Who has advantage in Indiana vs. Miami national title game?

MIAMI GARDENS – In case there was ever any doubt, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti cleared it up the day before his No. 1 Hoosiers and No. 10 Miami meet for the College Football Playoff national title.

“You don’t go to war with warm milk and cookies,” Cignetti said.

Monday’s ‘war’ at Hard Rock Stadium may be cookie-less but there’s still plenty on the line. Indiana seeks its first national title, while Miami bids for its first national championship since 2001 and sixth overall.

Favorites have convincingly won the last six championships by an average of 25 points. This bodes well for the Hoosiers (15-0), who are 8½-point favorites. The Hurricanes (13-2) are trying to become the third largest underdog to win a national championship in 27 years.

So how will Monday night’s game play out? I was in Pasadena and watched Indiana roll the Tide in their Rose Bowl quarterfinal. A week later in Phoenix, I witnessed Miami ending Ole Miss’ magical run in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.

The biggest advantage for Indiana is the Hoosiers’ run game against the Hurricanes’ defense. Led by Roman Hemby, the Hoosiers have the Big Ten’s top rushing offense and rank No. 12 nationally.

The Hoosiers’ offense also ranks and first in finishing drives and fourth in rushing success, according to Pro Football Focus.

“For us we’ve got to stop the run,” Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherton said. “They do a really good job of running the football and staying on track. They do a really good job of keeping the pocket clean for the quarterback, because they put themselves ahead of the sticks in a lot of these situations.

“We’ve got to do a good job early in the game and stop the run. Then they do a really good job mixing it up. RPOs, quake game or shots early in the down.

“We have to try to make sure our guys are detailed in and they do some seven-man protection and work some slots. Our guys have to be able to handle slots and understand the motions are and how to counter back through it, understand how to handle it out with our simulators and our pressures.”

Besides stopping the Hoosiers’ run game, Miami has to try and slow down Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. Indiana’s quarterback is on an unbelievable run in the playoffs with eight touchdown passes compared to only five incompletions.

“We’ve got a lot of confidence in our guys,” Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan said. “But we’re going to have to have great protection, give Fernando the time to throw the ball early.”

Added Hetherman: “There’s a reason why he won the Heisman. There’s a reason why he’s going to go where he is going to go in the draft right now.

“He is an unbelievable football player. He’s a really good competitor. You watch him, how he responds to different situations.”

Miami’s defense will be without starting suspended defensive back Xavier Lucas in the first half. Lucas must sit the opening half after being called for targeting in the second half of UM’s semifinal win vs. Ole Miss.

“We’ll keep a close eye on who they’re playing,” Shanahan said. “Where each guy is playing on the back end, especially at the corner spot. Just seems like that’s where they’ve had some guys in and out these last few weeks.”

Hetherman recognizes the challenge of facing Mendoza without Lucas.

“We’re not going to flinch,” Hetherman said. “We’re not going to blink. We’ve played some very good players. You watch these guys, I mean, they have a really good group of wide receivers. They have some backs that are really good players.

“We’re going to have our guys in different situations and we’re going to have to compete. I think the way we practice and prepare has our guys ready.”

Both teams are among the nation’s leaders in turnover margin. Indiana ranks No. 1 (+21), Miami is No. 12 (+11). The Hurricanes, however, rank among the nation’s 20 worst teams in tackling, according to PFF. Miami also allows touchdowns in 55 percent of opponents’ trips to the red zone.

“Obviously the goal is to get stops,” Hetherman said. “Get three and outs, get the ball back to the offense. They do a really good job staying ahead of the sticks. We have to make sure we stay ahead. If we do get in a red zone situation, we have to take away the four-point play.”

Indiana’s defense must contain running back Mark Fletcher, quarterback Carson Beck and wide receiver Malachi Toney. 

“One huge step that Carson has made is if the first one or two options to throw aren’t available, now he’s running,” Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines said. “And maybe it’s a gain of two or three yards and he hasn’t put his offense in peril in any way.

“I feel like he’s very much a point guard of this offense. He wants to distribute those plays to his playmakers. If those aren’t there, running it and gaining two, three yards is a positive play. I think that’s a big step for him. He’s not throwing the ball over. He’s protecting it.”

Beck’s favorite playoff target has been Toney, who has 15 catches in UM’s three playoff wins. 

“He’s probably the best slot we’ve seen,” Haines said. “I think it’s unbelievable when you watch him on film. The fact that he’s only a freshman, it’s mind-blowing because he plays like an upperclassman. He’s physical, obviously fast, very sudden.

“We need to be true to our leverage points, meaning if we’re in zone, if we’re in man, where’s our help at? We shouldn’t be expected to have to play Malachi Toney all over the field in isolation moments. We should be able to use leverage on him and to vice him. So staying true to our angles, and that should help us against the speedsters that Miami has, especially No. 10. He’s phenomenal.”

Indiana’s defense ranks in the top five against the run, tackling, coverage and takeaways, according to SportsSource Analytics.