4 LIVE Long Shots in Kentucky Derby 152

Everybody is chasing a Kentucky Derby win. It’s even more satisfying when that win is unexpected.

You didn’t need to be a wise guy to place a wager on Justify or American Pharoah. But you better believe the gambler who preached the gospel of Mystik Dan had even more pep in his step after that win in 2024. I’ll Have Another’s victory at 15-1 has kept me coming back for another, year after year after year.

Renegade is the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby. That could shift to Further Ado or Commandment, thanks to Renegade’s post-position draw. No matter which of the three ultimately earns that title, it’s worth noting that a favorite hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby in seven years. Who could knock off the favorite this year at 15-1 or better? Allow me to make the case for these four horses.

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20. Fulleffort (20-1)

When fishing for a long shot, you’ve got to play an angle. The angle at play here is where this horse cut his teeth. Brad Cox started this horse on the turf, with big wins at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland, before heading to Turfway Park.

Rich Strike, Two Phil’s, and Final Gambit all raced at Turfway Park before appearing in the Kentucky Derby superfecta. The synthetic surface hasn’t just translated well to the Derby. Through the first two weeks of the Keeneland Spring Meet, horses from Turfway Park had more dirt wins than any other track.

Fulleffort is a closer with Tyler Gafflione aboard, who posted a great work last week. He’s poised to make some noise from the outside post.

15. Emerging Market (15-1)

Paddock reporters like Andi Biancone and Maggie Wolfendale can look at a horse and know that it’s game to run a big race. I do not possess that talent. However, a blind man could see how incredible this horse looks in the morning. Emerging Market is a fit horse who looks poised and is willing to do whatever his rider asks of him. Speaking of his rider, Flavien Prat’s Kentucky Derby record is impeccable.

If you limit it to the Derby its a win, one second, four thirds and a fourth from eight mounts. Anyone care to wheel Emerging Market, who is 15-1 on the ML, in the superfecta?

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) April 27, 2026

Emerging Market has only raced twice. Despite his inexperience, he was battle-tested by the front-running Pavlovian in the Louisiana Derby. Fade Chad Brown’s horse at your own risk.

4. Litmus Test (50-1)

Wanna play an angle? You’re getting a Bob Baffert horse at 50-1. Even if you don’t love this horse’s speed figures since his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, investing in a Baffert horse with astronomical odds isn’t the worst idea.

Want more plays during Kentucky Derby week? We’re sharing tip sheets on KSR Plus starting on Thurby. Come join the fun.

11. Incredibolt (20-1)

Incredibolt won his way into the Kentucky Derby by winning the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. Many horseplayers downplay the significance of that race for two reasons. One, it was only recently added to the Kentucky Derby trail after CDI purchased Colonial Downs and moved the race from the summer to the spring. They moved it to mid-March, creating a long layoff between this race and the Derby.

If you’re willing to look past the lighter field he faced in the Virginia Derby, consider this. Mage is the only Kentucky Derby winner since the pandemic that did not have a prior win at Churchill Downs on his resume. Incredibolt won twice at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old, including the Grade III Street Sense Stakes.