Kentucky Derby 152: Odds, Analysis, and a Prediction

The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports is almost here. Horses will enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs for a 6:57 p.m. ET post time in the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

Donna Brothers will be on her final Kentucky Derby broadcast for NBC after riding with the winner for the last 26 years. Derby Day coverage begins at noon on Peacock and NBCSN. NBC will take over at 2:30 p.m. ET for a five-hour broadcast that includes six stakes races, culminating with the Kentucky Derby.

A year ago, it was a two-horse race between Sovereignty and Journalism. There is more uncertainty ahead of this year’s contest beneath the Twin Spires, opening the door for a long shot to blow up the tote board. Take a closer look at the field before you lock in your winning pick for Kentucky Derby 152.

The Field

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The Favorite

It took time for this year’s group of three-year-olds to post eye-popping performances in the lead-up to the first Saturday in May. Renegade provided that pop in the Arkansas Derby with a powerful final move down the middle of the track.

Irad Ortiz Jr. rode the three top horses in this year’s field. He picked Renegade over Commandment and Further Ado. That should tell you what kind of horse he has. Would he reconsider that decision if he knew that the closer would draw the No. 1 post position? The new starting gate has made the break much cleaner for the inside gate, but it still has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 1986.

Top Kentucky Derby Contenders

Chief Wallabee has the same winning connections as last year’s Derby winner. Ridden by Junior Alvarado and trained by Bill Mott, the latter decided to add blinkers to this speedy horse, who has come up just short in its last two starts in Florida. This horse has a lot of fans on the backside.

Commandment was the closer who caught Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby. Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment came from behind in each of his last two races in Florida before charging down the stretch to win by a neck or less with 100+ speed figures.

So Happy opened at 15-1, but has taken a ton of early money from bettors. The name might have something to do with it, but the horse looked formidable when taking out Bob Baffert’s heavily-favored Potente in the Santa Anita Derby.

Further Ado is another Brad Cox horse who enters this race with the highest speed figure. After winning the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall at Churchill Downs, he finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby to The Puma, then ran away from a weak field with an ELEVEN-length win in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes.

KSR’s Handicapping Preview

From potential long shots to the Kentucky Oaks and our favorite horses in the undercard, In The Money Media’s Pete Fornatale joined KSR to give you everything you need to know about Kentucky Derby 152.

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The Winning Trifecta Ticket

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest race of the year, both in the betting handle and the size of the field. There are plenty of ways to overthink this race, and I’m not going to do it any longer.

Six months from now at the Breeders’ Cup, we may be looking back and asking ourselves, “How did Further Ado go off at 8-1 in the Derby?” The biggest knock on this horse is his level of competition at Keeneland. You gotta race the horses next to you, and he made them all look like donkeys. Positioned just outside of Six Speed, who should run straight to the front, Further Ado can sit just off the pace on the outside, before breaking ahead in the final stretch while the closers try to catch him. Give me Further Ado, with plenty of price horses contending to fill up the trifecta.

The Trifecta Ticket: Key 18 Further Ado over 19 Fulleffort, 15 Emerging Market, 13 Chief Wallabee, 11 Incredibolt, and 6 Commandment ($8)
Full Disclosure: The Fulleffort scratch is forcing me to recallibrate. It’s Derby, I’m not holding anything back. You can box all of these selections for $60, and that’s what I’ll be doing.