Game preview: How does Louisville beat South Florida?
With or without Mikel Brown Jr, Louisville is both the more talented and proven basketball team ahead of Thursday’s Round of 64 matchup with the 11-seeded South Florida Bulls.
That still hasn’t stopped Bryan Hodgson’s team from exuding confidence in the days following the selection show. South Florida leading scorer Wes Enis even said he feels the Bulls are the “better team” entering the game in Buffalo, New York.
We’ll find out if Enis is right in less than 24 hours, but for now, let’s take a look at the ins and outs of the Bulls and see where Louisville, down its lead ball-handler for the fourth straight game, can take advantage of a comparable opponent, survive, and advance.
Pressure on Adrian Wooley
With Mikel Brown Jr’s absence through the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, an immediate pressure is put on sophomore guard Adrian Wooley to carry the majority of the Cardinals’ ball-handling load.
South Florida has turned its last three opponents over at least 14 times, and, similar to Louisville’s most recent opponent, Miami, hedges hard on ball-screens and likes to force turnovers. Hodgson’s team plays the 15th-fastest tempo in the country and thrives in transition, getting easy baskets. Louisville will be given the chance to run with the Bulls, so to speak, as last time out against the Hurricanes, the Cards were crushed by 13 turnovers, six of which came from Wooley.
For a young player, going from hitting the game-winning shot and playing mistake-free to struggling against the same opponent in the same week isn’t exactly uncommon. But, it’s survive and advance from here on out, and one more night like last Thursday’s ACC Quarterfinal loss and this season is over.
There is room for optimism as Wooley has been able to hold his own against lesser opponents, and this South Florida team also doesn’t have great positional size at the guard spot. In Louisville’s three wins before the most recent loss in Charlotte, Wooley had totaled 10 assists and one turnover.
In the games without Brown and the ones where Wooley has been the Cardinals’ point guard, Louisville is 7-5, and Wooley is averaging 11.5 points.
Another silver lining of having Wooley in the lineup is that Louisville gets to the foul line at a significantly greater rate because of his downhill attacking ability. He didn’t get to the foul line in the last loss to Miami, but the Cards are 7-1 in games where he attempts at least four free throws. South Florida is well below average in defending without fouling, with a defensive free-throw rate of 38.8, 278th in the nation.
Enis vs. Conwell
Staying in the backcourt, senior guard Ryan Conwell will need to win his matchup against one of the most underrated players in the tournament — USF’s Wes Enis. The two leading scorers play in a very similar offensive style: a high-volume 3-point shooter with over 100 makes, a less aggressive but efficient driver, a fearless late-game competitor, and a determined defender.
Enis has scored in double-figures in 13 of his last 14 games, making five or more 3s in four of those games. The 6-foot-2 junior college product is used to playing a high volume of minutes, leading the team in field-goal attempts, and guarding the opponent’s best player. Like Conwell, he isn’t the best primary ball-handler, so if Louisville can win on the perimeter defensively, the Cardinals could be in good shape. The overall drive and kick game is a large part of USF’s offense, and Louisville has not been a good one-on-one defensive team this season, so the little things like communication, switching on time, and knowing rotations will be crucial.
Conwell hasn’t been hitting his 3s at his usual clip over the last few weeks, but has consistently delivered when Louisville has needed him to in late-game situations. In the ACC Tournament win over SMU, he outscored the Mustangs all by himself in the final two minutes, and as a senior playing in his final NCAA Tournament, the All-ACC Second Team guard should be able to meet the moment.
One of those Hadley games
Starting only one player over 6-foot-5, J’Vonne Hadley will be an early threat to score in the post and carve out space for Louisville’s guards to drive into the lane. His stretch ability should be a factor as the sixth-year senior has made at least one three-pointer in nine consecutive games.
He’s been the most consistent Cardinal on both ends this season, and whenever Louisville has needed a big basket, they’ve gone to him over his left shoulder on the block. Hadley’s experience, of course, should also pay dividends, as this will be his third straight year competing in March Madness.
Hadley’s matchup, South Florida’s Josh Omojafo, stands at just 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds and thrives by drawing fouls. His free-throw rate of 76.8 in conference games is second-best in the American. Pat Kelsey’s frontcourt, including Hadley, must avoid foul trouble.
Tip-off of the 34th all-time meeting between the Bulls and Cards is at 1:30 PM EST on TNT.
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