Kentucky Derby Deja Vu: Chief Wallabee Shares Sovereignty's Path to Churchill Downs
Two months ago, I was scouring through the program for Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth Stakes. Chief Wallabee popped off the page.
This was a lightly-raced horse who was beginning his three-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth, trained by Bill Mott, and had Junior Alvarado aboard. If it worked so well a year ago, why not see if it will work again?
Unlike Sovereignty, Chief Wallabee did not enter the Winner’s Circle at Gulfstream Park, finishing a close second to Commandment.
A few weeks later, Mott kept Chief Wallabee on the Sovereignty path with a start in the Florida Derby. The most competitive of the Kentucky Derby preps this year, Chief Wallabee made a late charge, but once again, could not keep up with Commandment. Still, the third-place finish and a late defection were enough for Chief Wallabee to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Chief Wallabee is Becoming a Kentucky Derby Buzz Horse
Despite all the similarities to Sovereignty, it’s clear by now that this is not a one-for-one comparison. Sovereignty entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate with two wins in five starts, compared to just one in three for Chief Wallabee.
Bill Mott is deviating from the path with an equipment change. They are adding blinkers to narrow the young horse’s focus. The mask limits a horse’s peripheral vision, taking competition out of the line of sight.
“I think he was just looking at the horses in front, looking at the other horse outside,” Alvarado explained on the April 20 episode of BloodHorse Monday. “He was kind of holding his finish right there. I think the blinkers will do the trick for him.”
Chief Wallabee received his first test with blinkers at the Churchill Downs track on Monday. In the world of horse racing, any time at 48 seconds or faster at four furlongs and a minute or less at five furlongs is considered fast. While rocking blinkers, the horse went 48.2 and 1:00 flat at five furlongs. Bill Mott loved what he saw from his horse.
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“I thought it was very good, extremely good, looked like a Sovereignty work to me when he worked two weeks before the Derby,” the trainer told Daily Racing Form.
Losing Preps Actually Spells Good Fortune
On any typical race day, a horse fresh off a win is likely to be the top choice in the program. It’s wise to wager on a horse that’s improving, and particularly in the Kentucky Derby’s case, peaking at the right time. In previous years, that meant entering the Churchill Downs starting gate off a win. That trend has flipped. The last five Kentucky Derby winners did not win their final prep race.
2025: Sovereignty, 2nd Florida Derby
2024: Mystik Dan, 3rd Arkansas Derby
2023: Mage, 2nd Florida Derby
2022: Rich Strike, 3rd Jeff Ruby Steaks
2021: Mandaloun, 6th Louisiana Derby
Chief Wallabee is all over the trends, and there’s one other of note. For 136 years, “the Apollo curse” had its grip on the Kentucky Derby. If a horse did not race as a 2-year-old, it could not win on the first Saturday in May as a three-year-old. Apollo did it in 1882, and it was not done again until Justify started his Triple Crown ride to glory in 2018.
Chief Wallabee did not make his first start until January. The young horse has the right connections, plenty of potential, and some new equipment to help him focus. It be just enough to conquer the 20-horse field on the first Saturday in May.
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