NFL insider: Teams believe Tua Tagovailoa will be 'eventually' released to free agency

The future for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami could be heading to an unceremonious end after six seasons as the Dolphins quarterback. Whether it ends in trade or ultimately free agency remains to be seen.

Tagovailoa is still under contract until 2028 and has over $50 million left in guaranteed money. The Dolphins are searching for options, as his contract carries a cap hit of $56.3 million and a dead cap value of $99.2 million.

“Well, people I’ve talked to around the league with other teams believe that Miami is going to have to eventually release to a Tua Tagovailoa, because of that $54 million in (contract) guarantees,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler revealed during an appearance on SportsCenter Saturday morning.

“The hope would be that Miami could pull off a trade where a new team would take on and absorb a lot of that money, or at least a portion of it. Well, teams don’t really want to do that, so they might wait this out and see if they pay for it all.”

Fowler said if Tagovailoa did become a free agent, the thought would be that another team could sign him for less money than they could if they took on his current contract through a trade. Still, that remains for the Dolphins to decide. Unless the Dolphins can offload his contract to another team, it appears Miami will be in for a costly divorce from their QB1.

This comes two seasons after Tagovailoa took a leap forward in his first two years under Mike McDaniel in Miami, including a league-leading 4,624 passing yards to go with 29 touchdowns in 2023. However, he struggled from there as injuries mounted. He threw for 2,660 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2025 in 14 games before being benched.

Contractually, there is a potential out in Tagovailoa’s deal after 2026. In 2027, releasing him to free agency would result in a much more affordable $34.8 million dead cap hit.

If Miami goes this route and Tagovailoa’s contract remains, he’ll be entering the third year of a 4-year, $212.4 million contract extension in 2026. However, prior reports are leaning toward this not being the case.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter said last month that there’s a feeling that the former Alabama star had played his last game in Miami. Schefter warned that once Tagovailoa’s contract is taken care of, the most important issue facing the Dolphins would be finding someone to replace him.