What’s the Line? (vs. Ole Miss in Sugar Bowl)

According to the current BetMGM odds, Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite over Ole Miss with a point total of 56.5 for their matchup in New Orleans’ Sugar Bowl on January 1. Considering the teams are playing for the second time this season, Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread (ATS) when facing an opponent for the second time in the same season.

Matchup: Georgia is 12-1 straight up and 6-7 ATS this season. In their last game, the Bulldogs defeated Alabama, 28-7, as a 1.5-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game to capture the conference title. Georgia has covered six of its last nine games since going a dismal 3-15 ATS beginning with the second game of last season. Ole Miss is 12-1 straight up and 7-6 ATS this season. Yesterday in the first round of the College Football Playoffs, the Rebels defeated Tulane, 41-10, at home in Oxford, covering as a 16.5-point favorite.

Coaching Trends: In 12 postgame bowl appearances at Georgia, Smart is an impressive 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS, including last season’s 23-10 loss to Notre Dame as a 1-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl. The four previous times Smart faced a team for the second time in the same season: Auburn in 2017 (loss—win), Alabama in 2021 (loss—win), Texas in 2024 (win—win), and Alabama this season (loss—win). Before recently stepping in for Lane Kiffin as head coach, Pete Golding served as Ole Miss’ defensive coordinator for three seasons. In the seven games when Ole Miss was considered the underdog while Golding was their defensive coordinator, the Rebels won four outright, including a 28-10 win over Georgia last season in Oxford as a 2-point underdog. In addition, since Golding has been at Ole Miss, the Rebels are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS in the postseason, including yesterday’s rout of Tulane.  

Series History: Beginning in 1998, or when Smart was a senior safety for the Bulldogs, Georgia is 11-2 straight up and 9-4 ATS against Ole Miss (that includes 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS vs. the Rebels at home). The last time these two teams met was earlier this season in mid-October in Athens, when Georgia defeated Ole Miss, 43-35, while barely covering as a 7.5-point favorite. Before the Sugar Bowl, the last Georgia-Ole Miss football game at a “neutral”/off-campus site was played 40 years ago on October 12, 1985, at Jackson, Mississippi’s Memorial Stadium.