Kentucky Oaks 152: Odds, Analysis, and a Prediction

The best three-year-old fillies in the world will race under the Churchill Downs lights on Friday night in the 152nd running of the Kentucky Oaks. The 8:40 p.m. ET post time has drawn the ire of many in the city of Louisville, serving as a distraction for the excellent race that will get a Friday night primetime broadcast window on NBC.

Run at 1 1/8 miles, the Kentucky Oaks is a Grade I Stakes with a $1.5 million purse. The 14-horse field is wide open with multiple win contenders.

The Kentucky Oaks Field

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The Favorite and Her Last Foe

Mike Repole is the outspoken owner of Zany, who opens as the top choice at 4-1. Trained by Todd Pletcher, with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, this filly cruised to victory in her first three races before shipping to Keeneland for the Ashland Stakes. She has the best speed figure in the field, but on opening day at Keeneland, she didn’t get the pace she was looking for.

Percy’s Bar crashed the party at Keeneland. Trained by Ben Colebrook, she had not raced since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. It didn’t look like her first start of the year. Percy’s Bar fired up the rail and blew past the competition with an impressive win by 2.5 lengths.

5 Other Kentucky Oaks Contenders

Meaning opened at 5-1 but may very well end up being the favorite. In four starts, her only loss was a fourth-place finish at the Breeders’ Cup last fall. Trained by Mike McCarthy, she posted a sharp five-furlong workout at 1:00 over the weekend.

Explora finished second in that Breeders’ Cup race. After faltering with a second-place finish at Santa Anita in February, Bob Baffert shipped her to Oaklawn where she punched her ticket with a win in the Honeybee. The inside post position is right where she wants to be. A clean break could pave the way way for a front-running win.

Mark Casse’s Counting Stars had the most dominant Kentucky Oaks prep of any horse in the field, running away with a 6-length win at Oaklawn Park in March.

Always a Runner is lightly raced, but Chad Brown’s filly is undefeated and ran a 95 Brisnet speed figure in a win earlier this month in the Gazelle, New York’s premier race for fillies. She saved ground on the rail, then made a late rally with an impressive final kick to secure a spot in the Kentucky Oaks.

Bella Ballerina is 12-1, but she was undefeated until her last race. That’s pretty good for a filly at 12-1. The Brendan Walsh-Tyler Gafflione has been hot as of late. She has a win at Churchill Downs on her resume. It would not be a surprise if she added another this Friday.

2 Long Shots that Will Take Money

Sometimes, a good name goes a long way. It will be a chilly day for all of the ladies in their pink sundresses. They will probably need to wear a Pashmina. The filly is 30-1, but will certainly draw in plenty of wagers from gamblers who love to bet on a name.

Dave Portnoy is an internet lightning rod. The Barstool Sports founder is an obnoxious sports fan, but one thing he takes seriously are his horses. His filly Lovely Grey was not expected to make the Kentucky Oaks, but a late scratch paved the way for the pretty horse to enter the starting gate. Stoolies will rally around their fearless leader and make plenty of wagers to drop the odds from 30-1 to closer to 15-1 by post time.

Kentucky Oaks Prediction

Prom Queen‘s resume has everything I love. She is trained by Brad Cox, who has three Kentucky Oaks wins in the last eight years, including last year’s victor, Good Cheer. More importantly, she has improved in every single start, winning her second race by eight lengths, then strolling past the competition from off the pace in a win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Prom Queen will be the win bet, but narrowing down the proper trifecta is another story. Good luck narrowing your scope in what is an impressive field of fillies in the 152nd running of the Kentucky Oaks.

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