March Madness: Ranking title contenders with historic KenPom data in Week 16

As March Madness approaches, there are countless ways to sort through the top contenders across college basketball. KenPom has become one of the sport’s go-to analytics and can provide plenty of unique insights into the best chances.

By studying the past five NCAA Tournament fields against the KenPom rankings, the average Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating of the teams that advance into the next round can help provide insight into the most important traits held by this year’s contenders.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Defense definitely matters for national championship contenders, and that trope is backed up by the KenPom data. Here is a look at how this season’s teams line up with the historic numbers.

National Champions

Meets averages: Michigan, Arizona, Duke
Offense only: Illinois, Purdue, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, BYU, Houston, Louisville, SMU
Defense only: Florida

Four teams meet the average KenPom numbers on both offense and defense of the past five national champions. To qualify in this group, each team must hold a KenPom Offensive Rating of 124.1 or higher and a Defensive Rating of 91.3 or lower. The consensus top-three teams in college basketball are now the only teams that meet both criteria.

Beyond this group, there are several programs that meet the average offensive metrics, and only one that meets the defense-only metrics. However, only one of the teams that meets the offense comes relatively close to joining the class of national championship contenders.

Final Four

Meets averages: Houston, Iowa State, Florida
Offense only: Texas Tech, NC State, Wisconsin, Utah State, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Yale, UConn, Providence, Georgia, Oklahoma, Santa Clara, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee
Defense only: Kansas, Michigan State

Three teams join the national championship contenders, meeting the slightly lower bar on offense and defense, which the Final Four teams since 2021 have averaged at KenPom. With an Offensive Rating above 121.3 and a Defensive Rating below 93.3, these teams are on the fringe of the top tier, including Florida, which formerly met the top-tier requirements.

Meanwhile, there are again significantly more teams that meet the offensive numbers than the defensive ones across college basketball. This tier also introduces more teams from across the bracket and the bubble, which could be worth marking as potential upset candidates.

Elite Eight

Meets averages: Michigan State, Kansas, Nebraska
Offense only: Villanova, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, UCF, Indiana, Tulsa, Texas A&M, St. Louis, St. John’s, VCU, Belmont, Akron, Cornell, LSU, UCLA
Defense only: N/A

The average Elite Eight team over the past five seasons has boasted an average Offensive Rating of 119.1 and an average Defensive Rating of 93.5, not far off at all from the Final Four category. While three teams join in this category, it appears defense is the biggest hurdle to clear still, as more data is collected.

Meanwhile, many of the remaining NCAA Tournament teams do meet the offensive threshold, which continues to drop. There is also a handful of mid-major programs that have put together the resume to join this conversation on one end.

Sweet 16

Meets averages: Gonzaga
Offense only: Colorado State, Missouri, St. Mary’s, Miami, George Washington, High Point, Colorado, Liberty
Defense only: Cincinnati

After no teams met this criteria last week, Gonzaga joins those above them in this Sweet 16 category. The threshold by KenPom averages over the past five seasons sits at 117.7 in Offensive Rating and 93.5 in Defensive Rating.

There are still a handful more bubble teams that can check the offensive box of teams that make a run into the second weekend, but just one which meet the — still lofty — defensive numbers. As defensive metrics appear to come more rarely among the top teams, it could become a defining piece.

Concern?

Misses averages: Illinois, Purdue, Vanderbilt, UConn, Louisville, Tennessee

While all of these six teams do meet the offensive threshold for at least the Final Four category, the defense falls short. Even with some of the top offenses in college basketball, there is enough of a problem on the other end of the floor to create concern heading into the NCAA Tournament.

These also fall relatively close to KemPom’s top teams — those which fall within the Top 16 of the metric’s final rankings — but did not make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. While they still have time to improve, there is room to grow on defense here.