Data Proves that NIL is Keeping College Basketball Players Away from the NBA Draft

The NBA Draft withdrawal deadline was one that Big Blue Nation kept a close eye on for many years. All too often, a player with plenty of promise decided to forego a chance to build on that momentum at Kentucky, instead opting to enter the NBA Draft.

There were plenty of “What If” stories from the Calipari era and beyond. What if Jodie Meeks hung around for an extra year to give John Calipari’s first team some extra outside shooting? What if Dakari Johnson gave Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray a physically dominant presence in the paint? What if Tyler Ulis could’ve gotten paid to play for another year at Kentucky?

We can’t answer those questions, but we can say unequivocally that more players are choosing to stay in college basketball longer, thanks to the financial incentives of the NIL and revenue-sharing era.

On Monday, the NBA announced that there are 71 early entrants in the 2026 NBA Draft. It’s the fewest since 2003. Last year, there were 106 early entrants in the NBA Draft, down from an all-time high of 363 in 2021, just before the start of the NIL era.

This is a simple game of dollars and cents. According to the rookie pay scale, the first player selected outside of the NBA Draft lottery last year earned $3.8 million in salary. The last pick of the first round was slotted to make $2.2 million. A top-notch player can easily exceed $4 million in the college basketball transfer portal.

If a player isn’t guaranteed to go in the lottery, they can make more money playing college basketball. What a wild time to be alive.

Florida’s Thomas Haugh was considered a fringe lottery pick. Instead of chancing it, he can make another year of salary, play in half as many games, and still earn his way into the lottery. That’s why he’s running it back with the Gators next season.

This model is probably not financially sustainable for college athletics. The University of Louisville is one of many schools “sounding the alarm” as athletic budget deficits increase. While power brokers try to figure out a better long-term solution, players are cashing in.

In the short term, this trend benefits both the NBA and college basketball. There is more marketable talent at the college level, and it’s being developed at no cost to the NBA, reducing risk for the professional organizations in the NBA Draft. There are many negative, unintended consequences to NIL, revenue-sharing, and the transfer portal, but this is one of the short-term benefits.