Keys: Louisville takes on California in ACC opener
Louisville enters conference play ranked No. 16 in the country. Starting the season 10-2, the Cardinals have an early ACC test against a one-loss California squad.
Following a 10-day hiatus, both programs are looking to extend their respective winning streaks. California has won 12 out of its 13 games, only two away from its last season total. Led by head coach Mark Madsen, his squad is already exceeding expectations.
Following a three-point loss at Kansas State, California has won nine in a row, including an upset over No. 18 UCLA. Undefeated at home, this Golden Bears defense has contained all teams that have stepped foot in Haas Pavilion. Averaging 83.1 points per game, good for 89th in the country, California has shot well from distance but is flawed by inconsistent rebounding.
Louisville has lost two of its previous five games. After getting demolished 83-62 against Tennessee, the Cardinals bounced back with a 40-point victory against Montana. Shooting concerns have been raised as of late, but that won’t stop head coach Pat Kelsey from averaging 35 three-pointers per game.
After the long break, Louisville hopes to bring back a healthy Mikel Brown Jr. and Kobe Rodgers, who missed the previous game.
Beating a strong California defense
California has given up 66.7 points per game, good for 50th in the country and sixth in the ACC. Holding their previous two opponents to an average of 53 points, their defensive strength comes when guarding the three-point line.
Justin Pippen, son of NBA legend Scottie Pippen, leads California with 1.7 steals per game while Dai Dai Ames averages 1.2 per game. This team gets production from everyone, as John Camden, Semetri Carr, and Nolan Dorsey all put up 0.7 steals per game.
Allowing 89 three-pointers on 289 attempts, good for 30.9%, California has done a great job defending around the arc. Louisville sits inside the top five for most three-point attempts and makes in the country. Cardinal guards Adrian Wooley, Ryan Conwell, and, depending on the health of Brown and Rodgers, will need to spread the wealth and do a good job penetrating this California team that likes to pressure ball-handlers.
Kansas State showed the college basketball world that scoring on this top-ranked defense is possible. Putting up 99 points on 64 percent shooting, the Wildcats hit 50 percent of their shots from deep and went to the line 21 times.
The Golden Bears possess a solid interior presence, averaging 4.2 blocks per game, good for 77th in the nation. Veteran forward Lee Dort controls the post with his 1.2 blocks per game, while 7-foot big man Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut averages one block in under five minutes per game.
Winning the three-point battle
California takes 24 three-pointers per game. Even with Louisville attempting 11 more per game, they shoot it at a far worse clip than their Tuesday opponent. Shooting it 38.78% from behind the arc, California has done a great job hitting shots when they are open.
Ames has solidified himself as one of the top shooters from distance in the country, averaging 46.4 percent from three on almost five attempts per game. The 6-foot-2 guard comes in leading the team with 17.7 points per game after putting up less than 10 the previous two seasons.
Camden and Chris Bell have also been consistent, averaging 40 percent or better from behind the line. While Camden shoots the most from three, Bell recently had a 28-point performance with four threes in a win over Morgan State.
With 112 attempts from behind the arc, Conwell is one of the few Louisville sharpshooters. Hitting 32 percent of his three-pointers through the last five games, Conwell has been struggling to reach his season average of 39.3.
After a sluggish two-game stint, McKneely rebounded with four triples against Montana. His off-ball movement and catch-and-shoot ability will be necessary against this tough California defense. Wooley is another player heating up, hitting eight three-pointers in his last three contests.
Criticized for its “live or die” shooting mentality, Kelsey has no plans on changing his playstyle. The question is whether Louisville’s high-volume tactics will outduel California’s consistent approach from distance.
Louisville needs to capitalize on the boards
Other than Dort averaging 7.6 rebounds per game, there are few positives about California on the boards. Ranked 219th in the nation for rebounds per game, Louisville averages 6 more boards per game than the Golden Bears.
Louisville has struggled with letting up offensive rebounds. Luckily for the Cardinals, California only averages 9.85 offensive boards per game, good for 288th in the country. A lack of talent on the interior has caused struggles in boxing out and creating second-chance opportunities.
Louisville big man Sananda Fru has been great on the offensive end but has recently stepped up, averaging 6.8 rebounds per game in his last five contests.
In the Cardinals’ two losses, they were out-rebounded by an average margin of 7.5 per game. With a struggling California team on the glass, this is an important aspect of the game that Louisville needs to dominate.
High-level shooting meets defensive tenacity when Louisville heads out west. The Cardinals have an early wake-up call in conference play that could be a key insight into how the conference finishes.
