2026 NFL Draft: Lance Zierlein unveils final mock for NFL.com with blockbuster Cowboys trade

The long wait is finally over. The 2026 NFL Draft is officially here, with the first round kicking off at 8 pm ET Thursday from Pittsburgh, Pa., with the three-day event broadcast on ESPN and NFL Network. But before the NFL officially starts the clock on the Las Vegas Raiders, NFL pundits are releasing their final mock draft projections for how the draft could play out this weekend.

That includes veteran NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein, who unveiled his 2026 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 on Wednesday, draft-day eve. And Zierlein delivered the goods, projecting four massive trades that would most certainly shake up Round 1 on Thursday night. That included a huge move by the Dallas Cowboys to jump into the Top 10 to land an elite pass rusher to help replace the loss of sack production following last season’s trade of Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers.

Zierlein also expects three quarterback-needy teams — the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and host Pittsburgh Steelers — could be active Thursday with potential moves up and down Round 1, though he surprisingly doesn’t expect any to do so with the intention of selecting former Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

With all that in mind, let’s check out Zierlein‘s final 2026 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 released Wednesday:

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

This selection has effectively been set in stone since the Raiders brass watched Mendoza deliver the Hoosiers’ the program’s first-ever national title in football in person back in January. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner will be the new franchise QB in the Sin City after leading college football with 41 passing touchdowns in 2025.

Zierlein: “Mendoza has the opportunity to take in advice from Tom Brady and learn from Kirk Cousins as he grows into the ‘face of the franchise’ role in Las Vegas.”

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

This selection has also been in the works for weeks now, with the Jets widely expected to choose between Bailey and Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese. While other mocks project Reese here, the latest rumor is the pick will be Bailey, a more natural pass rusher who led the FBS with 14.5 sacks last season.

Zierlein: “The Jets go with the here-and-now pass rusher over the potential of Arvell Reese. Bailey attacks the pocket like a slashing guard on the basketball court.”

3. Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

This is where Round 1 could really get interesting. Will some opportunistic team swing for the fences and trade up ahead of the Titans to land the 2025 Doak Walker Award winner? Zierlein expects such a trade might be too rich, and the Cardinals will simply stay home and take the uber-explosive Love here instead.

Zierlein: “It turns out the late smoke comes from a fire. If the Cardinals can’t trade the pick, they stick and take their best available, regardless of positional value.”

4. Tennessee Titans: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

With Love off the board, Zierlein projects the Titans will turn to the other side of the ball and land arguably the draft’s most athletic defender in Styles. The 6-foot-5, 244-pound converted safety wowed NFL personnel with eye-popping athleticism at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

Zierlein: “Tennessee could take Arvell Reese but instead opts for his Ohio State teammate. Styles is the type of versatile, traits-based linebacker that new head coach Robert Saleh covets.”

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

While the Giants could go a lot of different ways here, Zierlein believes new coach John Harbaugh will rely on his Ravens tenure and take Downs, a jack-of-all-trades safety who can do it all at all three levels. Downs is considered the draft’s safest, most pro-ready prospect and an immediate upgrade in New York.

Zierlein: “John Harbaugh values the safety position and is looking to create a strong culture in the building. Downs makes plenty of sense here for the Giants.”

6. Dallas Cowboys (projected trade with CLE*): Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

This is where the fun begins with Zierlein’s first trade as the Cowboys move up from No. 12 to secure a versatile pass rusher in Reese, who many think could go as high as No. 2. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound Reese was a key piece of the Buckeyes’ FBS-leading defense last season with 69 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 2025.

Zierlein: “Reese’s slide comes to an end, as the Cowboys jump up and try to hit another home run with a linebacker/edge hybrid who has a chance to light up quarterbacks with his rush.”

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

The early run on Ohio State superstars reaches four straight as the Commanders nab the 6-foot-2 Tate, a natural big-play threat who ranked third in the Big Ten with 17.16 yards per catch in 2025. Tate would pair with another WRU alum in Terry McLaurin to give third-year QB Jayden Daniels another option outside.

Zierlein: “The Jayden Daniels hype cooled down after an injury-riddled sophomore campaign, but giving the quarterback a premium running mate for Terry McLaurin … could heat the offense back up again.”

8. New Orleans Saints: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Not to be outdone, the Saints follow suit and hand second-year quarterback Tyler Shough a much-needed big-play weapon on the outside opposite Buckeyes alum Chris Olave. The 6-foot-2 Tyson is also a natural playmaker, even if he has a troubling history of multiple injuries throughout college.

Zierlein: “There is a chance Tyson goes earlier than this, but if he’s still available, the Saints could have an easy selection, giving Tyler Shough a second legitimate weapon alongside resurgent receiver Chris Olave.”

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

If the draft plays out like this, the Chiefs shouldn’t hesitate to nab Delane, who is widely believed to be the draft’s best lockdown corner. The 6-foot, 187-pound Delane, who finished second in the SEC with 11 pass break-up in 2025, helps fill a key position of need after losing both of last year’s starting CBs.

Zierlein: “Following the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, the Chiefs pounce on the draft’s top cover man with their initial first-round pick.”

10. New York Giants (via CIN): Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami

After trading away veteran defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals last week, the Giants shore up their offensive line by selecting Mauigoa, the draft’s most NFL-ready offensive lineman. The 6-foot-5, 329-pound Mauigoa anchored the right side of Miami’s line last year but could also find a home at guard.

Zierlein: “With their second top-10 pick, the Giants take the first offensive lineman. Mauigoa is a pedigreed prospect who should offer high-level guard/tackle flexibility.”

NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein’s 2026 NFL Mock Draft 4.0, pick Nos. 11-32

11. Miami Dolphins: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami
12. Cleveland Browns (projected trade with DAL*): Spencer Fano, OL, Utah
13. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL): Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
14. Baltimore Ravens: Olavavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
16. New York Jets (via IND): Makai Lemon, WR, USC
17. Detroit Lions: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
18. Minnesota Vikings: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
19. Carolina Panthers: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
20. Dallas Cowboys (via GB): Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
21. Cleveland Browns (projected trade with PIT**): Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (projected trade with CLE**): Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
25. Chicago Bears: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
26. Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with BUF***): Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
27. San Francisco 49ers: Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
28. New York Jets (projected trade with HOU****): Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR): Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF
30. Miami Dolphins (via DEN): Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
31. New England Patriots: Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
32. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame