Final Four 2026: Michigan Slightly Favored to Win Historic Final Four

The 2026 men’s basketball Final Four is set, and it looks like it could be an all-time classic. 

Illinois and Michigan are short favorites to meet in Monday’s championship game, and their fans should have no problem making it to Indianapolis. 

Meanwhile, UConn is hunting for historic greatness. And Arizona might have more NBA talent than all of them.

For the final time this year, here are some insights from inside the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

How Sportsbook Bettors Have Fared So Far

All things considered, it’s been a pretty good NCAA Tournament for many public bettors, including those at BetMGM. The early games returned loads of favorite wins and covers, cashing many parlays and chalky bets. 

At one point during the first week of games, favorites won 22 games in a row. 

The sportsbook recouped some of those losses during the regional games, with Illinois’ upset win over Houston checking in as a particularly positive outcome for BetMGM. 

The remaining futures book looks pretty positive for BetMGM players. Michigan has been a popular pick throughout the year and remains one of only two teams with a 10% ticket share going into the Final Four. 

That other team is Arizona, which has been the target of gobs of money from both square and sharp bettors alike over the last month. The Wildcats, who were priced as favorites in late January and February, accounted for 11.3% of tickets and 18.4% of championship handle at BetMGM as of March 30. Both figures were market highs.

UConn, which won back-to-back national championships in 2023-24, was a semi-popular midrange target to win the championship. So while the Huskies don’t account for nearly as many tickets among BetMGM players as the two remaining No. 1 seeds do, the odds at which they have been offered make them BetMGM’s biggest remaining financial liability at the Final Four.

Picking a Winner in Michigan vs. Arizona

BetMGM’s college basketball odds market suggests that the winner of Saturday’s semifinal game between Michigan (+170) and Arizona (+180) will enter the national championship as a significant favorite. 

Illinois, in particular, could have something to say about that. But at least as far as the wisdom of the market is concerned, bettors can pick the national champion by correctly betting the Arizona vs. Michigan game odds. 

Both teams play fast and score in a multitude of ways, so the case for the over will remain even with two championship defenses.

Arizona will need to solve Michigan’s strong interior defense in order to keep up with the Wolverines’ comparatively better (and more frequent) 3-point shooting. 

Michigan will have to reckon with the fact that Arizona is one opponent that can match, and perhaps even surpass, its own athleticism. Each team has three likely first-round draft picks this summer, but Arizona’s remaining bodies probably edge out what Michigan will put on the floor. 

UConn Can Make History – But Don’t Hold Your Breath

UConn coach Dan Hurley is two wins away from winning a third college basketball national championship in four years, which is a rare feat in the annals of the sport. 

Only two other coaches have done such a thing, and they’re both huge names: John Wooden (duh) and Adolph Rupp. Kentucky won titles in 1948, 1949, and 1951. 

This would be a huge accomplishment for Hurley and would continue to cement the idea that UConn is the top-performing men’s program in the sport over the last 40 years. 

And, as I mentioned earlier, many BetMGM players would find another UConn championship quite profitable. 

The major caveat here is, of course, the market. UConn is generally seen as the weakest of the four remaining teams in the 2026 Final Four, which makes a national championship far less likely than recent trips. 

This claim is supported by the fact that BetMGM’s UConn basketball odds are the longest of the four remaining teams. 

Recall in Hurley’s first championship season, 2023, that the other Final Four opponents that year were No. 5 seed Miami (FL), No. 5. San Diego State, and No. 9 Florida Atlantic. By the time UConn reached the Final Four, the Huskies were huge favorites to win.

One year later, UConn entered the NCAA Tournament having gone 20-1 since Christmas. They entered the first round as favorites to win it all and were -190 by the time the Final Four was set.

This weekend’s remaining games present a far stiffer challenge. UConn will be outgunned in terms of talent, with Illinois and Arizona both putting 2026 NBA lottery picks on the court. 

There’s also the fact that UConn needed a miraculous win to get past not-quite-healthy Duke. It turned out to be one of the biggest comebacks in the history of March Madness, punctuated by one of the greatest game-winners in the history of March Madness. Sheesh!

UConn fans and players should feel quite proud of the history they’re building. The Huskies are quickly climbing the ranks of the men’s college basketball programs with the most Final Four appearances. But as far as this weekend goes, they’ll be major dogs to cut down the nets. 

Perhaps they’d be even longer to win if the name on the front of the jersey wasn’t UConn.

Most Outstanding Player Odds

The John R. Wooden Award might as well be mailed to Cam Boozer at this point. BetMGM closed its Wooden Award odds market in February, with Boozer already priced at -5000. 

Fortunately, if you like betting on college basketball awards, there’s another opportunity still available – the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player odds. 

This is a tournament MVP award, and it’s been consistently given to a player on the championship team for more than 40 years. 

Since Michigan is currently the title favorite, it makes sense that the Wolverines’ best player, Yaxel Lendeborg, is the current market favorite at +230.

There are some interesting opportunities here for bettors to experiment with contrarian approaches.

For example, if you think Michigan is going to beat Arizona and win the title, but you think Yaxel Lendeborg is being overvalued because of his name recognition, you could throw a nice dart with center Aday Mara at 18-to-1. His defense has been the central pillar that Michigan has built on top of this year, and he’s averaging about 14 points and three blocks per game during the tournament. 

Here’s another scenario. Maybe you like Illinois as an overlooked challenger that has an easier path to the championship game than either Michigan or Arizona. However, you think Keaton Wagler is being hugely overpriced in this market because he’s a lottery pick. Wagler (+700) is the only Illinois player shorter than 25-to-1.

Illinois forward David Mirkovic is averaging a double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) during this tournament, but is available at 40-to-1 in the MOP market. It’s a lucrative corner to stand on – if you think Illinois can beat the winner of the other semifinal game. 

There are many opportunities to experiment in this market. So far, BetMGM users are mostly playing it safe, with more than one-third of tickets and nearly 60% of all handle tied up in Lendeborg, Brayden Burries, and Jaden Bradley.