2026 NFL Draft Report Card: How every recruiting service stacked up

The NFL Draft is often the yardstick by which recruiting rankings are judged. Coming out of college football, the NFL Draft represents the best indication of a player’s ability. NFL Draft picks account for the vast majority of the best players in college football. Outside of recruiting rankings, it’s the only other point in a player’s career where they are sorted by talent and ability in a quantitative form.

With that in mind, a report card for how recruiting rankings across the industry stack up can be produced by scoring the NFL Draft. After previously breaking down the first round, we are now expanding the lens to all seven rounds for a more complete picture of how each outlet fared. Doing so allows us to learn from successes and mistakes in hopes of improving our rankings product down the road.

By and large, the recruiting industry does a great job of projecting future success at the college level on an annual basis. Forecasting a 17-18 year-old high school football player as a future draft pick relative to thousands of peers is much easier said than done.

Note: Beginning with the 2026 cycle (as early as the 2029 NFL Draft) there will be three outlets compared: Rivals, 247Sports, and ESPN following On3’s acquisition and integration of Rivals as its recruiting brand in July 2025. 

Closest to the pick: How each outlet stacked up

The method: To keep this as simple as possible, we will assign a winner for each draft pick based on how close the numeric ranking is to their draft spot. If there is an equal distance between two rankings and the draft spot, those sites will get credit for a win, including if the highest ranking is an unranked four-star. No winner is awarded for players who were not ranked as a blue-chip prospect (4-star or 5-star) by any site. We are counting prospects from the 2021-2023 cycles, as On3’s inaugural ranking came during the 2021 cycle. 

Results for the 2026 NFL Draft’s first round:
1. On3 – 8
2. 247Sports, Rivals (previous scouting team)– 6 (tied)
3. ESPN – 5

Three year running total: Round 1 (2021-2023 cycles):
1. On3 – 28
2. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 15 (tie)
3. 247Sports, ESPN – 14 (tie)

Overall, it was another strong showing by the recruiting industry as 25/32 (78%) first-rounders were ranked as a five-star or a four-star by at least one outlet. One of the non-blue-chip players signed with a G6 program out of high school, making for a 81% hit rate on blue-chip first-rounders who signed at the Power 4 level. Seven first-rounders were ranked as Rivals Industry five-stars: Sonny Styles, Francis Mauigoa, Caleb Downs, Kadyn Proctor, Ty Simpson, Monroe Freeling, and Peter Woods. Styles, Mauigoa, Downs, and Proctor were Five-Star Plus+ prospects – those who are five-stars for every outlet. Additionally, Carnell Tate (247Sports, Rivals’ previous scouting team) and Makai Lemon (ESPN) were ranked as five-stars by at least one outlet, bringing the total to 9/32 five-stars in the first round.

Results for the 2026 NFL Draft’s Rounds 1-3
1. On3 – 22
2. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 16
3. 247Sports – 15
4. ESPN – 13

Three year running total: Rounds 1-3 (2021-2023 cycles):
1. On3 – 64
2. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 33
3. 247Sports – 31
4. ESPN – 27

We view rounds 1-3 as a key barometer of rankings success. In looking to establish big picture trends within the NFL Draft, we find that the first three rounds present the best mix of top prospects who project as NFL starters and a sample size large enough to account for all positions.

Results for the 2026 NFL Draft’s Rounds 1-7
1. On3 – 40
2. ESPN – 32
3. 247Sports – 29
4. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 28

Three year running total: Rounds 1-7 (2021-2023 cycles):
1. On3 – 97
2. ESPN – 63
3. 247Sports – 57
4. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 54

Measuring consistency across the industry

We can get a feel for the consistency of rankings by measuring the average distance from high school ranking to the draft spot for prospects who are ranked as a blue-chip by at least one outlet. This measure helps to account for big hits and misses relative to the rest of the industry. 

In assessing the first round, On3 and 247Sports had the most consistent rankings relative to the draft spot for prospects from the 2021-2023 recruiting cycles for the second consecutive year.

Through three rounds, On3’s rankings landed around 19% closer to the actual draft slot than 247Sports, 33% closer than Rivals’ previous scouting team, and 36% closer than ESPN. Across the full draft, On3’s rankings landed about 14% closer to the actual draft slot than 247Sports, 34% closer than ESPN, and 40% closer than Rivals’ previous scouting team.

Which outlet identified the most future draft picks

Blue-chip prospects – defined as four-stars and five-stars – are players who are projected as future draft picks. Here is the tally of prospects from the 2021-2023 cycles who were tabbed as a blue-chip prospect by each site.

1. On3 – 105
2. ESPN – 99
3. 247Sports – 98
4. Rivals (previous scouting team) –91

The biggest wins across the industry

These are prospects that each outlet had ranked considerably higher than the rest of the industry and were also the closest to the draft spot. 

On3: Jeremiyah Love, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Vega Ioane (blue-chip outlier), Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling (5-star outlier), Caleb Lomu, Chase Bisontis, Colton Hood (blue-chip outlier), R Mason Thomas, Zion Young (blue-chip outlier), Brandon Cisse (blue-chip outlier), Malachi Fields (blue-chip outlier)

247Sports: David Bailey, Spencer Fano, Kenyon Sadiq, Jadarian Price, Kayden McDonald, CJ Allen, Eli Stowers (ranked as a QB), Markell Bell (blue-chip outlier), Oscar Delp, Chris McClellan

ESPN: Mansoor Delane (blue-chip outlier), Makai Lemon (5-star outlier), Denzel Boston (blue-chip outlier), Jacob Rodriguez (blue-chip outlier/ranked as a QB), Lee Hunter, Sam Roush, Gennings Dunker (blue-chip outlier)

Rivals (previous scouting team): Carnell Tate, Rueben Bain, KC Concepcion (blue-chip outlier), Omar Cooper Jr. (blue-chip outlier), Keldric Faulk (5-star outlier), Christen Miller, Avieon Terrell, Domonique Orange (blue-chip outlier)