Big 12 charging at title favorite Michigan, Cameron Boozer cruising

Written by Chase Kiddy — Michigan was knocked from the dwindling ranks of college basketball’s unbeaten teams last weekend. 

For now, the Wolverines remain the favorite in BetMGM’s college basketball national championship odds market. But as conference play unfolds and the futures market matures, other top challengers may look more interesting.

Big 12 Charging at Title Favorite Michigan

Michigan (+400) tore through the latter part of its nonconference schedule, smoking several top-75 KenPom teams by 25 points or more. The Wolverines quickly became the top futures choice for BetMGM players in the national championship market.

As of Jan. 12, Michigan accounted for 12% of all tickets and 15% of all money wagered in BetMGM’s title market. Both numbers are market highs. 

But the Wolverines stumbled as the calendar year turned over. They barely survived a trip to Penn State (9-7, 0-5), escaping Happy Valley with a 74-72 win on Jan. 6. 

Four days later, they lost to Wisconsin at home, 91-88. They’re now 0-3 ATS over the last 10 days.

Aggressive futures bettors who are looking to diversify beyond the tip of the market will be searching for challengers to a Michigan team that may have peaked a few months too early. The top hunting ground may be the Big 12.

Houston (+1400) was the preseason conference favorite and an early target among futures bettors. The Cougars still account for a sizable 7% of the national championship ticket market. 

But the top of the Big 12 has mostly been overtaken by top-five teams with Arizona (+450) and Iowa State (+1100). Arizona, in particular, profiles like an obvious Final Four team in March, with KenPom-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies that both rank in the national top five. 

So far, the market has been quick to adjust its Wildcats’ title odds, but the public has been slower to target them. Arizona accounted for 6.6% of bets as of Jan. 12, which still lagged behind many top preseason options like Purdue and UConn. 

As for the Cyclones, they dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten this week after an ill-fated trip to Allen Fieldhouse. But Iowa State is still on pace to contend for a No. 1 seed in March, which could suggest its current price point and 3.2% market handle are a bit underweight relative to its fundamentals.

Nebraska, Vanderbilt Surprise Betting Markets With Unbeaten Runs

Arizona isn’t the only still-undefeated team surging in the college basketball odds market. Nebraska – not Michigan – is the last remaining perfect team in the Big Ten. 

But handicappers don’t quite buy Fred Hoiberg’s Nebraska team as a real contender, even at cost. Nebraska currently sports a 17-0 record that includes five Quad 1 wins, yet only 0.5% of BetMGM players are holding a national championship ticket with the Cornhuskers – roughly the same popularity among bettors as teams like Syracuse and Ohio State. And this undefeated team is still +4000 to win the NCAA Tournament, halfway through January!

There are multiple Big Ten teams a savvy bettor could make the case for, including other potentially undervalued challengers like Michigan State. But Nebraska moves the ball well on offense and plays good defense, so the skepticism could be less about the basketball and more about the brand. 

Elsewhere, in SEC country, Vanderbilt was undefeated until its Wednesday trip to Austin. The Longhorns shot 53% from the field and used a late first-half run to take control of the game, ultimately knocking Vanderbilt from the ranks of the last undefeated teams in college basketball. 

In the big picture, Vanderbilt remains a clear favorite to win the SEC regular-season title. It can solidify its position this weekend with a home win against reigning national champion Florida. Aside from the Commodores and Gators, no other team is currently shorter than +900 to win the SEC.

Vanderbilt head coach Mark Byington is now in his second year in Nashville after coming down from JMU in 2024. The Commodores play disruptive defense, ranking first nationally in block percentage (4.7%) and third nationally in steal percentage (6.6%). On offense, their effective field goal percentage is just shy of 58%. 

While not as statistically dominant as last year’s Florida team, Vanderbilt does have the kind of balance, speed, and skill that propelled the Gators to the top of a deep SEC last year. 

Despite the improved positioning of the SEC in college basketball and the location of Vanderbilt in a legal online sports betting state, BetMGM players have been reluctant to buy the Commodores – even at longer prices. Vanderbilt accounts for barely 1% of all championship tickets, despite its current 30-to-1 price.

Does Cam Boozer Already Have the Wooden Award Locked Up?

Cameron Boozer is currently a -220 favorite in the John Wooden award odds market. The freshman big is a deserving favorite, shooting an effective field goal rate of 63% and scoring at least 14 points in every game this year. He’s also averaging two steals per game over the last month of competition.

Is that enough to make Duke great this year? Maybe not. Duke is right behind Michigan as the No. 2 most popular championship ticket on BetMGM this year, but the Blue Devils might not have the depth of talent they did last year. 

A return to the Final Four is priced at +240. Boozer’s personal accolades look increasingly likely, but Duke itself could be more of an uncertainty in 2026.