentage. That means UK should get second chance opportunities, a ton of shots at the rim, and plenty of swings at the free throw line. The Cats should score easily in St. Louis.

Meanwhile, Santa Clara never gets to the line and is heavily reliant on the three-point shot. The small underdog will need a lot of them to fall, but should get plenty of shot volume due to a strong offensive rebound since they are so spread out and three-point heavy on offense. Kentucky’s guards will need to rebound.

Santa Clara is a trendy pick but this game sets up for the Big Blue. Kentucky wins two and free throws. As long as they avoid 15 turnovers, UK should be in good shape. This is similar to the Texas A&M matchup where UK won for 30 minutes but lost the game because of a nuclear run. There will be no nuclear runs on Friday night.

Kentucky gets a lead early and never loses it. Otega Oweh has a big day and the three-point defense is good enough to advance to the Round of 32.

Score: Kentucky 83, Santa Clara 74

Zack Geoghegan

Ball movement will win the game for Kentucky. Santa Clara is not a good defensive team. Opponents rack up assists against them. UK hasn’t won a game this season (0-4) with fewer than 10 assists. Get over that number — not a tough task — and a victory should follow. Kentucky’s talent will overwhelm the Broncos as the game goes along, but the ‘Cats can’t let them get hot from deep. Limit Santa Clara to fewer than 25 three-point attempts.

Allen Graves is a talented player and a future pro. He’ll give Kentucky fits and go through spurts where he takes over the game. But he will not beat UK by himself. Santa Clara’s guards like to take tough shots. Let them. If Kentucky can keep its turnovers low, it’ll have no problem scoring against this Santa Clara group. My only worry is that the Broncos go nuclear from deep. If Mark Pope’s group can avoid that, a spot in Sunday’s Round of 32 will be theirs.

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Score: Kentucky 85, Santa Clara 74

Tyler Thompson

I am worried Kentucky won’t make it out of this weekend; given how this season has gone, it’s easy to talk yourself into it being on Friday vs. Santa Clara. That said, I think the Cats take care of business.

The Broncos may have two talented players in Allen Graves and Elijah Mahi, but Kentucky has Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen, who will be the difference makers with their college basketball careers on the line. Listening to Oweh in the press conference, I think Oweh will be particularly motivated to ensure his run isn’t over.

As long as Kentucky doesn’t get burned from the three-point line — and doesn’t go cold on its end — the Cats will advance to Sunday. What happens then may be a different story, but let’s start by avoiding the worst-case scenario.

Score: Kentucky 82, Santa Clara 76

Jacob Polacheck

It’s March, folks, and Kentucky is getting things started with Santa Clara. This is a matchup that, if played right, could work to Kentucky’s advantage with Santa Clara spreading its minutes across the whole team. That could allow Kentucky to take advantage of matchups with Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen.

Kentucky will need to take care of the ball, slow Santa Clara’s pace, and rely on its talent. Santa Clara got an at-large bid for a reason, and UK can’t overlook that. Otega Oweh is my MVP pick with another 20-point game, while Collin Chandler gets into a rhythm on offense. Cats roll.

Score: Kentucky 85, Santa Clara 77

Jack Pilgrim

This season has been a massive disappointment, but you know what would make none of it matter? Kentucky going on a freaking run. Beat Santa Clara and everyone will be back on track, then beat Iowa State on Sunday and Big Blue Nation will be partying all the way to Chicago next weekend. That’s what we need to be speaking into existence, and, at least when it comes to the first part of that equation, I’m feeling pretty good about it.

The Broncos are very good and deserve their at-large bid as a No. 10, forcing a ton of turnovers and dominating on the offensive glass while taking and making threes with serious volume. Factor in the storylines of the program’s 30th anniversary of its last NCAA Tournament appearance — when it pulled off a similar upset in the same spot, led by Steve Nash — and I get why there is fear. I felt it right when the draw was announced.

The reality, though, is that the Wildcats are more talented and real experience in this event that no one on the other side has. That stuff matters. Otega Oweh can capitalize on their flaws with two-point defense and rim protection and the combination of Denzel Aberdeen and Mo Dioubate were brought in specifically for this moment. That’s why they all got paid the big bucks, and we’re gonna see it on Friday.

Cats roll.

Score: Kentucky 83, Santa Clara 69

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