Mel Kiper: Arch Manning must improve accuracy to be No. 1 pick in 2027 NFL Draft

Mel Kiper Jr. isn’t buying into the extremes when it comes to Arch Manning. Not the early anointing, but also not the recent criticism of his play.

Instead, he’s landing somewhere in the middle. Additionally, he’s making one thing clear, and that’s if Manning wants to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, there’s still work to do.

Speaking on ESPN’s First Draft podcast alongside Field Yates, Kiper pushed back on the rollercoaster narrative that has followed Manning since before he ever became a full-time starter at Texas: “This country loves to build up and tear down,” Kiper said.

That’s exactly what has happened. Manning entered last season with sky-high expectations, many projecting him as a future No. 1 pick before he had even fully taken over the offense. When those expectations weren’t immediately met, the conversation flipped, from hype to skepticism almost overnight. But Kiper sees growth.

Manning improved as the season progressed, settling in after an inconsistent start and showing flashes of why he was so highly regarded coming out of high school. The tools are there, like his size, mobility and arm talent, everything teams look for in a franchise quarterback.

The issue? Consistency: “You can’t be at 60% if you’re gonna be the No. 1 pick,” Kiper said, pointing to Manning’s completion percentage hovering in that range. “You’ve got to be up around 70%.”

That’s the standard. It’s where other top quarterbacks in the class, like Dante Moore, have already separated themselves statistically. For Manning, it’s not about proving he can make highlight throws, it’s about doing it play after play, game after game.

At the top of the draft, there’s no margin for inconsistency. Still, there’s belief. Even among skeptics, the consensus is that Manning’s ceiling remains incredibly high. NFL evaluators continue to bet on his development, especially under head coach Steve Sarkisian, who has a strong track record with quarterbacks.

That’s what makes this next season so important. The expectations haven’t disappeared, they’ve just shifted. Now, it’s less about projecting what Manning could be, and more about proving what he is.

If the accuracy improves and the consistency follows, the No. 1 overall pick conversation will take care of itself. Until then, the hype, and the questions, remain. Time will tell if Manning can take the bull by the horns, or if he falls a bit when it comes to the NFL Draft.