Kentucky is still projected to make a bowl game ahead of Governor's Cup

Kentucky’s bowl eligibility comes down to the Governor’s Cup: beat Louisville and go to the postseason, or lose and immediately enter what will likely be a confusing offseason for the program.

But less than 24 hours after the Wildcats were taken to the woodshed by No. 12 Vanderbilt in embarrassing fashion, the experts believe the former is still more likely to happen. As of Sunday morning, ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach both have Kentucky going bowling as the ‘Cats sit on a 5-6 overall record with one more regular-season game left on the schedule.

Bonagura has Kentucky taking on Illinois in the ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31, Noon ET | ESPN) while Schlabach projects UK will battle Houston in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, 9:15 p.m. ET | ESPN). They aren’t the only ones with the ‘Cats in the postseason, either. Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports put Kentucky in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Jan. 2, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN) against Cincinnati.

Kentucky will have to beat the Cardinals to make any of the above a possibility. A five-win team can *technically* still make a bowl, but there are 72 teams already eligible for 80 bowl game spots. UK is among the 20-plus teams currently sitting on five wins going into the final week of the regular season. If fewer than 80 teams become bowl eligible, it comes down to Academic Progress Rate scores for the five-win teams, per Forbes, although that outcome does not seem likely.

Despite Kentucky’s rough loss in Nashville on Saturday, the timing of the final opponent couldn’t be any more favorable. After a 7-1 start to the season, Louisville has dropped three consecutive games and appears to be nose-diving straight into team-wide chaos. The Cardinals went into SMU and got blown out 38-6 on Saturday. That being said, UL is still the betting favorite (-4.5, per BetMGM) and has a 52.9 percent chance of beating UK, per ESPN.

On the flip side, On3’s Brett McMurphy does not have Kentucky listed in his updated bowl projections. The Governor’s Cup is set for Saturday, Nov. 29, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Noon ET | ACC Network).

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